The Latest on Southeast Asia: The 2nd Cambodia-Thailand Ceasefire

Cambodia and Thailand agreed to a new ceasefire on December 27 after weeks of deadly border clashes. The latest round of the conflict that began in July displaced more than 500,000 citizens on both sides of the border and killed at least 100 people. The two countries agreed to halt further troop movements and maintain direct communication between their ministers of defense and chiefs of armed forces. An observer team from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is slated to monitor the ceasefire. 

Unlike a previous ceasefire reached in July and reinforced during the ASEAN Summit in October, the United States does not seem to have played a leading role in pushing the two countries toward a deal. Instead, China is presenting itself as an important mediator but that may overstate Beijing’s importance in the negotiations. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met with his Thai and Cambodian counterparts, Sihasak Phuangketkeow and Prak Sokhonn, on December 29, two days after the ceasefire, and urged both to reach a permanent cessation of hostilities. In that meeting, Thailand and Cambodia also committed to stronger measures against transnational crime, especially scam centers.  

Unfortunately, the December 27 ceasefire may prove as fragile as the one reached in July. Skirmishes continue in disputed territory, with both sides casting blame at the other. Thailand has accused Cambodia of war crimes, alleging that it used human shields to protect its soldiers. Cambodia, meanwhile, claims that Thailand has annexed and militarized Chouk Chey village on the disputed border. Thailand delayed its return of 18 Cambodian prisoners of war after alleging Cambodian violations of the ceasefire but eventually released them on December 31. 

The disputed border is an artifact of agreements made between what was then the Kingdom of Siam and French colonial administration in Indochina. Over a century’s worth of disagreements over nationally and culturally significant landmarks in the border region, such as the Preah Vihear temple, have not amounted to constructive dialogue despite the implementation of numerous border commissions by successive Thai and Cambodian governments.

The fate of the ceasefire is complicated by domestic politics on both sides, where officials are simultaneously leveraging and being hemmed in by nationalist sentiment. This is especially problematic in Thailand, which will hold a general election on February 8. Incumbent prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party is pinning its hopes on cobbling together a coalition of moderate and conservative parties, while the progressive People’s Party hopes to secure a popular mandate. Neither can risk being seen as soft on the border dispute ahead of the polls.

Japhet Quitzon is an Associate Fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. 

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