Is 2026 the most dangerous year for U.S.–Mexico relations in a century?

In this episode, Mariana Campero is joined by Professor Rafael Fernández de Castro, Director of the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at U.C. San Diego and former foreign policy advisor to Mexican President Felipe Calderón. They unpack his recent paper for the Aspen Strategy Group, which makes the case that U.S.-Mexico relations are facing their most acute breaking point since the 1920s.

From the economic impact of annual USMCA "rolling sunset" reviews to growing tension over U.S. extradition demands and visa revocations, the three foundational pillars of U.S.–Mexico relations—trade, migration, and national security—are being stressed simultaneously by both Washington’s protectionism and Mexico’s domestic policy choices. They also discuss how Mexico’s administration shifted from pragmatic engagement to open defiance over high-profile U.S. extraditions, and where the line on Mexican sovereignty is drawn, they discern how much of Mexico’s economic slowdown stems from trade and USMCA uncertainty versus domestic choices like judicial reform, and how Mexico’s plummeting fertility rate (1.2 nationally, 0.8 in Mexico City) rewrites the long-term migration equation and labor dynamics.  Finally, Rafael recommends that Mexico should diversify its relationship with the White House by working on state-to-state alliances with U.S. governors to serve as a shield against White House changing priorities.