On March 11, shortly after arriving at Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport, Philippine police took former President Rodrigo Duterte into custody. The prosecutor general of the International Criminal Court (ICC) served Duterte an arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity, citing ongoing investigations into the war on drugs launched during his presidency.
The arrest comes over two years after the ICC resumed its investigation into crimes Duterte is alleged to have committed between November 2011 and March 2019, both as president and before then as mayor of Davao City. The Philippine government conservatively estimates at least 6,252 people were killed during Duterte’s war on drugs, a signature component of his domestic policy. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights calculated that the death toll reached nearly 9,000 and some Philippine human rights groups suggest the real number is triple that. Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC when it launched its investigations, but the Supreme Court of the Philippines has ruled that the ICC maintains jurisdiction over crimes committed while it was still a member. The current government of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also maintained that as a member of Interpol, the Philippines must comply with any Interpol red notice arrest request.
Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest further complicates the political fate of his family, which is currently struggling across all fronts. Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, is under intense scrutiny after her impeachment in the Philippine House of Representatives stemming from alleged misappropriation of confidential funds and death threats she made against the president and his family. She faces a Senate trial in July where a conviction would bar her from a widely expected presidential run in 2028. Both of Sara’s brothers, Paolo and Sebastian, aim to secure their family’s political influence, with Paolo seeking reelection in the House and Sebastian running as a vice mayoral candidate in Davao City. Neither are seen to be as charismatic or compelling as their father and sister.
Political Favors Gone Awry
Despite international criticism of Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war and the legal troubles hanging over Sara, President Marcos is being careful not to alienate Duterte supporters more than necessary. The Marcos family owes part of its political comeback to President Duterte’s intervention and popularity. As one of his first acts as president, Duterte ordered the burial of former President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. at the Libingan ng Mga Bayani (Heroes’ Cemetery). This legitimized the former dictator’s aggrandized war record and helped rehabilitate the family name.
Though Duterte did not endorse Marcos Jr. in the 2022 elections, his PDP-Laban party did. As Duterte could not run again, his daughter Sara emerged as his natural heir and agreed to run as Marcos’s vice president in what they dubbed a “UniTeam.” With solid Marcos support in the north of the Philippines and Duterte support in the south, the tandem won in an electoral landslide. But once in office, the UniTeam’s cracks became evident—Marcos Jr. kept his cards close and appointed key, trusted advisors to top offices while keeping Sara out.
Marcos initially balked at ICC activity in the Philippines, announcing in January 2024 that his government would not cooperate with the investigation into Duterte. But as his relationship with Vice President Sara Duterte worsened, so did Marcos’s resistance to the ICC. In November 2024, his government announced that it would be obligated to comply should the ICC seek the elder Duterte’s arrest.
Bad News in the Polls
Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest complicates the political atmosphere heading into midterm elections in May. Recent polling suggests that candidates aligned with the Marcos administration hold an edge over those supportive of the Duterte family. An OCTA Research survey in February showed that 36 percent of survey participants favor the Marcoses compared to 18 percent favoring the Dutertes. A Social Weather Stations survey that month found that senatorial candidates echoing the Marcos administration’s assertive stance on the South China Sea were preferred by 78 percent of respondents. But Duterte’s arrest could energize his voter base. Regardless, both Marcos and Sara Duterte have seen precipitous performance rating drops, with Marcos sinking from 45 percent in September 2024 to 30 percent “satisfactory performance” in February 2025 and Sara dropping from 47 percent to 41 percent during the same time period.
Potential Political Turmoil
The Marcoses, though nearing political victory over their once-allies, still rely on the support of an electorate strongly in support of the Duterte family. Duterte-aligned protests have a remarkable ability to mobilize quickly in support of the family. Most recently, in December 2024, Duterte supporters gathered to declare their support for Sara Duterte at the EDSA Shrine, hearkening back to the 1986 protests on the site that ousted Marcos’s father. Now former President Duterte is en route to The Hague as allies come to his defense. Vice President Duterte has characterized his arrest as an “affront” to Philippine sovereignty. Veronica “Kitty” Duterte, his youngest daughter, has claimed that Philippine authorities are preventing him from seeking appropriate medical intervention and were “illegally detaining” him at Villamor Air Base. Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, one of Duterte’s key allies, appeared on Facebook live alongside Duterte supporters gathered in front of the airbase and called for the country to pray for the former president.
The Marcos and Duterte families compete for a similar voter base nationally, though both maintain a huge edge in their geographic bailiwicks. Marcos won a significant number of working class Filipinos, many of whom are self-employed, because they believed his policies aligned with those of Rodrigo Duterte, the self-styled anti-elite champion of the working class. These voters make up the bulk of the Philippine electorate and they ranked the Duterte administration “excellent” in 2020. In the mold of her father, Sara Duterte still holds significant sway over much of the electorate. She remains one of the most popular candidates ahead of the 2028 presidential elections and her father’s arrest may solidify her base and bolster her political fortunes. A surge in popular support could boost her preferred slate of senatorial candidates in the midterms or make more independent senators think twice about convicting her in July. As a result, it is unclear whether Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest marks the end of his family’s time at the top of Philippine politics or the start of their resurgence.
Japhet Quitzon is an associate fellow with the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
