Risks of Racing: Russian and Chinese Perceptions of Strategic Competition in the Euro-Atlantic Region

Heather Williams; Joseph Rodgers; Nicholas Adamopoulos; Lachlan MacKenzie; Elena Tiedens

Report by Heather Williams, Joseph Rodgers, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan MacKenzie, and Elena Tiedens

Published August 6, 2026

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As the United States and its allies invest more in their nuclear forces to deter Russia and China, some have warned of an impending arms race. The likelihood of an arms race, however, depends on perceptions in Moscow and Beijing. The CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) drew from historical sources and expert workshops to evaluate how Russia and China would view and respond to four U.S. and UK buildup scenarios.

The study found that Russia and China are unlikely to abandon their nuclear modernization and expansion programs due to domestic factors and long-standing distrust of the United States. Both countries, though, may view investments in certain capabilities as more escalatory than others. Accordingly, the United States and its allies should tailor deterrence and risk reduction efforts to Russian and Chinese threat perceptions.

This report is made possible by generous support from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

This report is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).