Support Threefold: Taiwan’s Pacific Island Allies

Three of Taiwan’s 12 remaining diplomatic allies are Pacific Island nations — the Marshall Islands, the Republic of Palau, and Tuvalu. In 2019, Taiwan enjoyed six diplomatic alliances with Pacific Island nations. That number has halved in just five years. Kiribati cut ties with Taiwan in September 2019, four days after the Solomon Islands. Nauru then switched recognition this past January, only two days after Taiwan’s election of William Lai, a Democratic Progressive Party member whom China believes to be a separatist. It seemed that Tuvalu, which headed to the polls in February, might be next after a prospective Prime Minister said he would review Tuvaluan relations with Taiwan. However, the new government has stated it will uphold existing diplomatic ties.
Taiwan’s Pacific Island allies are small in population but substantial in support. They demonstrate Taiwan’s independent economic aid capabilities in the Pacific and help forge Taiwan’s presence in international forums. Still, threats to the alliances persist.
Diplomatic Alliance Overview
Taiwan’s 12 official diplomatic allies recognize Taiwan as the Republic of China — and thus do not have official relations with Beijing. However, switching from Taipei to Beijing is not permanent; Nauru switched to China in 2002, back to Taiwan in 2005, and again to China in 2024.
For Taiwan, official diplomatic relations with Pacific Island nations primarily strengthen ties between like-minded countries, increase Taiwan’s recognition on the global stage, and enhance economic interconnectivity. Formal defense agreements are not a part of these relationships; Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu have no regular military forces. Official recognition of Taiwan works more as diplomatic deterrence. When Pacific Islands recognize Taiwan, it prevents Beijing from openly placing government assets in the country and reduces China’s influence in the Pacific Islands Forum — Oceania’s primary regional organization.
Threats to Pacific Island Recognition of Taiwan
Pacific Islands typically sever ties with Taiwan for China’s economic benefits, which can be attractive. For the Solomon Islands, China allegedly offered parliament members more than $165,000 each to switch to China, doubled the discretionary funds given to MPs to use in their respective districts, and bankrolled a flashy $71m sports stadium built for the Pacific Games.
China also offers policing and security agreements. In January, Papua New Guinea (PNG) announced that China had approached PNG last September, offering to assist its police force with training, new equipment, and surveillance technology. This news came weeks after January’s deadly riots in the PNG capital, where Prime Minister James Marape faced calls to resign. China has made progress on policing efforts throughout the Pacific Islands. For example, in the past two years, China has signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, established police operations in Kiribati (a neighbor of Hawaii), and sent a security delegation to Tonga as assistance for the Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting, hosted by the island this August.
Reciprocal Benefits of Diplomatic Alliances
Because of Taiwan’s budget constraints, its ability to offer economic incentives tends to be limited to countries with small populations or a low GDP per capita on a global scale. However, relative to their Pacific Island neighbors, Taiwan’s diplomatic allies have high GDPs for the region. The Solomon Islands (which recognizes China) has a $2,205 GDP per capita compared to Tuvalu’s $5,222 GDP per capita, the Marshall Islands’ $6,225, and Palau’s $12,922. A higher GDP likely gives the diplomatic allies bandwidth to evaluate the benefits and drawbacks of recognizing China. For example, in 2019, Tuvalu’s Foreign Minister said China approached Tuvalu with a $400 million project to build artificial islands to aid with climate change. Tuvalu rejected the offer, hoping that China’s proposals would be a lesson for other countries to be “careful and conscious” of the negative impacts of such an agreement. Taiwan’s remaining Pacific Island allies also have a population of less than 50,000, with Tuvalu at just 11,300. For the Islands’ small populations, Taiwan has focused on providing modest health, agricultural, and livestock projects. It isn’t a new sports stadium, but the quality of Taiwan’s aid is valuable for the diplomatic allies, especially in the climate change sector.
In return, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, and Palau voice their support for Taiwan in international forums where Taiwan is excluded, particularly in the United Nations. Taiwan repeatedly thanks the allies for supporting Taiwan’s inclusion in the UN and other international organizations. At COP 28 (the UN’s yearly conference on climate change), Taiwan’s diplomatic allies lobbied for its inclusion in the event because Taiwan is an integral part of these countries’ climate change relief efforts.
Additionally, Taiwan cannot be a Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) dialogue partner. The PIF is critical to regional diplomacy; 14 of the member countries hold a UN vote, and the PIF provides a platform from which smaller Pacific Island countries can interact with larger actors. The forum typically invites dialogue partner countries for post-forum discussion. Even though Taiwan cannot participate, its close ties to some of the Pacific Islands give it a chance to be a part of the conversation. Taiwan is involved in forum-adjacent organizations such as the Taiwan-Forum Countries Dialogue and the Pacific Climate Change Forum, which help pave the way for Taiwan’s presence in Pacific diplomacy.
Impact of the United States
This past year, delays from the U.S. Congress to provide funding prompted re-evaluations of Pacific Island alliances with Taiwan. The Marshall Islands and Palau are a part of the Compacts of Free Association (COFA), which provides federal programs and economic assistance to the two countries as well as the Federated States of Micronesia. In exchange, the U.S. gets military access to an area of the Pacific larger than the continental U.S. Originally submitted to Congress in October 2023, COFA funding saw a five-month delay due to congressional battles. Although Taiwan’s allies are inclined to partner with the U.S., climate change and pressing economic concerns necessitate timely funding, which spurred conversation about possible assistance from China. The U.S. Congress finally approved $7.1 billion in funding on March 8th for the COFA nations. The bill passed, but questions about the American government’s priorities and effectiveness may persist.
The COFA scare showed how belated funding from the U.S. has the potential to impact Taiwan’s recognition. COFA nations are targets of China’s ongoing bid to gain strategic access to the Pacific through economic incentives and diplomatic ties. Amidst struggles for U.S. aid, Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine wrote to the U.S. Senate, “There have been ‘carrot and stick’ efforts from the PRC to shift our alliances — including discontinuing support for Taiwan.”
Similar issues with funding preceded Nauru’s recognition of China this January. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said that Nauru’s switch was linked to Australia’s alleged funding cuts to an immigration detention facility on Nauru. However, the Albanese government rejected the statement, saying that funding arrangements for the center have not changed.
Forging Taiwan’s International Presence
Taiwan’s interaction with the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu also demonstrates its economic capabilities. Taiwan recognizes the critical issue of climate change across the Pacific Islands, providing its allies with high-tech early warning systems and green energy infrastructure. Taiwan also supplies necessary humanitarian assistance and bolsters the Islands’ tourism sectors. For other countries to befriend Taiwan, shared democratic values are important, but interests primarily drive international support. These Taiwanese-led projects in the Pacific Islands show 1) Taiwan’s capability to provide economic support and 2) that it plays a role in Pacific regional architecture.
While the media packs Taiwan rhetoric with militaristic language and concerns about China, it is important to consider Taiwan’s diverse, independent relationships with its official diplomatic allies. Tuvalu, Palau, and the Marshall Islands are small Pacific Island countries. However, these relationships with Taiwan — potentially impacted by U.S. funding — are powerful. They show that Taiwan is an independent source of economic aid for the region, a critical voice in international diplomacy, and most importantly, a trustworthy ally.