Ukraine: Four Scenarios
The crisis in international dialogue with Russia is particularly acute when it comes to Ukraine, the main locus of the breakdown’s origins. Except for the relatively narrow focus on the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, strategic dialogue about the crisis among Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans, and Russians is virtually nonexistent. This breakdown has the potential to be highly destabilizing as mistrust grows and misunderstandings multiply, creating the possibility for the conflict to escalate.
To help ameliorate this challenge on the Track II level, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung's Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe brought together a select, high-level group of Russians, Europeans, Americans, and Ukrainians – a total of eight participants – to develop four long-term scenarios for Ukraine. The idea was to agree on a range of plausible outcomes of the crisis for Ukraine (in a ten-year time frame) as an analytical, rather than normative exercise.
Several of the authors will present the publication that resulted. Julia Gurganus, Visiting Scholar with the Russia and Eurasia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, will provide comments. Greg Brown, Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University, will speak on the report's methodology. Olga Oliker, director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program, will moderate.
This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.