Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program

The Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program (WITT) focuses on the activities and capabilities of countries like China, Russia, and Iran as well as the threat and evolution of paramilitary groups and terrorist networks

Led by Dr. Daniel Byman, the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program (formerly known as the Transnational Threats Project) conducts research and analysis on irregular and hybrid warfare, terrorism, and military operations. The program examines Chinese, Russian, and Iranian irregular and hybrid warfare activities, such as covert action, economic warfare, support to non-state partners, cyber operations, disinformation, political warfare, and espionage. It also assesses terrorist and paramilitary activities by such organizations as Lebanese Hezbollah, Shia militias, the Houthi movement (or Ansar Allah), the Islamic State, al Qaeda, and far-right and far-left extremist networks. Finally, the program researches the military capabilities of China, Russia, and other U.S. adversaries and examines how the United States and its allies can best respond.

The Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program conducts fieldwork overseas, builds and analyzes data sets, and utilizes satellite imagery and other types of qualitative and quantitative analysis. It also draws from an extensive network of policy experts from the U.S. and partner governments, Congress, academia, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. In partnership with CSIS’s Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab, the program translates its research into high-quality videos, podcasts, reports, visualizations, and other products designed to engage audiences and inform policy discussions through objective analysis. The Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program's work is highly valued by government officials, corporate executives, and other influential leaders seeking to understand, prevent, and counter transnational threats.

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Photo: Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu via Getty Images

Photo: Wojciech Grzedzinski/Anadolu via Getty Images

Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine

Russia has performed poorly on the battlefield in Ukraine and will likely hit the 1 million casualty mark in the summer of 2025. New CSIS data details Russia's slow rate of advance, heavy losses of equipment, and significant casualties.

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Brief by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe — June 3, 2025

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Photo: -/US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE/AFP/Getty Images

Photo: -/US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE/AFP/Getty Images

Why Didn’t Iran Use Terrorism

Why didn’t Iran turn to terrorism in a war that threatened its survival? Explanations may include disrupted networks, fears of retaliation, and strategic restraint—some factors suggest this is not a break from Iran's terrorism past, but a pause.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 13, 2026

All Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program Content

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Why Didn’t Iran Use Terrorism

Why didn’t Iran turn to terrorism in a war that threatened its survival? Explanations may include disrupted networks, fears of retaliation, and strategic restraint—some factors suggest this is not a break from Iran's terrorism past, but a pause.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 13, 2026

Audio Briefs

The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch

An audio version of “⁠The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch⁠,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Daniel Byman. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Daniel Byman — April 8, 2026

Audio Briefs

The Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Issues to Watch

A fragile ceasefire masks a far more dangerous reality: Iran’s nuclear ambitions unresolved, Lebanon destabilized, terrorism risks rising, and a shadow war between Israel and Iran poised to reignite at any moment.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 8, 2026

Audio Briefs

Who Is Winning the Iran War?

An audio version of “⁠Who Is Winning the Iran War?⁠,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Daniel Byman. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.  

Podcast Episode by Daniel Byman — April 2, 2026

Audio Briefs

Who Is Winning the Iran War?

The United States and Israel are devastating Iran's leadership and inflicting significant damage on Iran's already-weak military. Iran, however, is hitting back, and the biggest long-term costs to the United States are likely to be felt outside the Middle East.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — April 2, 2026

What Is Israel Trying to Accomplish in Lebanon?

Even as Israel and the United States fight in Lebanon, Israel is also in a major war with Hezbollah—a war designed to keep the group weak and off balance.

Commentary by Daniel Byman — March 19, 2026

Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base

This paper recommends extending defense-critical electric infrastructure designations to industrial nodes, creating dedicated permitting and finance pathways to facilitate energy production, and integrating energy resilience into supply chain risk assessments.

Brief by Joseph Majkut, Alexander Palmer, and Raj Sawhney — March 17, 2026