Global Conflicts to Watch in 2025: Escalating Humanitarian Needs

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs projects 305 million people will require humanitarian assistance in 2025. In its newly released 2025 Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO), OCHA describes the drivers of this unprecedented need, including conflict and violence that have led to the intensification of needs.  The global population living in areas fully controlled or contested by armed groups is estimated to have increased to 210 million people. Protracted conflict, compounded with natural shocks such as flooding, and political intractability, have driven displacement and worsened human suffering in several contexts, with some of the worst cases in Myanmar, Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine. Access constraints, funding shortages, and attacks on health and aid workers have left vulnerable populations in hard-to-reach areas exposed to ongoing violence and resource shortages during their time of greatest need. 60 million people across these four conflicts were unable to receive basic assistance due to physical, bureaucratic, and political barriers, including the degradation of norms regarding the provision of humanitarian aid under international humanitarian law.  

Funding has fallen short of meeting these needs. These four contexts alone represent a significant proportion of the global humanitarian need, while 2024’s global humanitarian appeal stands at only 43 percent funded. Amid escalating access constraints, humanitarian appeals for Gaza, Myanmar, Sudan, and Ukraine will likely remain severely underfunded despite obligations to protect the delivery of humanitarian aid under international humanitarian law. As 2025 approaches, humanitarian organizations anticipate additional challenges in funding aid delivery, including from major donors such as Germany and the United States. Humanitarian organizations and donors will face difficult choices as they work to balance needs with the funding available. 

This discussion brings together humanitarian experts, policy leaders, and field practitioners to reflect on the landscape of humanitarian need, particularly in conflict settings, in 2024 and look forward to which areas need attention in 2025.  

This event is made possible through the generous support of USAID.