2015 Global Forecast
November 11, 2014
Maintaining international security and pursuing American interests is more difficult now than perhaps at any time in history. The security environment that the United States faces is more complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict. At the same time, no domestic consensus exists on the purposes of American power and how best to pursue them. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will look ahead in this annual volume at the crises and opportunities that will likely arise in 2015, how best to deal with them, and what lasting effects they might leave for the next American administration and its allies around the world.
PART 1: WHAT ROLEWILL DETERRENCE PLAY IN AMERICA'S NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY?
The Case for Deterrence
Kathleen H. Hicks
Rebuilding Credibility: Regional Perspectives
A conversation with Jon B. Alterman, Heather A. Conley, and Michael J. Green
Moderated by Stephanie Sanok Kostro
Why Deterrence Failed to Prevent Syrian Use of WMD
Sharon Squassoni
A Nuclear Deterrent for the 21st Century
Clark A. Murdock
Deterrence in the Cyber Age
James A. Lewis
The Role of Conventional Forces in Deterrence
Maren Leed
The Challenge of Deterring ISIS
Thomas M. Sanderson
PART 2: WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF PUTIN'S NEW RUSSIA?
Russia’s Influence on Europe
Heather A. Conley
Putin’s Dilemma
Andrew C. Kuchins
The Calculations of Russia's Neighbors
Jeffrey Mankoff
Ukraine's Transition
Sarah Mendelson
A Test of Wills on Sanctions
Juna C. Zarate
Energy Codependency
Edward C. Chow
NATO’s Eastern Front
Andrew A. Michta
PART 3: HOW CAN THE UNITED STATES BEST EXERT INFLUENCE IN TODAY'S MIDDLE EAST?
Acting and Reacting in the Middle East
Jon B. Alterman
The Need for Better Civil-Military Planning
Anthony H. Cordesman
The Challenge of Non-state Actors
Haim Malka
Counterterrorism Success and Failings
Samuel J. Brannen
PART 4: IS THE REBALANCE TO ASIA SUSTAINABLE?
Asian Perceptions of the Rebalance
Michael J. Green and Zack Cooper
Keeping Focus on Korea
Victor Cha
Economic Imperative in Southeast Asia
Ernest Z. Bower
The Long View on India
Richard M. Rossow
Maintaining the U.S.-Japan Alliance
Nicholas Szechenyi
Recalibrating on China
Christopher K. Johnson
PART 5: IS A COMPETING ECONOMIC ORDER EMERGING?
The Evolving Institutional Landscape
Matther P. Goodman
Strengthening the Existing Order
Amy Studdart
The Evolution of the Global Trading System
Scott Miller
Geopolitical Instability and Energy Markets
Sarah Ladislaw
Divergent Perspectives of the Democratic BRICS
A conversation with Carl Meacham, Jennifer G. Cooke, and Richard M. Rossow
Moderated by Amy Studdart
PART 6: WILL EBOLA EVOLVE FROM A HEALTH CRISIS TO AN ECONOMIC AND GOVERNANCE CRISIS?
The Trajectory of Ebola and our Response
J. Stephen Morrison
The Economic Impact of the Ebola Outbreak
Daniel F. Runde and Conor M. Savoy
