Spain is a parliamentary monarchy with a bicameral parliament, called the Cortes Generales, consisting of the Congress of Deputies (350 seats, the lower house) and the Senate (265 seats, the upper house), and organized territorially in 17 autonomous communities and 2 autonomous cities. The Congress represents all Spanish citizens and debates and drafts laws. The Senate, on the other hand, cannot propose laws, but reviews and proposes changes to bills submitted to it by Congress. In practice, the Congress of Deputies has more power than the Senate.
All 350 seats in the Congress are in play and 208 in the Senate, with the remaining 57 Senate seats appointed by the Legislative Assemblies of Spain’s 17 autonomous communities.
Votes are counted by electoral constituencies. In Spain there are 52 constituencies for the Congress of Deputies, which correspond to the 50 Spanish provinces plus the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla in Northern Africa. After the counting of the votes, the seats are distributed through the D'Hondt Law, which determines how votes are distributed among parties and candidates. Once the seats in Congress and the Senate have been assigned, it is the members of Congress who elect the prime minister (officially called the President of the Government). To do so, the King proposes a candidate after a round of consultation with the parties, usually the ones representing the greatest number of seats. The candidate must obtain the confidence of the majority of the chamber (176 votes) to be appointed by the King. The prime minister-elect then designates the Cabinet.
Prime minister Pedro Sánchez (center-left PSOE) is the incumbent and leads a progressive coalition government formed with Unidas Podemos (a far-left alliance of parties), with the support of several Catalan, Basque and other regional parties. This is Sánchez’s second government and the first national coalition government in modern Spanish democratic history.
PM Sánchez announced a snap general election after his party performed poorly and lost several regions to the rightwing opposition in regional and municipal elections held on May 28. Sánchez said the regional election results transcended local considerations and called for a democratic response in the form of an early general election, originally scheduled for the end of the year, to clarify what the Spanish people want. The move is a significant political gamble for Sánchez and his government.
Contenders
People’s Party (PP): center-right, though increasingly under pressure to compete with a far-right party (Vox) due to the political polarization; free market economy; socially conservative and nationalistic; supports a strong centralized state to prevent independence movements (in Catalonia and the Basque Country in particular); immigration policy based on improving agreements with third countries to expedite the return or expulsion of migrants; pro-EU; pro-NATO.
Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE): center-left; social democratic, socially progressive; seeks improved relations between autonomous regions and the central government; advocates managed immigration in a more ordered framework and improving integration; pro-green transition; pro-EU; pro-NATO.
Vox: far-right nationalistic party founded by former PP members; supports a reduced role for the state in the economy; socially conservative; strongly opposed to regional autonomy and seeks to end decentralization of regional competencies (e.g. police, justice, education); anti-immigrant discourse, particularly with regards to Muslim countries, pro quotas and stringent rules of return for irregular migrants; Islamophobic; anti-LGBTQ+ rights; rejects globalization and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals; doubtful about climate change; Eurosceptic but no desire to leave the EU; pro-NATO and critical of the anti-NATO positions of the extreme left; calls for the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla to be included under the NATO umbrella
Sumar: far-left electoral platform created in 2023 consisting of parties to the left of PSOE, including Podemos, Izquierda Unida, and small regional parties; socially progressive; supportive of climate action; pro-reduced working week; pro-expanded protection of immigrants and their relatives; advocates for systemic and structural reform of the immigration system; pro-EU; does not mention NATO in its electoral program, but some of its members question increases in military spending to meet NATO commitments; prefers to negotiate peace in Ukraine rather than send military aid.
Impact on U.S. Interests
Spanish defense spending. Regardless of the electoral outcome, any future government will likely move in the direction of the Sánchez government’s pledge to spend 2% of GDP on defense by 2029, but will also stress that this is not the only parameter indicative of Spain's effort. This effort will aim to participate in most NATO and EU operations, depending on the capabilities required. Furthermore, two additional U.S. destroyers are scheduled to arrive at the Rota naval base in 2023-2024 as part of NATO's anti-missile shield. The agreement was signed by the Sánchez government and has the support of the PP, signaling that it would likely withstand a change in government.
Presidency of the Council of the EU. Spain holds the six-month presidency of the Council from 1 July to 31 December 2023. Spain’s main objective will be to strengthen the EU’s unity and cohesion, deepen and widen its integration, while continuing to support Ukraine. In this regard, strengthening the EU’s open strategic autonomy, a concept that has been described as “cooperating multilaterally wherever we can, acting autonomously wherever we must," will also be high on the agenda. This effort aims to reduce the EU’s dependency on third countries in key areas while enhancing its relations with strategic partners, particularly Latin America. These priorities will not change with a potential change of government. Nevertheless, the political dimension of the Presidency, and Spain's ability to seize it to strengthen its role at the center of the EU, is contingent on the elections and the timely formation of a new government.
Key Issues to Watch
Fiscal austerity vs. public spending. As in many countries, the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine caused an increase in Spain’s debt. While the Spanish economy has recovered partially since the pandemic, Spain’s public debt amounts to 113% of GDP and its budget deficit was 4.8% of GDP in 2022. To reduce public debt, the Popular Party has pledged to boost tax revenues, attract more foreign investments, and increase the employment rate. Sánchez has highlighted his success in attracting foreign investments and reducing unemployment so far under his leadership- although structural unemployment rates remain high, especially among younger workers- as well as increasing the share of renewable energies to close to 50% of Spain's total electricity generation. Among the objectives of the two major parties is the fight against climate change, including a commitment to develop more renewable capacity and comply with international and European agreements.
Increasing polarization. Polls indicate the People’s Party (PP) is comfortably in the lead but is not likely to win an absolute majority of seats (176). Should the PP decide to form a coalition government with Vox, it would be the first time Spain would have a far-right party in government since the country’s return to democracy in the 1970s. This would also make Spain part of a broader trend in Europe where right-wing parties are increasingly included in government coalitions and accepted in the mainstream policy discourse. However, while Vox is surging, the center-right party Ciudadanos has collapsed and most of its votes are likely to go to the People’s Party. Gender based violence, a sexual consent law, LGBTQ+ rights, and a newly enacted law that allows for gender self-determination from the age of 16 are among the divisive social issues that have taken center stage in the election campaign.
Practical matters. The only debate between PM Sánchez and opposition leader Alberto Núnez Feijóo ahead of the election attracted the lowest viewing figures on record for an electoral debate in Spain. This is the first time Spain will hold a general election in the middle of summer, where many parts of Spain are facing unusually high temperatures, which may have a negative impact on voter turnout (nevertheless expected to reach 70%). Some 2.6 million voters will be voting by mail, an unprecedented figure which is causing problems for an understaffed postal service. Spain is also struggling to staff polling stations, which according to Spanish law must be overseen by three registered voters chosen through a lottery system. The people drawn are obliged to oversee the polling stations for the 12 hours that polls are open and can be fined or face up to a year in prison if they refuse to comply.
