Disruptions to Trade in the Taiwan Strait Would Severely Impact China's Economy

Analysis by Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, David Peng, Bonny Lin, and Jasper Verschuur

Published June 17, 2025

A major Taiwan contingency, such as quarantine, blockade, or invasion, could significantly disrupt the flow of trade through the Taiwan Strait—one of the world’s busiest waterways.

Research from CSIS estimates that approximately $2.45 trillion worth of goods—over one-fifth of global maritime trade—transited the Taiwan Strait in 2022.
China’s economy could be severely impacted by any disruptions in the Taiwan Strait. A staggering $1.4 trillion worth of Chinese imports and exports passed through the strait in 2022. China is reliant on the strait for nearly one-third of its imports, particularly oil, coal, natural gas, and manufacturing inputs like ores and metals.
The Taiwan Strait is not simply vital for China’s international trade. It also facilitates the flow of goods within China. Over half of all voyages through the strait are bound from one Chinese port to another. Disruptions could therefore significantly hamper supply chains within China.

CSIS Charts is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).