The Latest on Southeast Asia: High Stakes Politics in the Philippines

The Philippine House Committee on Justice unanimously agreed to advance impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte on April 29, significantly clouding her political future. As with a previous attempt to impeach Duterte in 2025, the impeachment complaints are based on allegations of misused confidential funds and unexplained wealth. The complaints also address a threat Duterte made last year to have President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and his family assassinated. 

The stakes are high; if the impeachment attempt is successful and Duterte is convicted in the Senate, she would be barred for life from political office. Just two months ago, she announced her candidacy for president in the 2028 elections. Though the election is still over two years away, an April public opinion survey by OCTA puts Duterte as the early frontrunner. The upcoming election is a matter of political survival for the Duterte family. The vice president’s brothers are not a significant force in national politics and her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, was officially committed to trial by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity last on April 23. 

Both the Marcos and Duterte camps are also continuing to face the fallout from last year’s revelations about massive misuse of flood control infrastructure funds. In Duterte’s most recent impeachment hearing, the Anti Money Laundering Council traced $99 million worth of suspicious financial transactions to her and her husband. The Sandiganbayan – a special court tasked with corruption cases – on April 24 banned former House speaker and cousin of President Marcos, Martin Romualdez, from leaving the country as he faces investigation for alleged involvement in the scandal. In response, Romualdez broke his months-long silence on the issue, insisting that he alone could not be culpable for flood control budget anomalies and pointing the finger at other members of the House, Senate, and executive branch. Marcos has vowed a harder line on corruption and last year formed an Independent Commission on Infrastructure to investigate the anomalous spending. On April 16, Marcos announced the arrest of former legislator Zaldy Co, a key suspect in the flood control scandal, who had fled to Czechia. 

Corruption in the Philippines is especially frustrating to a public facing an increasingly high cost of living. Gas, electricity, and commodity prices are steadily increasing in the aftermath of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. This comes on the back of an economy already slowing due to a halt in public spending amid the flood control scandal. In March, President Marcos announced a national energy emergency. Transport workers went on strike later that month, claiming the administration was not doing enough to control prices. Given the political battles within the Philippine legislature, widening corruption probes, and public frustration over rising prices that are outside the control of the Philippine government, there are few signs of respite as the Marcos administration enters its final two years in office.  

Japhet Quitzon is an Associate Fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Gregory B. Poling is a senior fellow and director for the Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. 

For more political, economic, and security analysis on the region, check out our blog series, The Latest on Southeast Asia. To hear the latest news on the region and hear from Southeast Asia experts, listen and subscribe to the Southeast Asia Radio podcast on any streaming platform.