Yasir Atalan

Deputy Director and Data Fellow, Futures Lab, Defense and Security Department
Yasir Atalan

Yasir Atalan is a deputy director and data fellow in the Futures Lab at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His research focuses on technology and international security, with particular emphasis on how artificial intelligence is reshaping conflict dynamics. Dr. Atalan examines how AI agents can be responsibly integrated into defense and foreign policy systems by enabling agentic decision-support workflows. He also studies the changing character of warfare and civil-military relations. Atalan’s research has been featured in the New York Times, CNN, Financial Times, BBC, Foreign Policy, Business Insider, War on the Rocks, and Defense One, as well as in peer-reviewed journals. He also serves as a faculty fellow at the Center for Data Science at American University, where he contributes to computational social science initiatives. Previously, he worked as a replication analyst for the journal Political Analysis at Cambridge University Press. He received his PhD in political science from American University, an MA in Middle Eastern studies from King’s College London, and a BS in political science and international relations from Bogazici University.

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A Tale of Two Strategic Attacks: The Race to End the War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is now a race between two competing, attritional theories of victory. While Ukraine is focused on maximizing drone production, high payoff deep strikes to hold Russia’s oil and gas, Moscow is trying target critical infrastructure and major political and economic centers like Kyiv to coerce Ukraine.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — July 15, 2026

The Geography of Coercion: Russian Missile and Drone Campaigns in Ukraine

How does Russia decide where to strike? This analysis maps the evolving geography of Russian missile and drone attacks, revealing how Moscow targets Ukraine’s military, infrastructure, and cities to maximize coercive pressure.

Brief by Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman — July 7, 2026

What to Know About Chinese AI Models

Chinese AI models are rapidly closing the gap with U.S. frontier systems. This analysis examines what their growing capabilities, lower costs, and open-weight strategy mean for global AI competition and U.S. policy.

Critical Questions by Yasir Atalan — July 2, 2026

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What to Know About Chinese AI Models

An audio version of "⁠What to Know About Chinese AI Models⁠," a new critical questions by CSIS’s Yasir Atalan. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Yasir Atalan — July 2, 2026

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Audio Briefs

The AI Escalation Danger Trump and Xi Must Address

An audio version of "⁠The AI Escalation Danger Trump and Xi Must Address⁠," a new Commentary by CSIS's Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — May 12, 2026

Audio Briefs

The AI Escalation Danger Trump and Xi Must Address

As Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing on May 14–15 to discuss the future of U.S.-China AI cooperation, concerns are growing over escalatory tendencies in models like DeepSeek. Common AI benchmarking may offer a path toward safer development.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — May 12, 2026

AI and the Future of Mediation

As conflicts grow more complex and harder to resolve, AI offers new tools for mediation, but also new risks. This report explores how algorithmic systems can support negotiators without undermining trust, confidentiality, or human judgment.

Report by Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Ian Reynolds — April 27, 2026

The Sudan War in 10 Charts

Sudan's civil war has entered its fourth year as the world's largest, most underfunded, and most overlooked humanitarian crisis.

Commentary by CSIS Scholars — April 17, 2026