Lower Than Tokyo: Mexico's Fertility Shock and Growth Puzzle

In this episode, Mariana Campero speaks with Valeria Moy, Director of IMCO and host of the Peras y Manzanas podcast. They kick off with a demographic shockwave: Mexico’s Statistics Institute, INEGI, released an intercensal figures which revealed that Mexico’s fertility rate plummeted to 1.2, with Mexico City dropping to an astonishing 0.8—lower than Tokyo. What does the rapid shattering of the "endless young labor supply" mean for the nation's pension system, long-term productivity, and labor market?

Beyond the demographic shift, they tackle Mexico’s persistent growth puzzle. Despite direct access to the world’s largest market, annual GDP growth remains stagnant at around 2% (or lower). Valeria unpacks the structural bottlenecks, fiscal handcuffs left behind by previous infrastructure projects, low tax revenues due to an informal economy, and the widening gap between nearshoring hype and actual foreign direct investment.

From the trade-offs of the "Super Peso" to the real economic costs of judicial uncertainty and insecurity, this episode delivers a sharp, reality-grounded look at what it will take for President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration to unlock real potential growth or not.