Strategic Trends 2025

Nicholas Adamopoulos; Diya Ashtakala; Doreen Horschig; Lachlan MacKenzie; Catherine Murphy; Joseph Rodgers; Bailey Schiff; Pranay Vaddi; Heather Williams; Reja Younis

Strategic Trends 2025

An Assessment by the Project on Nuclear Issues

Report by Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams, and Reja Younis

Published November 18, 2025

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Strategic Trends 2025 examines how the global nuclear landscape has shifted in ways that challenge the United States and its allies and partners. After decades of declining strategic competition, Washington now faces multiple nuclear-armed adversaries whose capabilities and ambitions are rapidly evolving. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s nuclear expansion, and North Korea’s growing arsenal have intensified the complexity of deterrence. Meanwhile, emerging technologies may increasingly blur the line between nuclear and conventional conflict, creating faster escalation dynamics and raising the risk of miscalculation.

The report highlights three critical trends shaping 2025 and looking into 2026: adversarial cooperation, the erosion of nuclear institutions and norms, and delays in U.S. nuclear modernization. Policymakers must navigate a fractured strategic order while reassuring allies of U.S. extended deterrence. Arms control mechanisms, once a stabilizing force, no longer provide predictability, and proliferation pressures grow in regions such as South Asia and the Middle East. By analyzing regional developments, nuclear doctrines, and emerging strategic technologies, this volume offers a comprehensive guide for understanding the current nuclear threat environment and preparing for the challenges ahead.

This report is made possible by general support to PONI. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.