Gray Zone Project

The United States is being confronted with the liabilities of its strengths. Given the significant costs of engaging the United States in combat, and the growing range of indirect and non-military tools at their disposal, rivals are seeking ways to achieve relative gains without triggering escalation. From fake news and online troll farms to terrorist financing and paramilitary provocations, these approaches often lie in the contested arena somewhere between routine statecraft and open warfare—the “gray zone.”

The gray zone phenomenon is also referred to as hybrid threats, sharp power, political warfare, malign influence, irregular warfare, and modern deterrence. Although it reflects an age-old approach, it is newly broad in its application. Today, the toolkit for coercion below the level of direct warfare includes information operations, political coercion, economic coercion, cyber operations, proxy support, and provocation by state-controlled Forces. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, as well as non-state actors, are increasingly turning to these strategies to overcome U.S. strengths in global diplomacy, law, and commerce.

CSIS’s International Security Program has analyzed these threats and how the United States can best deter, campaign in, and respond to gray zone approaches. Meet our scholars and explore our work here.

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By Other Means – Part II: U.S. Priorities in the Gray Zone

Geopolitical competition is increasingly playing out in the space beyond diplomacy and short of conventional war, sometimes referred to as the gray zone. The nature of this compe­tition is forcing the United States to confront the liabilities of its strengths. This report assesses current U.S. government actions to deter, campaign through, and respond to competitors’ gray zone tactics.

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All Gray Zone Project Content

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Partners, Not Proxies: Capacity Building in Hybrid Warfare

Security partners operate on the front lines of hybrid warfare environments. A principled approach to security partnerships and integrating partners into civilian-led campaigns for hybrid warfare will increase alliance-wide strategic action and operational effectiveness.

Brief by Hijab Shah and Melissa Dalton — May 27, 2020

By Other Means Part II: Adapting to Compete in the Gray Zone

This report assesses current U.S. government actions in responding to gray zone activities and provides recommendations aimed at improving U.S. national security in the presence of rivals’ gray zone approaches.

Report by Lindsey R. Sheppard Alice Hunt Friend Megan Donahoe Matthew Conklin Joseph Kiernan Melissa Dalton Kathleen H. Hicks and Joseph Federici — August 13, 2019

Case Study: First Solar, 2006 – 2012

Several challenges emerged that threated the viability of many U.S. solar power companies, including First Solar, Inc. This case study examines the decisions made by First Solar to remain viable in a volatile market and looks at lessons to apply to gray zone challenges.

Report by Joseph Haberman and Joseph Federici — August 13, 2019

Case Study: Israel’s Competition with Iran: 1991 – 2015

Since 1979, relations between Iran and Israel deteriorated into a decades-long gray zone competition, which continues today. This case study examines the organizational and policy shifts made by Israel between the First Gulf War and 2015.

Report — August 13, 2019

Case Study: The U.S. Government in the Cold War

During the Cold War, both the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in gray zone activity.  Understanding how the United States organized—and re-organized—itself from 1947 to 1989 is critical in approaching the gray zone challenges faced today.

Report by Joseph Kiernan — August 13, 2019

Warning for the Gray Zone

Gray zone campaigns are challenging given that warning requires detection of a weak signal through global noise and across threat vectors and regional boundaries. Thus, warning in the gray zone means identifying and assessing new patterns throughout new sources of data.

Report by Lindsey R. Sheppard and Matthew Conklin — August 13, 2019

Russia in the Gray Zone

Russia has become expert in using non-military activities in the “gray zone” to wage battles that help it achieve its security goals. CSIS’s Kathleen Hicks argues that the United States must leverage its strategic advantages and mount a campaign to fight back.

Commentary by Kathleen H. Hicks — July 25, 2019

By Other Means Part I: Campaigning in the Gray Zone

This new CSIS report argues that with U.S. competitors increasingly operating in the gray zone between routine statecraft and open war, the United States must develop a campaign plan to deal with the gray zone challenge.

Report by Lindsey R. Sheppard Alice Hunt Friend Hijab Shah Asya Akca Kathleen H. Hicks and Joseph Federici — July 8, 2019

Competing in the Gray Zone

In a new CQ piece, Michael Matlaga and John Schaus from CSIS International Security Program explain the “gray zone” and the United States’ current readiness to compete in this space as it continues to face an array of challenges from adversaries.

Critical Questions by John Schaus and Michael Matlaga — October 24, 2018