Middle East Notes and Comment: China Headaches for Iran Deal

China Headaches for Iran Deal

​​​​​When U.S. Iran envoy Rob Malley did a quick tour of key capitals prior to an important meeting of the IAEA board of governors September 13, he met the Western European signatories to the JCPOA in Paris and traveled on to Moscow to talk with the Russians. China is the signatory that didn’t get a visit. He didn’t go to Beijing, and Beijing didn’t come to him. It’s yet another sign that increasing Sino-American tensions are likely to seriously complicate U.S. efforts to constrain Iran’s nuclear program.

The conventional wisdom has long been that China isn’t interested in taking a prominent role in the Iran nuclear negotiations. China has allowed Russia to do the hard negotiating and the threatening, and when the time has come for a vote, China has supported whatever the Russians supported.

There are several reasons to think that this is starting to change.

Read Jon Alterman's commentary on the CSIS website.

From the Middle East Program

New Analysis

Will Todman covered the formation of Lebanon's new government in a new Critical Questions. Will broke down why the government formed now and the immediate hurdles and long-term challenges facing Prime Minister Najib Mikati's new government.

Jon released a commentary addressing how the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan will affect the United States' reputation around the world. Jon argues that it will undermine U.S. efforts everywhere else that they are asking people to take risks. Jon also discussed how Iran might react to the recent Taliban takeover in Afghanistan in a short video.

Will broke down Tunisian president Kais Saied's consolidation of power in another Critical Questions. Will addressed what's happening in Tunisia, why it's happening now, and how international actors are likely to react.

Babel: Translating the Middle East

In our most recent episode of Babel, Jon spoke with Monica Marks about President Saied's power grab in Tunisia and what it means for Tunisian democracy.

In another episode, Jon spoke with  Colin Clarke about what's at stake for Iran in Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal.

Jon also spoke with Daniel Yergin about the global energy transition, the longevity of oil, and the foreign policy implications of the U.S. shale oil revolution.

In another episode, Jon sat down with Sen. Chris Murphy to discuss the United States' relationship with Middle Eastern allies and its role in the region. 

Jon also spoke with Peter Salisbury about the war in Yemen and what's at stake in the battle for Marib.

We also released four new mezze episodes: one on balancing labor rights and climate change priorities in Qatar, one on agricultural competition in Morocco, one on indoor farming tech in Abu Dhabi, and one on the growing role of women in Syria's labor market.

Events

On September 14, 2021, the Middle East Program hosted His Royal Highness Prince El Hassan bin Talal of Jordan for a discussion about the relationship between sustainable public utilities and regional cooperation and security in the Middle East. This event helped mark the publication of our latest report, "Sustainable States: Environment, Governance, and the Future of the Middle East."

Next Wednesday, September 29 at 10 AM ET, the Middle East Program will host Jordanian finance minister Mohamad al-Ississ for a conversation about the impacts of Covid-19 on Jordan's economy. 

In the News

​​​​Natasha Hall told Middle East Eye that "as Lebanon crumbles, Hezbollah and Iran will make a big show about picking up the pieces only to entrench these countries further." (08/30/21)

Will spoke about the subdued U.S. response to President Saied's power grab in Tunisia. He told Middle East Eye that there isn't "enormous alarm in [the] administration that this is a coup or that Saied has authoritarian designs." (08/06/21).