The Latest on Southeast Asia: 48th Annual ASEAN Summit Outcomes

The Philippines hosted the first of this year’s two Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summits in Cebu on May 7-8. Among the key outcomes were a Leader’s Statement on Response to the Middle East Crisis and the first baby steps toward rapprochement with Myanmar following that country’s carefully orchestrated elections. On the sidelines of the summit, Thai prime minister Anutin Chanvirakul and Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet met for the first time since their countries’ border war flared back up in December, though they made no major progress toward a lasting peace. 

The war in Iran took center stage, overshadowing other issues like the South China Sea. The ASEAN leaders, most of whose countries are deeply dependent on energy imports from the Gulf, expressed their concern over the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reaffirmed the importance of maritime security and freedom of navigation. Philippine president Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., whose country is ASEAN chair this year, urged ratification of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security, which would create regional stockpiles of fuel to be shared during crises. That agreement was signed last year, replacing an earlier pact from 1986 that was never really implemented. Marcos also noted that the crisis adds urgency to the build out of the ASEAN Power Grid which would improve interconnectivity among the members with the ultimate goal of linking up the grids of all 11 countries. But these are long-term plans, not short-term crisis responses. And so, like previous chair Malaysia’s public calls for a united front against the Trump administration’s Liberation Day tariffs, joint ASEAN efforts in response to the energy crisis will take a backseat to bilateral deals.                                                                               

Aside from Iran, the civil war in Myanmar remained the thorniest issue for ASEAN leaders. The new pseudo-civilian government in Naypyidaw sent a delegation led by the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, U Hau Khan Sum. ASEAN continues to block participation by senior political leaders from Myanmar, including coup leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing, insisting that authorities must first implement the ASEAN Five Point Consensus reached after the 2021 coup. But after engineering elections earlier this year, Naypyidaw is working to improve its international standing. Most recently, former elected leader Aung Saan Suu Kyi, imprisoned since the 2021 coup, was reportedly moved to house arrest on May 1, though authorities are so far refusing foreign requests to verify her wellbeing. 

Thailand has been pushing particularly hard for ASEAN to accept the junta’s election results and normalize Naypyidaw’s participation in the grouping. On the other side of the issue, Timor-Leste has expressed interest in initiating legal proceedings against the Myanmar junta for its human rights violations. Others, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, are hesitant to fully bring the new government in from the cold, especially as the civil war rages on and most of the country remains contested or under resistance control. In an apparent compromise, ASEAN secretary general Kao Kim Hourn announced during the summit that virtual talks between ASEAN foreign ministers and their Myanmar counterparts are expected soon. 

Lastly, President Marcos facilitated a meeting between Prime Ministers Anutin Chanvirakul and Hun Manet on the sidelines of the summit for the first time since the latest round of fighting along the border. The conflict has been frozen for the last six months by a shaky ceasefire leaving Thai troops in control of sections of Cambodian territory. The three leaders underscored the importance of peace, and Thailand and Cambodia agreed to limited confidence building measures, but made no breakthroughs. In the meantime, Thailand on May 5 unilaterally voided a two-decade-old agreement with Cambodia to manage their overlapping claims in the Gulf of Thailand. That prompted Phnom Penh, which recently ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, to declare that it would take Bangkok to compulsory conciliation under the treaty. Cambodia also activated a new conscription law on May 13, highlighting the steps both sides are taking to firm up their posture along the border.

Japhet Quitzon is an Associate Fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. 

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