Transnational Threats

The threat from regional terrorist groups and domestic extremist individuals is omnipresent. CSIS provides strategic thinking on the range of efforts to counter terrorist groups and their methods across the world.

Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Photo: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Terrorism

AI will not transform terrorism overnight. Its more likely effect is subtler: lowering barriers for extremist propaganda, recruitment, disinformation, and planning while strengthening counterterrorism tools and surveillance risks.

Brief by Daniel Byman and V.S. Subrahmanian — July 10, 2026

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Seth G. Jones

Seth G. Jones

President, Defense and Security Department; Harold Brown Chair
Daniel Byman

Daniel Byman

Director, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program

Nikita Shah

Senior Fellow, Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program
Riley McCabe

Riley McCabe

Associate Fellow, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program

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Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Terrorism

AI will not transform terrorism overnight. Its more likely effect is subtler: lowering barriers for extremist propaganda, recruitment, disinformation, and planning while strengthening counterterrorism tools and surveillance risks.

Brief by Daniel Byman and V.S. Subrahmanian — July 10, 2026

Russian Blood and Treasure: The Ballooning Costs of Putin’s War

Russia has suffered approximately 1.4 million casualties and 450,000 fatalities in Ukraine for only marginal territorial gains, according to new CSIS data. In addition, Ukraine has conducted deep strikes into Russian territory, including with AI-enabled drones.

Brief by Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe — July 1, 2026

Iran Won the Negotiation, Even Though It Lost the War

The full text of the framework agreement with Iran is now public, and it is lopsided. Iran gets most of what it wants, and it gets it up front—before negotiations on a final deal even start. The United States gets very little. Israel gets even less.

Commentary by Emily Harding — June 18, 2026

The Cyber Threat to the 2026 World Cup

The 2026 World Cup is an attractive target for malicious cyber actors, and even more so against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflict. While preparation for such events is well rehearsed, maintaining resilience against threats will be paramount.

Commentary by Nikita Shah — June 11, 2026

The Terrorist Threat to the 2026 World Cup

The 2026 World Cup will be the largest sporting event ever held and a magnet for terrorists of all stripes. A new CSIS brief examines who might attack, what targets are at greatest risk, and the countermeasures being deployed.

Brief by Daniel Byman and Riley McCabe — May 27, 2026

Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2026

Terrorism is currently declining as a U.S. national security priority, and resources available for counterterrorism are decreasing accordingly. At the same time, uncertainty regarding the future of global terrorism is increasing, bringing greater risk of surprise.

Report by CSIS Scholars — May 26, 2026