The Latest on Southeast Asia: “Super-charged” El Niño Impacting Southeast Asia

Over the last two months, a “super-charged” El Niño weather pattern has intensified peatland fires in Indonesia, sending hazardous air pollution across the region. Two typhoons hovering east of Taiwan and south of Hong Kong are worsening the situation, pulling the fire emissions from Indonesia as well as monsoon rains toward the Philippines, leading to intensified haze, flooding, and landslides.  

El Niño-intensified droughts have heightened fire risk in Indonesia, spiking the country’s fire hotspots to nearly 10,000 in August. The increased fire risk has disrupted palm oil harvesting, with companies instead tasking farmers to join firefighting efforts. Smoke from the fires has severely worsened air quality in both Indonesia and neighboring Malaysia. Around 13,500 people on Borneo and Sumatra were treated for respiratory infections in July and August. Malaysia's Sarawak state is facing its worst air quality levels since 2019, with the air pollution index (API) nearing the threshold for local government closures.  

On September 1, transboundary haze from Indonesia reached the Philippines for the first time since 2015. The latter's API reached “acutely unhealthy” levels, prompting Quezon City in Metro Manila to suspend schools. The Philippines has simultaneously faced heavy monsoon rains and flooding from a string of tropical cyclones over the last month, which have killed more than 30 people. The Office of Civil Defense confirmed that more than 2,900 houses have been damaged and estimated roughly $98 million in infrastructure damage.  

The intensified El Niño phenomenon is anticipated to be “the strongest in living memory,” causing drought across Southeast Asia. Transboundary haze in the region is anticipated to peak in August and September while El Niño is projected to peak in strength in the final two months of 2026. The rising costs of fertilizer and fuel from the Iran war may also exacerbate “slash and burn” agricultural techniques, further increasing fire risk and transboundary haze throughout the region. 

Lauren Mai is a Program Manager and Research Associate for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. 

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