Rethinking Export Controls as a Tool in Modern Technology Competition

Photo: Cheng Xin/Getty Images

Photo: Cheng Xin/Getty Images

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Export controls have become a central tool in U.S. technology competition with China, particularly in semiconductors and advanced AI. This report examines the lessons of Cold War–era controls and argues that today’s environment is fundamentally different: China is deeply integrated into global supply chains, possesses substantial innovation capabilities, and has responded to restrictions through circumvention, domestic substitution, and investment in technological self-sufficiency.

The report finds that export controls can delay access to critical technologies, but broad or frequently changing restrictions can also reduce revenues for U.S. firms, encourage companies to design around U.S. technology, and complicate coordination with allies. It argues that carefully targeted controls should form one part of a broader U.S. technology strategy centered on sustained investment in research, talent, advanced manufacturing, commercialization, and collaboration with allies.

This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.

Thomas Howell

Consultant, Renewing American Innovation and International Trade Attorney
Charles Wessner

Charles Wessner

Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Renewing American Innovation

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