Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program

The Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program (WITT) focuses on the activities and capabilities of countries like China, Russia, and Iran as well as the threat and evolution of paramilitary groups and terrorist networks

Led by Dr. Daniel Byman, the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program (formerly known as the Transnational Threats Project) conducts research and analysis on irregular and hybrid warfare, terrorism, and military operations. The program examines Chinese, Russian, and Iranian irregular and hybrid warfare activities, such as covert action, economic warfare, support to non-state partners, cyber operations, disinformation, political warfare, and espionage. It also assesses terrorist and paramilitary activities by such organizations as Lebanese Hezbollah, Shia militias, the Houthi movement (or Ansar Allah), the Islamic State, al Qaeda, and far-right and far-left extremist networks. Finally, the program researches the military capabilities of China, Russia, and other U.S. adversaries and examines how the United States and its allies can best respond.

The Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program conducts fieldwork overseas, builds and analyzes data sets, and utilizes satellite imagery and other types of qualitative and quantitative analysis. It also draws from an extensive network of policy experts from the U.S. and partner governments, Congress, academia, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. In partnership with CSIS’s Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab, the program translates its research into high-quality videos, podcasts, reports, visualizations, and other products designed to engage audiences and inform policy discussions through objective analysis. The Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program's work is highly valued by government officials, corporate executives, and other influential leaders seeking to understand, prevent, and counter transnational threats.

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Featured Analysis

Photo: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images

Photo: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images

Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine

Despite claims of success in Ukraine, new CSIS data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains, with over 1.2 million casualties. Russia is also in decline as a major economic power with slow growth, weak productivity, and declining manufacturing.

Listen to Audio Brief

Brief by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe — January 27, 2026

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Latest Analysis

Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Terrorism

AI will not transform terrorism overnight. Its more likely effect is subtler: lowering barriers for extremist propaganda, recruitment, disinformation, and planning while strengthening counterterrorism tools and surveillance risks.

Brief by Daniel Byman and V.S. Subrahmanian — July 10, 2026

All Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program Content

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Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Terrorism

AI will not transform terrorism overnight. Its more likely effect is subtler: lowering barriers for extremist propaganda, recruitment, disinformation, and planning while strengthening counterterrorism tools and surveillance risks.

Brief by Daniel Byman and V.S. Subrahmanian — July 10, 2026

Russian Blood and Treasure: The Ballooning Costs of Putin’s War

Russia has suffered approximately 1.4 million casualties and 450,000 fatalities in Ukraine for only marginal territorial gains, according to new CSIS data. In addition, Ukraine has conducted deep strikes into Russian territory, including with AI-enabled drones.

Brief by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe — July 1, 2026

Wartime Footing: A Two-Front Strategy to Confront China and Russia

The United States and its allies face a growing threat from an axis led by China and Russia. This report outlines a two-war planning construct focused on Asia and Europe, and a wartime industrial base focused on low-cost unmanned systems and long-range precision strike.

Report by Seth G. Jones, Seamus P. Daniels, Riley McCabe, and Daniel Byman — June 8, 2026

The Terrorist Threat to the 2026 World Cup

The 2026 World Cup will be the largest sporting event ever held and a magnet for terrorists of all stripes. A new CSIS brief examines who might attack, what targets are at greatest risk, and the countermeasures being deployed.

Brief by Daniel Byman and Riley McCabe — May 27, 2026

Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2026

Terrorism is currently declining as a U.S. national security priority, and resources available for counterterrorism are decreasing accordingly. At the same time, uncertainty regarding the future of global terrorism is increasing, bringing greater risk of surprise.

Report by CSIS Scholars — May 26, 2026