ISP Brief April 2021

It's my pleasure to send you the April 2021 edition of the ISP Brief, the monthly newsletter of the CSIS International Security Program (ISP). The ISP Brief features CSIS reports and analysis written by our scholars and includes externally published articles, media highlights such as video interviews and podcasts, and links to recent and upcoming virtual events.

I welcome your feedback on this newsletter and its contents at ISPOutreach@csis.org . I also invite you to follow us on Twitter , LinkedIn , Instagram , and Facebook for the very latest on ISP's work.

Dr. Seth G. Jones
Senior Vice President
Harold Brown Chair
Director | International Security Program
CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
1616 Rhode Island Ave, NW | Washington, DC 20036


FEATURED

Civics as a National Security Imperative: A Conversation with U.S. Supreme Court Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Neil M. Gorsuch
CSIS's Suzanne Spaulding and the National Security Institute (NSI)'s Jamil Jaffer hosted a conversation with two Supreme Court Justices, Justice Sonia Sotomayor and Justice Neil Gorsuch , on the importance of civic education as a national security imperative. In a global environment where liberal democracies are facing a crisis of confidence and where authoritarian regimes are attempting to threaten the foundational premise of the rule of law, it is essential that the United States develops greater societal resilience against these threats and builds a strong foundation in civic education. The event received coverage on Reuters , CNN , Bloomberg , USA Today , Law and Crime , and ABC News .

Watch here .

What to Look for in the FY 2022 Defense Budget Request
The Biden administration is expected to release its first budget request for FY 2022 in May. The request marks the first budget since FY 2011 that is not subject to the discretionary spending limits imposed by the Budget Control Act. While the defense budget request for FY 2022 was developed predominantly under the previous administration, it will provide some direction as to the national security priorities of the new administration. Todd Harrison , Seamus P. Daniels , Mark C ancian , Dr. Tom Karako , and Wes Rumbaugh , experts from the CSIS International Security Program outline major issues to watch in the FY 2022 defense budget.

Read here .

A Conversation on the UK Integrated Review: Strategic Challenges and Opportunities for Defense and Diplomacy
CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues's Rebecca Hersman hosted a conversation on the strategic challenges and opportunities for defense and diplomacy in the UK Integrated Review 2021 with Mr. Angus Lapsley, Director General Strategy and International for UK Ministry of Defence, and Ms. Samantha Job, Director Defence and International Security for the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Watch here .

Space Threat Assessment 2021
The Space Threat Assessment 2021 reviews the open-source information available on the counterspace capabilities developed in the past year that can threaten U.S. space systems and the countries developing such systems. The report is intended to raise awareness and understanding of the newest threats, debunk myths and misinformation, and highlight areas in which senior leaders and policymakers should focus their attention.

Read the report by Todd Harrison , Kaitlyn Johnson , LtCol Joe Moye , and Makena Young here .

Counterspace Timeline
CSIS Aerospace Security Project created an interactive Counterspace Timeline, 1962 – 2020 which is comprised of tests, technology demonstrations, and unusual behaviors first identified in their annual Space Threat Assessment report series.

Find the timeline here .


ISP SPOTLIGHT

The Military, Police, and the Rise of Terrorism in the United States
In the CSIS Transnational Threats Project's latest brief, Dr. Seth G. Jones , Catrina Doxsee , Grace Hwang , and Jared Thompson examine how terrorist incidents linked to active-duty military and reserve personnel rose in 2020 to 6.4 percent, up from 1.5 percent in 2019 and none in 2018. Similarly, they found a growing number of current and former law enforcement officers have been involved in domestic terrorism in recent years.

Learn more and read the brief here .
 
The Rise of Domestic Extremism in America
Using the data from CSIS Transnational Threats Project's brief, The Washington Post, analyzed the data more in depth here .

Data Unpacked – The Military, Police, and Rising U.S. Terrorism
Dr. Seth G. Jones joined an episode of CSIS's Data Unpacked where he explains the new research by CSIS that shows terrorist plots and attacks in the United States are at their highest level in decades, and that U.S. military and law enforcement personnel are increasingly involved in a growing number of these domestic terrorist incidents. Watch the discussion of what the U.S. should do to combat domestic terrorism here .

Rise of Domestic Terror with CSIS’s Seth Jones
CSIS's The Truth of the Matter podcast with Andrew Schwartz also featured Dr. Seth G. Jones discussing his latest brief on the rise of domestic terrorism.

Listen on Apple. Listen on Spotify.

PUBLICATIONS

Can Islam and French Republican Values Coexist? by Hadeil Ali

Missile Defense is Compatible with Arms Control by Dr. Robert Soofer

Covid-19 Response Update: April 16-April 23 by William Healzer, Adam Saxton, and Mark Cancian

Into Thin Air: Aviation Security Force Assistance in Iraq and Afghanistan by Tobias Switzer

Did the pandemic make us better people? by Samuel Brannen

The USAF’s Bad Bets on Pilot Retention Show It Needs Outside Help by Brian Kruchkow and Tobias Switzer

Covid-19 Response Update: April 9-April 16 by William Healzer, Adam Saxton, and Mark Cancian

Salvaging the Iran Nuclear Deal: Round One in Vienna, and What Comes Next by Eric Brewer

Covid-19 Response Update: April 2-April 9 by William Healzer, Adam Saxton, and Mark Cancian

The Recent Push to Expand the Draft to Include Women, and Why It Still Faces an Uphill Climb by Rebecca Patterson and Heidi Urben

A Call for Persistence by Simone Williams

Want More People To Get Vaccinated? Give Them A Reason by Mark Cancian

Covid-19 Response Update: March 26-April 2 by William Healzer, Adam Saxton, and Mark Cancian

Finding common ground on homeland missile defense by Dr. Robert Soofer

The US military must plan for encounters with private military companies by Rodrick H. McHaty and LtCol Joe Moye


WELCOME TO ISP





CSIS is pleased to announce that Emily Harding , former deputy staff director of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI), has joined the International Security Program as senior fellow and deputy director. She will advance CSIS’s research agenda on intelligence, disinformation, emerging technologies, and hybrid warfare. Read the full press release here .

Read Ms. Harding's fist Critical Questions piece on The Intelligence Community’s Annual Threat Assessment here .



CSIS is pleased to announce that Jake Harrington has joined the International Security Program as intelligence fellow. His research at CSIS will focus on intelligence, technology, and irregular warfare. Read the full press release

MULTIMEDIA


Kaitlyn Johnson
joined an episode of Government Matters where she discussed how the U.S. must track the counterspace weapons development of both China and Russia. Watch here .


Mark Cancian participated in an event with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies where he discussed U.S. military preparedness amid growing threats. Watch here.

Greg Sanders was interviewed on Inside Defense where he discussed the Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle. Read here.


SiriusXM's Julie Mason Morning show spoke with Dr. Seth G. Jones about the rise of domestic terrorism in the U.S. Listen here.


Catrina Doxsee
spoke about the threat of individual domestic terrorists on KUNR Today. Listen here.


Dr. Seth G. Jones spoke about CSIS Transnational Threats Project's new brief on the rise of domestic terrorism on an episode of the Washington Journal. Watch here .


Todd Harrison joined an episode of Government Matters where he discussed how the removal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan would save up to $10 billion per year. Watch here.


Todd Harrison spoke on the DEFAERO Report Daily Podcast where he discussed CSIS Aerospace Security Project's latest report, Space Threat Assessment 2021, with Vago Muradian. Listen here.


Dr. Seth G. Jones appeared on an episode of NBC's Meet the Press where he spoke about the rise of domestic terrorism in the United States. Watch here.
Ian Williams discussed North Korea's missile threats on an episode of Arirang Korea's Peace & Prosperity. Watch here.

.
Eric Brewer discussed the Iran nuclear site on CBC Radio's "As It Happens with Carol Off and Chris Howden." Listen here.


Lindsey Sheppard
was a guest on the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue's podcast, The U.S.-China Conversation, where she discussed the growing U.S.-China technological divide. Listen here.


Mark Cancian joined an episode of Government Matters where he discussed how the defense budget could challenge the Army the most out of all the military branches. Watch here .


Makena Young spoke on an episode of Government Matters about how the Space Force’s sharing of technology with allies suggests confidence in capabilities. Watch here.


Mark Cancian and Adam Saxton joined WWL First News with Tommy Tucker where they discussed what the U.S. Military has learned in 2020. Listen here.


Carolina Ramos spoke on a National Policy Network panel about blockchain women on campus. Watch here.
 

ISP PODCASTS



Cyberattacks in the Time of Remote Work
Host Beverly Kirk is joined by Miriam Wugmeister , Partner at Morrison & Foerster and Co-Chair of its Global Privacy and Data Security Group, for a conversation about some of the digital issues the Covid-19 pandemic has brought to light, from cyberattacks and ransomware to privacy breaches.

Listen on Apple and Spotify.

Space as a Warfighting Domain
Host Beverly Kirk is joined by Kaitlyn Johnson , Deputy Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Fellow in the International Security Program, for a conversation about her recent reports on space threats, space as a warfighting domain, and the counterspace capabilities of countries around the world. Read “Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space: Protecting Space Systems from Counterspace Weapons” here and “Space Threat Assessment 2021” here.

Listen on Apple and Spotify.


 

UPCOMING ONLINE EVENTS

Gender Equality and Sustainability in Panama: A Conversation with Foreign Minister Erika Mouynes
Featuring: Foreign Minister Erika Mouynes
Hosted by: Nina Easton
Tuesday, May 4, 2021
1:00 p.m. ET

PONI Capstone Conference: Nuclear Deterrence and Posture Today
Featuring: Henry Gilchrist, Alice  Spilman, Tyler  Sagerstrom, and Adam Saxton
Hosted by: Bryn Woollacott
Wednesday, May 5, 2021
10:30 a.m. ET

PONI Capstone Conference: Keynote Address
Featuring: Admiral Charles “Chas” A. Richard
Hosted by: Rebecca Hersman
Wednesday, May 5, 2021
12:15 p.m. ET

Civics as a National Security Imperative: A Conversation with Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro
Featuring: Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro and Elizabeth Rindskopf Parker
Hosted by: Suzanne Spaulding
Wednesday, May 5, 2021
1:30 p.m. ET

PONI Capstone Conference: Challenges of Emerging Technology
Featuring: Lauren Kahn, Chris  Meskauskas, and Kathryn Dura
Hosted by: Dr. Sarah Shirazyan
Thursday, May 6, 2021
10:00 a.m. ET

PONI Capstone Conference: Deep Dive into Hypersonic Missiles and AI
Featuring: Aaron Kennedy, Julia Balm, Shahrukh Nasim, and Raymond Wang
Hosted by: Dr. James Johnson
Thursday, May 6, 2021
11:35 a.m. ET

Project Overmatch: A Conversation with RADM Douglas Small, USN
Featuring: Rear Admiral Douglas Small, USN
Hosted by: Dr. Seth G. Jones
Friday, May 7, 2021
1:00 p.m. ET

The Role of Integrated Air and Missile Defense for Strategic Deterrence
Featuring: LTG Daniel Karbler
Hosted by: Dr. Tom Karako
Friday, May 21, 2021
10:00 a.m. ET

CSIS Executive Education Course: Unpacking the Defense Enterprise
Featuring: Todd Harrison, Dr. Seth G. Jones, Mark Cancian, Lindsey Sheppard, and Gregory Sanders
APPLICATION DEADLINE: May 3, 2021
June 1 - June 4, 2021

PONI Conference Series : Summer Conference: Partnered with Los Alamos National Laboratory – Virtual
DEADLINE: Submit by May 17, 2021 to be considered for the Summer Conference.
July 13 - July 14, 2021

PONI Mid-Career Cadre
DEADLINE: Applications are currently open until May 31, 2021.

 

FUTURE STRATEGY FORUM: Opening Remarks, Opening Keynote, and Panel 1: Emerging Technologies and Warfighting
Opening Keynote: Anne Neuberger
Panel 1 Featuring: Evanna Hu, Dr. Nina Kollars, Dr. Ulrike Franke, and Julie George
Moderator: Sara Plana
Monday, May 10, 2021
3:30 p.m. ET

FUTURE STRATEGY FORUM: Emerging Technologies and Statecraft
Featuring: Camille Stewart, Ginny Badanes, Christie Lawrence, and Sanne Verschuren
Moderator: Suzanne Spaulding
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
1:00 p.m. ET

FUTURE STRATEGY FORUM: Janne Nolan Prize Winners: Technology in a Changing IR Landscape
Featuring: Saher Naumaan, Dr. John Emery, and Dr. Jane Vaynman
Moderator: Rachel Tecott
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
3:00 p.m. ET

FUTURE STRATEGY FORUM: Closing Keynote: Emerging Technologies and Nuclear Weapons with Rose Gottemoeller
Featuring: Rose Gottemoeller
Moderator: Beverly Kirk
Tuesday, May 11, 2021
4:00 p.m. ET

International Crisis War Game with Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider, Hoover Institution
Featuring: Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider, Benjamin Schechter, and Rachael Shaffer
Pre-Register by Wednesday, May 5, 2021, at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Wednesday, May 12, 2021
1:00 p.m. ET

PAST ONLINE EVENTS

The African Space Race
Featuring: Dr. Monica Juma, Dr. Julie Klinger, Temidayo Oniosun, and Todd Harrison
Hosted by: Judd Devermont
Friday, April 30, 2021



The UK Integrated Defense Review: A Conversation with General Sir Nick Carter
Featuring: General Sir Nick Carter GCB CBE DSO ADC Gen
Hosted by: Dr. Seth G. Jones Wednesday, April 28, 2021


Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space
Featuring: David Edmonson, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Frank Rose, and Todd Harrison
Hosted by: Victoria Samson
Thursday, April 15, 2021



The Dark Arts in Space: Developments in Counterspace Weapons
Featuring: LtCol Joe Moye, Victoria Samson, Brian Weeden, and Makena Young
Hosted by: Kaitlyn Johnson
Thursday, April 8, 2021



Understanding the DHS Cyber Mission
Featuring: Michael Daniel, Christopher Krebs, Tim Maurer, and Kemba Walden
Hosted by: Suzanne Spaulding
Wednesday, April 7, 2021



Cooperation or Competition: Planning for the Next National Security Strategy
Featuring: Dr. Nadia Schadlow, Hon. James B. Steinberg, and Dr. Seth G. Jones
Hosted by: Daniel F. Runde
Wednesday, April 7, 2021


MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

"Realistically speaking, the administration's North Korea strategy will probably be open to (an) approach in which North Korea's capabilities are capped or limited," said Eric Brewer to NBC News on April 17, 2021. "Even if denuclearization remains a component of the strategy, I find it hard to believe they wouldn't be open to more interim solutions that reduce the threat."

Andrew Hunter told The Hill on April 18, 2021, “What DARPA’s really good at is tackling the problems where the chances of success appear low, and it’s going to take a risk tolerance level that’s higher than defense R&D can usually take."

"The Five Eyes is the closest intel-sharing relationship group that exists," said Emily Harding in MSN on April 19, 2021 “Our relationship with the Brits is so close that we share a lot of stuff even before we process it.”