Does Ukraine Need a New Black Sea Grain Initiative?

Nascent agreements over safety of navigation on the Black Sea indicate Russia’s desire to restart the Black Sea Grain Initiative, but Ukraine has already secured—and increased—its agricultural exports without Russia’s cooperation.

1. Statements from Russian officials indicate their desire to restart the Black Sea Grain Initiative—an expired deal meant to enable the safe export of agricultural products from Black Sea ports—even though Ukraine has already secured its exports absent Russia’s cooperation. 

2. Shortly after the White House released statements regarding the agreements, Russia stated that it would comply with the limited ceasefire agreement only if additional demands were met, including a rollback of sanctions and restrictions that Russia claims affect its agricultural trade. 

3. Russia actually increased its agricultural exports by 7 percent from 2023 to 2024, and Black Sea agricultural trade has largely normalized since the early stages of the war. Unless Russia agrees to security guarantees for Ukraine’s ports, meeting Russian demands for a loosened sanctions regime would primarily serve to strengthen Russian agricultural sector, even as it continues to deliberately undermine Ukraine’s food production and export capacity. 

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