Photo: HENRIK MONTGOMERY/AFP via Getty Images
Changes in geopolitics, technology, and the climate affect all parts of the world, with Antarctica being no exception. However, as the only continent without any Indigenous people or permanent inhabitants, addressing those and other topics is done differently in Antarctica than in the rest of the world. Since it does not have its own population to make decisions about how to govern the region, Antarctica is managed by countries under the provisions of the Antarctic Treaty and related agreements. Countries make many of the key decisions about their governance at the annual Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM). The 48th such meeting will take place in Hiroshima, Japan, from May 11–21 (ATCM 48). CSIS non-resident senior associate William Muntean spoke to three of the key officials organizing this meeting.
The agenda for the ATCM includes many topics to advance the shared vision of maintaining Antarctica as a natural reserve that is devoted to peace and science. Some of those topics are focused on peace, such as transparency and unannounced inspections, some on scientific research topics, such as safety and operations and environmental protection, and some on existing or potential commercial activity, such as tourism and biological prospecting.
Ambassador Hideki Uyama, who is in charge of Japan’s hosting and participation in the ATCM, expects that environmental protection and tourism management will receive particular attention at the upcoming ATCM. Environmental protection remains one of the core pillars of the Antarctic Treaty system. Last year, ATCM 47 in Milan, Italy, adopted Resolution 5, “Towards ending plastic pollution in the Antarctic Treaty area.” Progress was also made last year in reviewing and revising management plans for Antarctic Specially Protected Areas. As for this year, Ambassador Uyama said,
One of the pending issues is the proposal to designate the emperor penguin as a Specially Protected Species. Emperor penguins are widely recognized as an iconic species of Antarctica, and they are highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Discussions among parties have demonstrated that achieving consensus on this designation is not easy. I hope that discussions take place at ATCM 48 in a cooperative spirit within the framework of the Committee for Environmental Protection to achieve consensus, based on the best available scientific evidence and through constructive dialogue among parties.
Regarding tourism, the number of tourists in Antarctica has increased significantly over the past decade, reaching almost 120,000 in 2024–2025. Not only is the number of visitors increasing, but the types of tourism activities have been diversifying from ocean cruises to air operations, from the Antarctic Peninsula to more pristine and remote areas, and the potential for cumulative impacts is growing. This situation necessitates agile and effective management for environmental protection in Antarctica. Recognizing these challenges, ATCM has initiated discussions on developing a comprehensive framework for managing tourism and nongovernmental activities in Antarctica. A working group dedicated to Antarctic tourism continues discussions, including those during the intersessional period, on how best to develop a comprehensive and effective framework. As for this year, Ambassador Uyama said,
At ATCM 48 in Hiroshima, I hope to see refinement and updates to site-specific guidelines as well as concrete progress towards establishing a comprehensive framework. This may include developing policies for managing growth in visitor numbers and the diversification of activities, addressing cumulative impacts of tourism. More transparent exchanges of visitor statistics, activity reports, and incident data are critical to this process.
Transparency is a key aspect that underlines much of what happens in the Antarctic region and is one of Japan’s priorities for the ATCM this year. If the activities of individual parties in Antarctica lack transparency, it can lead to distrust and suspicion among other parties. Enhancing transparency among parties helps build trust and ensures that all activities in Antarctica remain consistent with the principles of the Antarctic Treaty and strengthen the overall governance of Antarctica.
Specifically, the Antarctic Treaty established a two-tier monitoring system to verify compliance with the Antarctic Treaty. Both of these mechanisms—an inspection regime and a requirement for advance notification of activities in Antarctica—will be discussed at the ATCM. The United States conducted an unannounced inspection of various stations in January and will report on its findings at the ATCM. Additionally, Ambassador Uyama said the ATCM would address a key component of the advance notification process,
The ATCM’s ongoing review of the Electronic Information Exchange System [EIES] is highly relevant and significant. Last year, ATCM 47 highlighted the need to simplify data submission, encourage compliance with reporting requirements, and improve accessibility for all users. At ATCM 48, we would like to call on parties to share information about their Antarctic activities more proactively, since it is essential that all countries faithfully carry out information exchange and sharing. We hope that tangible improvements to the EIES platform will be implemented, making it more user-friendly for parties to submit critical information—from environmental impact assessments and activity reports to operational data, scientific findings, and tourism statistics.
Key high-profile topics that the ATCM will not directly address are calls to establish marine protected areas or re-establish regulations for krill fishing. Both of those topics will be addressed at the annual meetings of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources in Hobart, Australia, in October. However, there may be some discussion at the ATCM regarding the deliberate ramming of a fishing vessel by a vessel operated by an environmental organization in March.
ATCM changes its location each year. This is the third time that Japan has hosted the ATCM, with the previous times being in 1970 in Tokyo and 1994 in Kyoto. The Antarctic Treaty Secretariat provides continuity and facilitates the meeting.
The Antarctic Treaty Secretariat, which has been based in Buenos Aires since its creation just over 20 years ago, is small and cost-efficient, with a staff of 10, of which only 8 are full-time employees. It is separate from the United Nations, which allows it to instead serve the members of the Antarctic community within its mandate. Ambassador Francisco Berguño, the executive secretary of the Antarctic Treaty Secretariat, described the responsibilities of his team to be serving as the administrative and technical backbone of the Antarctic Treaty in a manner determined and mandated by the parties to the treaty.
Our main responsibilities at the annual meeting are document management, supervision of technical services, organization of translation and interpretation services, and support for the compilation and publication of the final report. As we have done in previous years, the Secretariat will provide information to the Antarctic Treaty parties to facilitate their decisions and oversight, including on our budget, the Secretariat’s annual program, and any information previous ATCMs have requested.
The secretariat works throughout the year to facilitate and coordinate the exchange of information among parties. It maintains a database relevant to the operation of the treaty and its environmental protocol, trains and advises parties in the use of the tools it has developed, and assists parties in their intersessional discussions on topics of particular interest.
Although the ATCM does not have as many side events and media as some other multilateral meetings, Japan will host two workshops in the venue just before and during ATCM 48. The first one is a Joint Workshop by the Committee for Environmental Protection and the Scientific Committee for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. This workshop intends to focus on climate change and monitoring. Strengthening scientific monitoring and improving coordination among relevant institutions are essential for deepening understanding of the rapidly changing Antarctic environment. The second one is the Second Workshop on Education and Outreach. The workshop will offer a good opportunity for parties to learn innovative initiatives that other parties have developed to communicate the significance of scientific activities and environmental protection in Antarctica to the broader public, especially to young generations. Ambassador Uyama commented on the two side events,
Japan strongly supports science-based discussions on climate change within the Antarctic Treaty System. We also believe that raising public awareness of the unique value of international scientific cooperation regarding Antarctica and the challenges it faces is extremely important. Japan has 70 years of Antarctic research activities and is fully committed to contributing to international scientific cooperation and knowledge-sharing. By enhancing outreach and communication efforts, we hope that many people around the world [will] have more interest in Antarctica. Such understanding will ultimately help sustain global support for the Antarctic Treaty System.
In addition to these official workshops, there are a number of organizations, such as the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition and the International Union for Conservation of Nature, which will host side events during the ATCM at the venue. Furthermore, the city of Hiroshima has been organizing various public events for ATCM 48.
Although not as well known in the United States as the race between Amundsen and Scott to the South Pole or the heroic survival of Shackleton, Japanese explorers and scientists also have a long history of exploration in Antarctica. Japan’s Antarctic research began over 100 years ago in 1912 with a scientific expedition by Nobu Shirase’s Antarctic expedition team. Japan established Syowa Station in 1957 and has continued opening new frontiers of knowledge with ongoing research since that time, becoming the first to discover masses of meteorites (1970s), the Antarctic Ozone Hole (1982), and huge forests of “moss pillars” on the bottom of Antarctic lakes (1995). The Japanese discovery of the ozone hole, combined with other scientific research on the topic, led to the Montreal Protocol of 1987, which phased out the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances. The 2025 ozone hole is the fifth smallest since 1992, with the annual ozone hole forming later and breaking up earlier, demonstrating the success of that agreement. Additionally, Japan successfully drilled through a 3,000-meter-thick ice sheet in 2006 and clarified the mechanisms underlying the showers of aurora-generating high-energy electrons and their effect on the atmosphere in 2019.
Dr. Yoshifumi Nogi, the director-general of Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research, said the importance of Antarctic research is increasing because changes in the Antarctic environment can have a marked impact on global climate systems. He said that Japan is particularly interested in clarifying the changes that have occurred in the ice sheet, atmosphere, and ocean circulation of the Antarctic from past to present to understand the mechanisms underlying these environmental changes and predict the global environment in the future. Dr. Nogi added,
Japan has conducted Antarctic research according to a six-year Japanese Antarctic Research Projects laid out by the Japanese government. Phase X of the Japanese Antarctic Research Project that began with the 64th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition in 2022 includes both fundamental observation aimed at continually obtaining and publishing important scientific data that is demanded internationally and socially, and conducting an innovative and pioneering research project on the unique features of Antarctica. Prioritized research project findings in Phase X focus on characterizing the future global environment system as inferred through investigating the past and present of the Antarctic. The project also includes a broad range of other activities, such as international collaboration, reaching out research outcomes to the public, and collaborating with educational organizations.
Consistent with Japan’s focus on promoting transparency at the ATCM, he confirmed that the data collected are shared with the world to help preserve the global environment and advance scientific knowledge.
The ATCM is not open to the public, and parties generally do not engage with the media during the negotiating period, so there will likely be little public information about the meeting until its conclusion, when decisions are finalized. As there have been since the first ATCM in 1961, there are questions about the long-term prospects for the Antarctic Treaty and the system built around it. The ATCM is likely to answer only some of those questions.
Today, as before, skeptics doubt that countries that compete with each other elsewhere in the world can cooperate in Antarctica. A single meeting will not dispel this concern, just as 65 years of its demonstrated success in international collaboration to peacefully govern the region via the Antarctic Treaty system remains insufficient evidence to those who doubt that such a system is even possible. Instead, we will wait to learn whether the ATCM has agreed to take incremental steps to strengthen the transparency of activities in the region and whether the treaty parties will open their own meeting in response to a growing interest in Antarctica and how it is governed.
Additionally, a growing number of people are concerned about Antarctica’s important role in a changing global climate system. Similarly, though, a single meeting is unlikely to signal a renewed commitment by all treaty members to address those significant environmental concerns. Instead, outside observers should look for nonradical results that continue to maintain Antarctica as a natural reserve devoted to peace and science that will provide fact-based evidence that assists countries in addressing those concerns in other international forums. One such step would be to designate the emperor penguin as a Specially Protected Species, even though such a designation would not assure the long-term viability of the species. Another would be to take additional steps to manage the growing number of tourists to Antarctica.
However, even if no big leaps forward are made, given today’s changing geopolitical reality, preserving roughly 10 percent of the globe for peace, science, and protection would be a successful ATCM.
William Muntean is a senior associate (non-resident) of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
