Analysis of the First Trump-Lee Summit

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung achieved his top goal: a productive and cordial meeting with President Trump. He did so and more, hitting all the right notes. From his speech at CSIS to his interactions with Trump, Lee consistently emphasized the importance of the alliance, underscored the need for continued cooperation with the United States against China, and highlighted the shared goal of denuclearizing North Korea. His use of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) slogan, “We go together,” resonated with Washington’s South Korea watchers, who were looking for signs that Lee would seek to weaken the alliance in favor of “balancing” the relationship with a more conciliatory China policy.

Some liberal South Korean (ROK) presidents have sought a new path with the United States—because of such attempts, both Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in had challenging starts to their relationship with Presidents Bush and Trump as they channeled the desire of some of their core liberal supporters to stand up to “big brother” and shed any sense of dependency on the United States. Despite this, by the end of their respective terms, on alliance issues, China policy, economic cooperation, cultural and educational exchange, the two presidents had the U.S. relationship on stable ground and at the nexus of South Korea’s foreign policy and, arguably, the U.S.-ROK relationship at the center point of their presidencies.

While many critics expected Lee to stumble out of the gate on the world stage after a career laser-focused on domestic ROK policy and politics, he clearly learned two important lessons before arriving in Washington and did not miss a step. First, the relationship with the U.S. president and the United States is pivotal; therefore, he should seek to get off on the right foot with Trump and with the U.S. government. Second, he realized that, however appealing standing up to the United States might be to some in the Democratic Party of Korea, South Korea ultimately wants its president to get it right with the United States. If, while maintaining a good relationship with the United States, there are moves toward “sovereignty” or “independence,” all the better, but first, the goal is not to harm South Korea’s only ally and most important economic partner.

Lee and the Art of the Deal

Lee shared he learned from The Art of the Deal that though Trump might use threats during negotiations, ultimately, he would not “cause a wound” or damage relationships that matter. He got this right as Trump seemed ready to send Lee down the Zelensky/Ramaphosa route with his early August 25 (just hours before the Oval Office meeting) salvo via Truth Social about the “purge and revolution” going on in South Korea, but ultimately smoothed things over publicly and privately to focus on the alliance, trade, investment, shipbuilding, security, and North Korea.

Lee struck the only note he could—South Korea has one ally, one relationship that represents the future, and that is the relationship with the United States. Therefore, the South Korean people will judge Lee, like they have every South Korean president before him, by his ability to manage the relationship with the United States. Lee did what he needed to do—artfully flatter Trump, not fall into the trap of contradicting Trump, and pivot from controversial (for example on comfort women) to less thorny issues (such as Japan-ROK ties are important or golf in North Korea) and avoided the bizarre (let’s fly to Beijing together) while focusing on reassuring topics (South Korea is ready to work with the United States to manage and compete with China).

North Korea: Opportunities to Engage?

On North Korea policy, there has occasionally been daylight between the United States and South Korea. In many instances, at the heart of the matter is a desire by both the United States and South Korea to engage in bilateral talks with the North, sharing more or less what they are attempting. Even when the Six-Party Talks were the main negotiating vehicle (2003–2009), keeping all parties aligned and keeping track of the various bilateral initiatives featured as main diplomatic tasks. 

The Trump-Lee summit featured extensive discussions on North Korea, with both leaders signaling their eagerness to reengage with Pyongyang. Lee praised Trump’s past diplomatic overtures, while Trump himself expressed his willingness to meet with Kim Jong-un again, describing their relationship as “very good.” Lee’s framing of himself as a “pacemaker” to Trump’s “peacemaker” role could position South Korea as a partner in any future talks. However, the path to a breakthrough remains uncertain, as Kim Jong-un has not yet shown interest in dialogue, and his comprehensive strategic partnership with Moscow likely limits his ability to engage.

Lee Commits to Alliance

On the security front, Lee affirmed South Korea’s commitment to the alliance by announcing a planned increase in the defense budget. This move, which was well-received by the United States, aims to modernize the South Korean military and bolster its capabilities. While some questions remain about the details of defense cost-sharing and how to interpret “strategic flexibility,” along with Trump’s public comments that the United States could take ownership of military base land, the overall tone of the summit on security matters was positive and forward-looking.

Economic Cooperation: Investment and Shipbuilding

In the wake of the July 30 trade agreement and commitment by South Korea to invest $350 billion and purchase up to $150 billion in fossil fuels, focus on economic and industrial collaboration featured prominently at the summit. While the investment commitments were substantial, shipbuilding emerged as the strategic centerpiece for Lee’s visit. Discussions at the industry roundtable, attended by executives from major South Korean and U.S. companies, suggested a deal is in the works that could see greater South Korean participation in the U.S. shipbuilding sector. HD Hyundai, Cerberus Capital, and the Korea Development Bank agreed to form an investment strategy to attract and focus tens of billions into revamping the U.S. shipbuilding industry. This builds upon the $150 billion South Korean “Make America Shipbuilding Great Again” proposal. The initiative, which could potentially involve a modification or modernization of the Jones Act, aligns with President Trump's “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” agenda. To further highlight this partnership and the potential for such a partnership, Lee visited the Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia on August 26, which Hanwha Ocean purchased for $100 million and reportedly will invest an additional $70 million to expand the facility.

Lee’s visit to Washington exceeded all expectations and was a success. The next opportunity to build on this success is a possible Trump visit to South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit at the end of October. If Trump does travel to Gyeongju, and possibly Seoul as well, it could help to catalyze real progress on Korea’s investment commitments, to refine the trade agreement, and to define what modernizing the alliance will mean for the two countries. The possibility of North Korea engagement could boost chances for Trump to invest further in the relationship with Lee and the relationship with South Korea.

Mr. Henry Haggard, a former minister counselor for political affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, has served three times in Seoul. He is also a senior advisor at WestExec Advisors, a non-resident fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, a senior associate at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy and a partner at Albion East.