Futures Lab

Embracing data science, artificial intelligence/machine learning and alternative analysis to revolutionize policy-driven research

Banner image: Dr. Benjamin Jensen/Created using the Midjourney web app

The Futures Lab

Our goal is to add empirical rigor to foresight and policy analysis through the integration of computational social science methods. A changing world calls for new research methods that unlock diverse perspectives and creativity. While our focus is on the changing character of competition and conflict, our scholars have helped teams unlock insights on geoeconomics, innovation, development, migration, and human security as well. We conduct independent research, convene experts from diverse backgrounds, and offer robust reports with tailored policy recommendations that inform decision-making in a rapidly evolving landscape. Bring us your questions, concerns, and data and we will help you visualize and describe alternative futures.

Data Science and Forecasting

Look back to look ahead. The baseline prediction for any possible future starts with understanding past patterns and trends. The Futures Lab uses a diverse mix of statistical forecasting techniques to analyze how systems can change over time.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Elevate insight with AI. The Futures Lab employs a novel mix of AI/ML models, ranging from natural language processing to generative AI models to analyze continuity and change in the trends almost certain to create new geopolitical challenges in the 21st century. Our scholars have the technical training to tailor models to our partners specific needs and questions. Recently, the Futures Lab, in partnership with Scale AI, incorporates advanced large language models (LLMs) to analyze security and international affairs. Using Scale AI's Donovan Platform, we tailor LLMs to uncover deep insights in complex global security issues, aligning AI capabilities with strategic objectives. This initiative enhances our research in areas like strategic-level wargaming and domain-specific decision support, offering nuanced, data-driven strategies for a rapidly evolving world.

Red Teaming and Wargaming

Embrace uncertainty and creativity. When the future is uncertain, outliers reign. The Futures Lab uses a mix of red teaming and wargaming to help partners understand strategy as a complex system. Our approach to gaming integrates data analysis and controlled experiments to help partners generate and evaluate new strategies.

Scenario Modelling

Show the context surrounding decision making. The Futures Lab employs multiple scenario-generation and modeling techniques to stress test possible policy solutions to major global challenges. These methods range from traditional trend-based scenarios to formal modeling and campaign analysis.

This program is made possible through the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); United Nations: International Organization for Migration (IOM); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); General Atomics; Lockheed Martin; Meta; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA); Carnegie Corporation of New York; Gray Space Strategies; and Scale AI.

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All Futures Lab Content

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Audio Briefs

Grand Strategy in the Next Administration Starts with Connecting Markets

An audio version of “Grand Strategy in the Next Administration Starts with Connecting Markets,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen with Jacob Clayton. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen and Jacob Clayton — November 25, 2024

Audio Briefs

Grand Strategy in the Next Administration Starts with Connecting Markets

This commentary outlines how the next administration can leverage existing frameworks to secure U.S. economic growth by advancing energy infrastructure, digitizing trade systems for transparency, and fostering public-private partnerships to counter authoritarian influences globally.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jacob Clayton — November 21, 2024

A Military Strategy for Negotiations in Ukraine

CSIS senior fellow Ben Jensen shares how enhanced military strategies, weapon support, and innovative international partnerships can shift the balance, deter future aggression, and secure a stronger global defense framework.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — November 19, 2024

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Next National Security Council

As the National Security Council readies for transition, it’s time to move from static reports to AI-driven insights, creating a smarter, faster policy engine to guide the United States' national security strategy in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — November 13, 2024

Peace, Ceasefire, or Stalemate? How Wars End and the Road Ahead for Ukraine

Wars begin, end, or freeze in time. What does data reveal about Ukraine’s likely outcomes? With only 30% of interstate wars ending in victory and over half in stalemates or ceasefires, Ukraine's path may mirror modern conflict patterns.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — November 8, 2024

Audio Briefs

Toward a Foreign Policy Compromise in the Next Trump Administration

An audio version of “Toward a Foreign Policy Compromise in the Next Trump Administration,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen — November 6, 2024

Audio Briefs

Cockpit or Command Center? C2 Options for Collaborative Combat Aircraft

The future of airpower hinges on the U.S. Air Force’s ability to integrate autonomous drones into manned formations. This analysis explores the trade-offs between cockpit and command center–based control in shaping the next era of combat operations.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Christopher Koeltzow, Allen Agnes, and Eric Williams — October 29, 2024

Assessing Russian Firepower Strikes in Ukraine

Russia launched 11,466 missiles at Ukraine from September 2022–2024, with 83.5 percent intercepted daily. As Moscow escalates attacks, Ukraine's air defense evolves, but continued Western aid is vital for sustaining defense and enabling long-range counterstrikes.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — October 23, 2024

Audio Briefs

Assessing Russian Firepower Strikes in Ukraine

An audio version of “Assessing Russian Firepower Strikes in Ukraine,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — October 23, 2024

Audio Briefs