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To generate new thinking on the risks of escalation with China, the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) made escalation management in the Indo-Pacific the focus of its 2025 Project Atom series. The contributors each authored 5,000–6,000-word strategies using a shared analytic framework that addresses four specific topics: stakes and strategic objectives, escalation risks, military tools for escalation management, and diplomatic tools for escalation management. The strategies demonstrate agreement on key issues, including U.S. and Chinese objectives and the importance of deterrence. They also highlight important areas of disagreement, including the utility of nuclear weapons for deterrence and escalation management.
This report was made possible with support from the Northrop Grumman Corporation.
Report by Heather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan MacKenzie, Robert Soofer, Tom Karako, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Franklin Miller, Leonor Tomero, and Jon Wolfsthal — September 29, 2023
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