Strategic Headwinds: Understanding the Forces Shaping Ukraine’s Path to Peace

This series—led by the Futures Lab and featuring scholars across CSIS—explores emerging challenges and opportunities likely to shape peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

Banner image: Benjamin Jensen/AI-generated art created using a combination of Midjourney and Fodor

The conflict in Ukraine, like most modern wars, appears increasingly likely to culminate in some form of a negotiated settlement. To help policymakers in Washington, Kyiv, Brussels, and beyond prepare for this critical phase, CSIS Futures Lab is launching a new series: Strategic Headwinds. This series explores the prevailing trends and dynamics—collectively known as strategic headwinds—that complicate ceasefire talks and peace negotiations. These factors encompass a broad spectrum, including the geopolitics of energy and food security, the role of advanced technologies, shifting demographic trends, and the evolving U.S.-China relationship. While war is often described as the continuation of politics by other means, politics itself is shaped by these broader, interconnected forces.

Over the next two weeks, scholars from across CSIS will provide insights into these challenges and their potential impact on the negotiations ahead. Our goal is to support democratically elected leaders and their allies as they work to ensure Ukraine enters any talks from a position of strength.

The stakes are immense: how wars end shapes global order, establishes—or undermines—international norms, and determines whether the aftermath fosters peace or deepens global instability.

By shedding light on strategic headwinds shaping Ukraine’s path to peace, CSIS aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the forces at play and support efforts to secure a just and lasting resolution to this pivotal conflict.

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Photo: GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Putin Thinks He Can Win: Why Would He Negotiate?

A belief that the war is going his way will make Russian president Vladimir Putin an inflexible negotiating partner.

Commentary by Emily Harding and Aosheng Pusztaszeri — December 17, 2024

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Audio Briefs

Putin Thinks He Can Win: Why Would He Negotiate?

An audio version of “Putin Thinks He Can Win: Why Would He Negotiate?,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Emily Harding and Aosheng Pusztaszeri. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Emily Harding and Aosheng Pusztaszeri — December 19, 2024

Audio Briefs
Audio Briefs

Ukraine’s Westward Shift

An audio version of “Ukraine’s Westward Shift,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Alexander Palmer. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Alexander Palmer — December 19, 2024

Audio Briefs
Audio Briefs

What Role Can Turkey Play in Ukraine Negotiations?

An audio version of “What Role Can Turkey Play in Ukraine Negotiations?,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Yasir Atalan. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Yasir Atalan — December 19, 2024

Audio Briefs
Audio Briefs

Winning the Peace Means Winning the Information War

An audio version of “Winning the Peace Means Winning the Information War,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Emily Harding and Julia Dickson. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Emily Harding and Julia Dickson — December 19, 2024

Audio Briefs