Photo: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
President Trump’s Middle East trip last month generated widespread attention—and in some cases, bipartisan concern—around the eye-popping business deals purported to be valued at $2 trillion. Less noticeable but more significantly, the trip contained the elements of a generational recalibration of U.S. Middle East strategy that would lay the foundation for a much-needed U.S. course correction in the region. Should the Trump administration successfully negotiate deals that neutralize Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities and bring sustained quiet to Gaza, the Middle East could enter a new era of stability and prosperity.
Trump’s three-day foray to the Gulf—specifically Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—resulted in billions in investment across several sectors including aviation, defense, and technology (specifically AI). Some announcements appeared aspirational (e.g., $600 billion Saudi investment and an eventual $1.2 trillion in Qatari deals with the United States), while others were more concrete. For example, Boeing executives signed a record-setting $64 billion deal with Qatar Airways and a $14.5 billion deal with the Emirati Etihad Airways. Perhaps most conspicuous was Qatar’s gift to Trump of a luxury 747 jet to replace the aging Air Force One. Valued at $400 million, the plane would be the largest-ever gift to a U.S. administration and has raised numerous legal and ethical questions.
Aside from the jet deals, the administration inked agreements in the AI sector, most notably a $200 billion deal with the UAE, including plans to construct the United States’ largest data center outside of the country. OpenAI’s subsequent announcement that it will build a large computing complex in the Emirates followed directly from Trump’s trip and was a clear nod to the expanded opportunities for AI in the region. The trip also featured more traditional defense-related agreements, including a $142 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia—potentially subject to Congressional approval—and a Qatari agreement to invest $10 billion to refurbish the Al Udeid airbase, the largest U.S. military facility in the region.
Yet the flashy deals may obscure the most significant impact of Trump’s visit: a decided reorientation of U.S. Middle East posture away from more than two decades of military-led, big-footprint interventions focused on counterterrorism and democratic nation-building. Trump has signaled his intent to instead move toward a more pragmatic, realist stance, characterized by economic and business engagements and devoid of U.S. moralizing on domestic governance issues.
To be clear, the Trump administration has not announced a new strategy or “Trump Doctrine” for the Middle East. At the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, Trump—ever the real estate mogul—praised Riyadh’s gleaming skyline, voicing his admiration for its “amazing” towers and “majestic skyscrapers.” He then noted, “Before our eyes a new generation of leaders is transcending the ancient conflicts of tired divisions of the past and forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos, where it exports technology, not terrorism, and where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence.” He also criticized “so-called nation-builders" and “Western interventionalists” for “giving you lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs.”
However inartful Trump’s rhetoric, and despite the lack of clear strategic framing, the president’s statements nonetheless contain the seeds of a significant—and arguably long overdue—shift in U.S. strategy. His words echo both U.S. and Middle Eastern fatigue with the decades-old status quo. Support for Middle East “forever wars” was waning in the United States well before the chaotic pullout from Afghanistan in August 2021. For the Middle East, U.S. preaching on human rights and democratic values—long viewed as hypocritical—rings even hollower given the region’s widely shared view of U.S. complicity in the Gaza conflict’s brutality.
Were the administration to connect the dots of the president’s various statements during his trip, it could construct a revised Middle East strategy focused on three key elements: (1) de-escalation, (2) post-conflict stabilization, and (3) economic and business-driven engagement. Running through all three elements would be an explicit recognition of regional agency—and with it, burden-sharing.
This new strategy would have the benefit of reflecting the dramatic shifts embodied by the region’s current “hinge moment.” The Middle East is witnessing a period of transformative change where the order of the past several decades is fading, and a new, region-led, multipolar order is emerging. Regional stakeholders—especially in the Gulf, its new center of gravity—are driving efforts to address the region’s challenges. Middle East mediators such as Oman and Qatar are engaged in resolving some of the region’s most intractable conflicts, including with Iran and in Gaza. Some of these middle powers are even playing a role mediating conflicts beyond the region, including in Ukraine, Sudan, Venezuela and beyond.
Gulf actors are also willing to put resources behind costly stabilization and reconstruction efforts in countries emerging from conflict such as Syria and Lebanon. For example, Saudi Arabia and Qatar recently paid off Syria’s World Bank debt, estimated at $15.5 million. Encouraged by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Trump’s announced lifting of Syria sanctions and his decision to meet Syria’s interim president were among the most strategic and significant decisions of his trip. Trump’s announcement could pave the way for a massive influx of Gulf resources to help rebuild the war-torn country, even more important given the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and significant cuts in U.S. foreign assistance. Gulf actors are similarly poised to help rebuild Lebanon, following the decimation of Hezbollah and the country’s turn toward a more reform-minded political leadership, assuming Hezbollah’s disarmament proceeds on track.
Trump’s transactional, business-minded approach to the region also jives with where the region is headed. Cognizant of the need to diversify their economies, Gulf countries are singularly focused on developing new sectors of economic activity, whether renewable energy, tech including AI and crypto, or modernized infrastructure. This ambitious vision imagines the creation of commercial and economic corridors across the Middle East, currently one of the least integrated regions in the world. If successful, it would knit cross-border business ties to create jobs across the region, building a more stable and prosperous Middle East and its fuller integration into the global economy.
Persistent conflict—most notably in Gaza—coupled with the fear of a potential war with Iran stand as critical impediments to the region’s transformation. Here, the Trump administration can play an indispensable role. Efforts by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff—charged with negotiating on both Gaza and Iran, among other conflicts—are central to a recalibrated Middle East policy. Yet spoilers abound. Both state and nonstate actors who seek to address these challenges primarily through violence could derail diplomacy. However, successful, U.S. negotiations on both Gaza and Iran—an admittedly tall order—could pave the way for a new Middle East and a recalibrated U.S. approach to the region.
Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.
