Jose M. Macias III

Associate Data Fellow, Futures Lab, Defense and Security Department
Jose Macias

Jose M. Macias is an associate data fellow in the Futures Lab within the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). His research focuses on the quantitative study of war, with particular interests in interstate and intrastate conflicts, great power competition, and socioeconomic grievances. With the Futures Lab, Jose applies quantitative methodologies to international relations research. To this end, he speaks R fluently and has intermediate proficiency in Python. His workflow includes data wrangling, cleaning, visualization, and modeling using machine learning techniques (NLP, LDA, LASSO), regression models (OLS, DiD, RDD), GIS applications (kernel density estimations, shortest-distance analyses), and general data analytics. Jose has contributed to the Correlates of War project, including notable work quantifying the effects of U.S. bilateral counterterrorism treaties in the Global South and Eastern Europe. He also served as a cyber strategy intern at the U.S. Department of Defense and Army Cyber Command, working on the Dyadic Cyber Conflict Dataset (v2.0). Additionally, he was a fellow with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute, serving under U.S. Senator Angus S. King’s defense team and managing the cybersecurity portfolio. While at CSIS, Jose completed a master of public policy at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, where he specialized in data analytics and was a Pearson fellow at the Pearson Institute for the Study and Resolution of Global Conflicts. As a first-generation student, he earned an associate of arts degree in political science from Fullerton College and a dual BA in political science and international relations from the University of California, Davis.

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Operational Fires in the Age of Punishment

Russia’s decoupling of firepower from maneuver in Ukraine signals a dangerous shift toward punitive, algorithmic warfare—forcing NATO to rethink doctrine, deterrence, and the role of human-machine integration in future conflicts.

Report by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — May 6, 2025

How to Defend Ukraine’s Skies During Peace Negotiations

How many aircraft are needed to secure Ukraine’s airspace during a ceasefire? As history shows, deterrence requires strength. This analysis examines the force posture necessary to uphold stability and prevent Russian provocation.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen, Mark Montgomery, and Jose M. Macias III — March 7, 2025

Audio Briefs

How to Defend Ukraine’s Skies During Peace Negotiations

An audio version of “How to Defend Ukraine’s Skies During Peace Negotiations,” a new commentary by CSIS's Benjamin Jensen, Mark Montgomery, and Jose M. Macias III. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen, Mark Montgomery, and Jose M. Macias III — March 7, 2025

Audio Briefs

Competition in the Shadow of Technology

Technological advancements are reshaping international relations and deterrence strategies; this report examines the strategic calculus behind revealing disruptive military capabilities and their impact on great power competition in an era of unprecedented innovation.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, Can Mutlu, and Jose M. Macias III — December 16, 2024

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Next National Security Council

As the National Security Council readies for transition, it’s time to move from static reports to AI-driven insights, creating a smarter, faster policy engine to guide the United States' national security strategy in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — November 13, 2024

Peace, Ceasefire, or Stalemate? How Wars End and the Road Ahead for Ukraine

Wars begin, end, or freeze in time. What does data reveal about Ukraine’s likely outcomes? With only 30% of interstate wars ending in victory and over half in stalemates or ceasefires, Ukraine's path may mirror modern conflict patterns.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III — November 8, 2024

Audio Briefs

Maintaining NATO Cohesion in the Gray Zone

An audio version of “Maintaining NATO Cohesion in the Gray Zone,” a new commentary by Brandon Valeriano, Mikkell Storm Jensen, and CSIS's Jose M. Macias III. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Brandon Valeriano, Mikkell Storm Jensen, and Jose M. Macias III — July 12, 2024

Audio Briefs

Maintaining NATO Cohesion in the Gray Zone

In the future, NATO will begin to confront strategic challenges that will create new risks to alliance cohesion brought on by the rise of multi-domain operations. The alliance must now consider developing strategies that include partner nations in novel operations.

Commentary by Brandon Valeriano, Mikkel Storm Jensen, and Jose M. Macias III — July 8, 2024

Using Artificial Intelligence to Rethink the Unified Command Plan

This edition of On Future War explores how the U.S. military can benefit from creative artificial intelligence tools to integrate cyber, space, and electronic warfare, better organizing the national security apparatus and ensuring readiness for modern global competition.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Kathleen McInnis, and Jose M. Macias III — June 17, 2024