2015 Global Forecast

Crisis and Opportunity

Maintaining international security and pursuing American interests is more difficult now than perhaps at any time in history. The security environment that the United States faces is more complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict. At the same time, no domestic consensus exists on the purposes of American power and how best to pursue them. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will look ahead in this annual volume at the crises and opportunities that will likely arise in 2015, how best to deal with them, and what lasting effects they might leave for the next American administration and its allies around the world.




The Case for Deterrence
Kathleen H. Hicks

Rebuilding Credibility: Regional Perspectives
A conversation with Jon B. Alterman, Heather A. Conley, and Michael J. Green
Moderated by Stephanie Sanok Kostro

Why Deterrence Failed to Prevent Syrian Use of WMD
Sharon Squassoni

A Nuclear Deterrent for the 21st Century
Clark A. Murdock

Deterrence in the Cyber Age
James A. Lewis

The Role of Conventional Forces in Deterrence
Maren Leed

The Challenge of Deterring ISIS
Thomas M. Sanderson


Russia’s Influence on Europe
Heather A. Conley

Putin’s Dilemma
Andrew C. Kuchins

The Calculations of Russia's Neighbors
Jeffrey Mankoff

Ukraine's Transition
Sarah Mendelson

A Test of Wills on Sanctions
Juna C. Zarate

Energy Codependency
Edward C. Chow

NATO’s Eastern Front
Andrew A. Michta


Acting and Reacting in the Middle East
Jon B. Alterman

The Need for Better Civil-Military Planning
Anthony H. Cordesman

The Challenge of Non-state Actors
Haim Malka

Counterterrorism Success and Failings
Samuel J. Brannen


Asian Perceptions of the Rebalance
Michael J. Green and Zack Cooper

Keeping Focus on Korea
Victor Cha

Economic Imperative in Southeast Asia
Ernest Z. Bower

The Long View on India
Richard M. Rossow

Maintaining the U.S.-Japan Alliance
Nicholas Szechenyi

Recalibrating on China
Christopher K. Johnson


The Evolving Institutional Landscape
Matther P. Goodman

Strengthening the Existing Order
Amy Studdart

The Evolution of the Global Trading System
Scott Miller

Geopolitical Instability and Energy Markets
Sarah Ladislaw

Divergent Perspectives of the Democratic BRICS
A conversation with Carl Meacham, Jennifer G. Cooke, and Richard M. Rossow
Moderated by Amy Studdart


The Trajectory of Ebola and our Response
J. Stephen Morrison

The Economic Impact of the Ebola Outbreak
Daniel F. Runde and Conor M. Savoy


Josiane Gabel

Jon Alterman, Samuel Brannen, Ernest Bower, Victor Cha, Edward Chow, Heather Conley, Jennifer Cooke, Zack Cooper, Anthony Cordesman, Matthew Goodman, Michael Green, John Hamre

Kathleen Hicks, Christopher Johnson, Stephanie Kostro, Andrew Kuchins, Sarah Ladislaw, Maren Leed, James Lewis, Haim Malka, Jeffrey Mankoff, Carl Meacham

Sarah Mendelson, Andrew Michta, Scott Miller, Stephen Morrison, Clark Murdock, Richard Rossow, Daniel Runde, Thomas Sanderson, Conor Savoy, Nicholas Szechenyi, Sharon Squassoni, Amy Studdart, Juan Zarate