Prime Minister Ishiba’s Visit to Washington

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Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will meet with President Trump at the White House on February 7 to reaffirm the strength of the U.S.-Japan relationship and Japan’s status as a reliable ally. The two leaders are expected to issue a joint statement addressing a range of security and economic issues animating bilateral relations. And the meeting could prove impactful strategically in signaling to potential adversaries that alliances will remain central to U.S. strategy in Asia.

Q1: Why the rush to engage President Trump?

A1: It is critical for any Japanese leader to establish close ties with the United States as the security alliance between the two countries is the cornerstone of Japan’s national security. This is especially true for Ishiba, the leader of a minority government with a weak approval rating currently enveloped in legislative debates over government spending and other issues. Ishiba was granted a brief reprieve from parliamentary deliberations to visit Washington, a critical opportunity to establish his diplomatic bona fides and hope that it translates into more solid political support at home. But the visit is about much more than his politics. Ishiba will also want a joint statement reaffirming strategic alignment on regional security challenges and a shared commitment to strengthen the U.S.-Japan security alliance as a foundation for stability and prosperity in Asia. Ishiba can establish a rapport with Trump by delivering a clear and concise message about Japan’s reliability as an ally: one that is investing more in its own defense capabilities to expand its role as a security actor, and in the United States to further its reputation as an economic partner.

Q2: What is on the agenda?

A2: Japan is in the middle of an ambitious defense build-up to acquire advanced capabilities and enhance security cooperation with the United States. The objective is to boost defense outlays to approximately 2 percent of GDP, perhaps short of Trump’s expectations but on the rise as evidenced by a record-high $59 billion request for 2025. Japan’s new defense strategy is not simply a response to demands for burden sharing; it reflects the need for Japan to strengthen deterrence in a rapidly deteriorating security environment. Ishiba will want to discuss the importance of U.S.-Japan defense cooperation to deter China. (His defense minister, Nakatani Gen, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth agreed to expand bilateral presence in Japan’s Nansei, or southwest, islands during a phone call last week.) Ishiba could also address the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs and encourage bilateral coordination on North Korea’s strategy to ensure that Japan’s equities including the return of abductees are reflected. Ishiba might also reflect on the regional strategy of one of his predecessors, Abe Shinzo, who encouraged Trump during his first term to embrace networking with other partners in the region under the rubric of the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” construct. Ishiba need not get down into the weeds on alliance cooperation; the importance of this first meeting is to reiterate common strategic objectives and establish momentum for bilateral ties.

Q3: What about economic issues?

A3: Trump may criticize Japan’s trade surplus with the United States, but Ishiba is expected to assuage such concerns with plans for new investments in the U.S. economy, perhaps an initiative to import U.S. liquified natural gas. He might also reference Japan’s defense equipment imports from the United States in its defense build-up plan and the latest defense budget request. Ishiba could also promote joint cooperation on generative AI, building on a joint venture recently announced by Trump that includes Japan’s SoftBank. Ishiba will want to stress Japan’s long history of foreign direct investment in the United States and sustained commitment to supporting the U.S. economy. Ishiba could reference Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. steel as consistent with that history, but focusing on that case in detail could put U.S. trade politics front and center and crowd out his narrative on economic cooperation. Ishiba faces a similar conundrum with U.S. tariff policy, where detailed explanations of the negative impacts on Japanese industry, such as auto manufacturers, could lead to a contentious dialogue on trade. The economic dialogue could be tricky for Ishiba, but a high-level emphasis on Japan’s contributions to U.S. economic growth could position him to strengthen the economic pillar of the relationship during Trump’s second term.

Q4: Are there any strategic implications?

A4: Ishiba will be the second foreign leader to meet with Trump at the White House after Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, and that alone says something about Japan’s strategic weight. Japan’s foreign policy has always been “America First,” and if Ishiba can deliver that message eloquently he will establish a foundation for strong alliance ties going forward. And that, in turn, would send a powerful signal to other regional allies and partners that “America First” also means “allies first,” before any potential dealmaking with China, Russia, or North Korea. Will Ishiba succeed? The media will be looking for signs of personal chemistry, and that is important in diplomacy. But the message Ishiba brings is profound, and what might at first appear to be a hastily arranged bilateral meeting could potentially serve as a starting point for shaping the regional balance of power in favor of the U.S. alliance network in Asia during Trump 2.0.

Nicholas Szechenyi is vice president of the geopolitics and foreign policy department and senior fellow with the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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Nicholas Szechenyi
Vice President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Senior Fellow, Japan Chair