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The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is using military, maritime, and air pressure to normalize coercive behavior against Taiwan and erode the island’s military readiness. Between January 2020 and December 2025, the daily average of distinct China Coast Guard vessels entering Taiwan’s near waters increased by more than 500 percent, while daily incursions into Taiwan’s second maritime security ring more than quadrupled on average. Publicly reported People’s Liberation Army Air Force aircraft visits to dual-use airfields and airports that may support missions near Taiwan also increased. Together, these trends point to a growing and sustained campaign by Beijing to apply pressure on Taiwan across the sea and air domains.
This report introduces a spatial-temporal approach to tracking and measuring PRC coercion against Taiwan. Using open-source vessel and aircraft activity data, the CSIS Futures Lab constructed a three-ring maritime security framework and analyzed pressure by proximity, frequency, and strategic depth, especially as PRC activity approaches the Taiwan Strait median line and Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone boundary. The report also introduces an Integrated Pressure Index to quantify daily levels of PRC pressure and offers policy recommendations focused on persistent monitoring, readiness support for Taiwan, and preauthorized response options for the United States and its allies.
Brief by Jose M. Macias III and Benjamin Jensen — October 8, 2025
Report by Thomas Hader, Benjamin Jensen, Divya Ramjee, and Jose M. Macias III — June 4, 2025
Commentary by Benjamin Jensen — April 17, 2025
