Underexplored and Undervalued: Addressing Africa’s Mineral Exploration Gap

This paper analyzed mineral exploration data across 14 mineral-rich African countries to distill five evidence-based insights, which serve as the foundation for the subsequent policy recommendations.

1. Exploration efforts in Africa have yielded some of the world’s best resource deposits.

Namibia ranks as the world’s third-largest uranium producer—a position it achieved through substantial exploration investment. Between 2008 and 2012, the country averaged $66.5 million annually in uranium exploration alone. Today, Namibia hosts three active uranium mines—Rössing, Husab, and Langer Heinrich—all of which have significant Chinese ownership through entities such as the China National Uranium Corporation, China General Nuclear Power Group, and the China Africa Development Fund. Husab, the world’s second largest producing uranium mine, was discovered during the uranium exploration boom in 2008, began development in 2013, and is now 90 percent owned by Taurus Mineral Limited, a Hong Kong–based subsidiary of China Guandong Nuclear Power Corp (Figure 2). Rössing, originally discovered in 1928, saw a resurgence in exploration in the 2000s that led to a major expansion of its open pit operations. Uranium from both Rössing and Husab is shipped to China for enrichment.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) also stands out as a country where sustained exploration over the past two decades has led to significant mineral discoveries. Exploration activity accelerated shortly after the end of the civil war in 2003. Between 2005 and 2012, exploration spending surged by 582.8 percent—from $57 million to a peak of $389.2 million. Copper has consistently drawn the largest share of this investment, accounting for between 35 and 67 percent of total exploration spending from 2004 to 2024. These investments have paid off: the Kamoa-Kakula Complex in the DRC, which includes the Kamoa deposit (discovered in 2008) and the Kakula deposit (found in 2016), boasts the world’s highest copper ore grade at 2.52 percent. It’s likely that there will be new high-grade discoveries, given that the DRC remains Africa’s top destination for mineral exploration.

Exploration and project development already conducted have produced strong results for lithium in a short timeframe: Africa’s share of global lithium production is projected to rise fivefold from 2 percent in 2022 to 13 percent by 2027.

2. Conflict has undermined exploration efforts.

Even with strong geological fundamentals, conflict has driven out investment. Mozambique is a resource-rich country, with the third-largest graphite reserves in the world. However, Mozambique’s mineral exploration activity has sharply declined amid escalating violence in Cabo Delgado, the country’s northernmost province. The insurgency, led by Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a, began in October 2017 and remains one of Southern Africa’s most severe security challenges. In December 2024, Australian company Syrah Resources declared force majeure at its Balama graphite mine due to instability in the region, resulting in a default on its $150 million loan from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. The announcement caused Syrah’s share price to fall by 28 percent. Amidst the conflict, exploration spending, which totaled $25.5 million in 2014, fell to just $1.4 million in 2024 as a direct consequence of the conflict.

Similarly, political instability and coups in the Sahel region have deterred exploration investment. In Niger—where coups have been a recurring feature since independence—exploration spending dropped by 89.8 percent, from $66.4 million in 2012 (with uranium accounting for 87.8 percent of that total) to just $6.8 million in 2024. Mali experienced a sharp downturn more recently, with investment decreasing by half over the last two years, from $153.9 million in 2022 to $72 million in 2024. Similarly, Burkina Faso—following a January 2022 coup—witnessed a parallel 68.7 percent drop in exploration, from $121 million in 2021 to $37.9 million in 2024. Due to the complex political and social landscapes in many African countries, political risk insurance will be essential to catalyze investment in mineral exploration.

3. Resource nationalism has historically discouraged new exploration activity—but a policy reversal has been shown to help reinvigorate exploration investment.

Tanzania has successfully turned around a downward exploration spiral that resulted from poor policies. In 2011, Tanzania attracted $212.7 million in exploration investment—8.2 percent of Africa’s total. However, when former Tanzanian President John Magufuli took office, he declared economic warfare on foreign mining companies and introduced resource nationalist policies, including export bans, contract renegotiations, and uncompetitive fiscal regulations. This led to a sharp decline in exploration investment—from $212.7 million in 2012 to an average of $55.6 million annually during his presidency (2016–2021). The election of President Samia Hassan marked a policy shift—she set out to make the mining sector a pillar of growth. Under her policies, exploration investment more than doubled from $47.2 million in the last year of Magufuli’s presidency in 2021 to $103.4 million in 2022, her first full year in office. The sector has also diversified: While gold previously dominated exploration, since 2023, most investment has shifted toward nickel and copper.

Zambia offers another turnaround story. Between 2010 and 2014, the country averaged $170.2 million annually in exploration spending, with the vast majority of investment concentrated in copper. However, the election of President Edgar Lungu in 2015 marked a shift toward resource nationalism, characterized by double taxation, withheld tax refunds, and repeated royalty hikes—including the country’s tenth royalty increase in 16 years in 2018. These measures led to a sharp decline in exploration, which fell to an average of just $32.7 million per year between 2016 and 2021—an 80.8 percent drop from the preceding four years. The election of President Hakainde Hichilema in 2021 signaled a policy reversal. He dismantled many of the restrictive measures imposed by his predecessor, and exploration investment began to rebound—rising 89 percent year-on-year in 2022, from $42.1 million to $79.6 million.

4. Growing demand for rare earth elements is attracting investment to previously underexplored regions.

Rising interest in rare earth elements is driving a surge in exploration activity across several African countries that have had insignificant mining sectors historically. Though Uganda and Malawi have relatively small mining sectors, rare earths have brought both into sharper focus for investors. In Uganda, exploration spending climbed nearly tenfold—from $1.1 million in 2017 to $9.5 million in 2024—with 81 percent directed toward rare earths. Malawi saw a similar trend, with exploration rising from $2.2 million to $19.4 million over the same period, and over half (51.5 percent) focused on rare earths. In 2024, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation also backed a feasibility study for rare earths processing in Angola, signaling broader strategic interest in African rare earths.

5. Countries that have diversified their exploration targets across multiple minerals have been better shielded from market fluctuations.

Across the continent, gold exploration has declined significantly over the last 15 years—and many of these economies did not diversify their exploration, impeding future growth of the mining industry. Between 2012 and 2024, gold exploration fell by 73.7 percent in Ghana, 89.7 percent in Burkina Faso, 58.9 percent in Mali, 74.8 percent in Tanzania, and 66.7 percent in South Africa—all Africa’s top gold exploration destinations.

In several countries, diamond exploration has seen a similar decline. In South Africa, for instance, diamond exploration averaged $126.2 million annually between 2006 and 2008. However, by 2022–2024, that figure had dropped sharply to an average of $8.3 million per year. This downturn has had a significant impact on South Africa’s broader exploration landscape, contributing to one of the steepest declines on the continent in absolute terms—from $403.6 million in total exploration investment in 2007 to just $121.3 million in 2024.

Botswana presents a strong example of successful diversification in mineral exploration. In 2006, diamonds received $76.5 million in exploration investment—or 67.5 percent of mineral exploration—while copper and nickel received $7.9 million (10.3 percent) and 10.9 million (13.8 percent). By 2024, diamond exploration had significantly dropped off, accounting for just $6.9 million in mineral exploration (amounting to 13.9 percent); in comparison, copper and nickel had increased to $23.5 million (42.3 percent) and $13.4 million (27 percent). While nickel prices remain depressed, copper prices have bullish forecasts, offering Botswana’s economy a layer of protection. Still, Africa received just 6.5 percent of the $3.2 billion spent on global copper exploration in 2024.

Recommendations to Increase Mineral Exploration in Africa

Speeding up Western-led exploration in Africa is crucial for three key reasons. First, it can identify new mineral assets that offer long-term, strategic supply. Second, it creates an opportunity to build supply chains that are independent of China. To safeguard these efforts, any U.S. exploration financing should include measures to keep ownership within allied nations. Third, such exploration can stimulate economic growth in African countries by attracting investment, expanding trade, and generating employment. For example, in South Africa, the Johannesburg-Pretoria metropolitan area emerged as the continent’s economic and financial center largely as a result of gold mining.

1. Utilize political risk insurance to support exploration projects, especially in high-risk regions. This tool provides several critical advantages. First, it offers protection against adverse government actions—such as expropriation, contract termination, license withdrawal, or sudden changes in fiscal terms—that can threaten project viability. Second, political risk insurance helps manage risks linked to conflict and instability, as seen in regions like Mozambique and the Sahel, by covering losses from war, terrorism, or political violence that could halt exploration activities. Third, it enhances a project’s bankability; by safeguarding investors against noncommercial risks, political risk insurance makes it easier to attract financing that might otherwise be withheld. Finally, it promotes long-term investment. Given the high-risk, long-duration nature of exploration, insurance provides the confidence companies need to operate through periods of uncertainty and continue developing resources sustainably.
2. Prioritize exploration projects for concessional financing. Financing provided at below-market rates is important for mineral exploration for several reasons. First, mineral exploration is inherently risky, with no guaranteed returns. Traditional lenders often avoid such early-stage investments. Concessional financing helps fill this gap by providing affordable capital to de-risk initial exploration. Second, exploration has a long-term horizon – it can take years before yielding viable discoveries. Concessional finance, with longer repayment periods and lower interest rates, aligns better with these extended timelines than commercial lending. Third, concessional financing can catalyze private investment. By absorbing more risk or offering first-loss capital, concessional financing can crowd in private investors who would otherwise stay away due to perceived political, geological, or financial risks. And finally, concessional financing can unlock exploration in nascent mineral markets. In many resource-rich but infrastructure-poor regions, concessional financing can jump-start exploration activity that would otherwise be too costly or unattractive under commercial terms.
3. Provide research and development subsidies to support the integration of AI in mineral exploration. AI significantly enhances the speed, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness of mineral exploration by streamlining traditional workflows and introducing entirely new capabilities. At a foundational level, AI accelerates tasks like geological data analysis. More advanced applications include integrating diverse datasets to build exploration models, optimizing drilling strategies through forward simulations, and estimating a deposit’s probabilistic return profile. Ultimately, AI has the potential to fundamentally transform how mineral resources are discovered, evaluated, and developed.
4. Strengthen stability in mineral governance frameworks. African governments should avoid abrupt shifts in mining laws, tax structures, licensing conditions, or export regulations that can deter investment. A consistent and predictable policy environment reduces perceived risk and enhances a country’s attractiveness to investors. When regulatory and fiscal conditions remain stable over time, companies are more likely to commit capital. Policy consistency also signals a government’s commitment to honoring contracts and upholding the rule of law—critical factors that influence investment decisions in new markets.

Gracelin Baskaran is director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.