Jose M. Macias III

Associate Fellow, Futures Lab
Jose Macias

Jose M. Macias is an associate fellow in the Futures Lab within the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). His research focuses on the quantitative study of war, with particular interests in interstate and intrastate conflicts, great power competition, and socioeconomic grievances. With the Futures Lab, Jose applies quantitative methodologies to international relations research. To this end, he speaks R fluently and has intermediate proficiency in Python. His workflow includes data wrangling, cleaning, visualization, and modeling using machine learning techniques (NLP, LDA, LASSO), regression models (OLS, DiD, RDD), GIS applications (kernel density estimations, shortest-distance analyses), and general data analytics. Jose has contributed to the Correlates of War project, including notable work quantifying the effects of U.S. bilateral counterterrorism treaties in the Global South and Eastern Europe. He also served as a cyber strategy intern at the U.S. Department of Defense and Army Cyber Command, working on the Dyadic Cyber Conflict Dataset (v2.0). Additionally, he was a fellow with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute, serving under U.S. Senator Angus S. King’s defense team and managing the cybersecurity portfolio. While at CSIS, Jose completed a master of public policy at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, where he specialized in data analytics and was a Pearson fellow at the Pearson Institute for the Study and Resolution of Global Conflicts. As a first-generation student, he earned an associate of arts degree in political science from Fullerton College and a dual BA in political science and international relations from the University of California, Davis.

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China’s Weaponization of Dual-Use Research Vessels for Undersea Data Dominance

Analysis of 223 vessels finds that Chinese research ships spend an unusually large share of time near subsea infrastructure on the high seas. The findings call for stronger allied monitoring, coordinated patrols, and faster cable repair.

Report by Jose M. Macias III, Tao-Hung Chang, Nico Vacca, and Benjamin Jensen — October 8, 2026

The Melting Arctic Lifeline for Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Two floating storage vessels have handled an estimated 53 percent of Russia’s seaborne Arctic crude exports since February 2022. CSIS Futures Lab analysis shows how the United States and Europe can target these bottlenecks to constrain the Kremlin’s wartime revenue.

Commentary by Tobias Oestreich, Jose M. Macias III, and Benjamin Jensen — September 23, 2026

How to Lose an Information War in 10 Days

The United States cannot win modern wars on the battlefield alone. To counter adversaries’ information operations, Washington needs faster public diplomacy, stronger information coordination, and credible messaging before disinformation spreads.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen, Nico Vacca, and Jose M. Macias III — May 5, 2026

The Geometry of Coercion: Tracking the PRC’s Maritime and Air Pressure on Taiwan

China’s rising maritime and air incursions around Taiwan reveal a sustained coercion campaign designed to normalize pressure below the threshold of war, raising urgent questions about how the United States and its allies can shift from reactive responses to persistent deterrence.

Report by Jose M. Macias III and Benjamin Jensen — May 5, 2026

Audio Briefs

How to Lose an Information War in 10 Days

An audio version of “⁠How to Lose an Information War in 10 Days⁠,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen, Nico Vacca, and Jose M. Macias III. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen, Nico Vacca, and Jose M. Macias III — May 5, 2026

Audio Briefs

What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

After a globe-spanning chase, the United States seized a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Iran and Venezuela. What does the Bella-1 reveal about shadow fleets, AIS manipulation, and how maritime interdiction is reshaping sanctions enforcement?

Critical Questions by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

Audio Briefs

What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets

An audio version of "⁠What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets⁠," a new Critical Questions by CSIS's Jose M. Macias III. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Jose M. Macias III — January 8, 2026

Audio Briefs