How Are Perceptions of the U.S.-Mexico Relationship Changing?

In late December 2025, Politico published a poll indicating that a majority of Canadians say the United States is “a negative force globally.” In February of this year, another poll, this time conducted by Politico, showed that nearly 60 percent of Canadians view the United States as an unreliable ally. Further, a poll conducted by Canadian polling firm Abacus Data revealed that 68 percent of Canadians have a negative impression of the United States, down 8 percent since 2025 and placing the United States at the bottom of the list of tested countries, below even China. Given the long-standing close relationship across the world’s longest undefended border, this shift in attitude is troubling and disappointing. 

Though a bit more nuanced, Mexican perceptions of the United States are comparable. The U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship is one of our country’s most dynamic, with an impact on the daily lives of all Americans unlike any other (even Canada). Dating back more than two centuries, the U.S.-Mexico relationship encompasses familial, cultural, and geographic elements in addition to commercial and investment links. Nevertheless, the intense focus on security issues at the presidential level somewhat influences the perceptions held by the Mexican public. Its views about the United States in general likely track closely with their views on whether and how the United States should engage to combat drug trafficking. A recently published poll revealed that while 44 percent of respondents had a favorable view of the United States, nearly half expressed unfavorable or very unfavorable views. Opinions about President Donald Trump were even less nuanced, with 81 percent of respondents expressing a negative view of the president in January 2026.

Despite Mexican society’s negative views of the Trump administration, the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship is strong, with frequent interaction at all levels of government and civil society. There is an awareness, on both sides of the border, that bilateral cooperation is required to resolve several key policy challenges, including (1) the trafficking of drugs, people, and weapons; (2) the current review of the USCMA agreement, including North America’s relationship with China; and (3) broader challenges related to health and the environment.

A series of conversations between the author and former and current Mexican government officials identifies several areas of concern that are likely to persist, even if the next U.S. administration chooses a different approach. In the words of one former Mexican health official, “the world is not going to go back to what we consider normal.”

The concerns identified can be grouped into three broad categories and were addressed to a greater or lesser extent in each conversation.

Day-to-Day Relationships

Two of the most common descriptions of the relationship were uncertainty and lack of predictability. A diplomat formerly assigned to the Mexican embassy observed that interactions were less technical and more “based on vibes,” adding that it was clear that State Department counterparts were unaware or uncertain about the policy and the chain of command. As a result, the Mexican embassy “didn’t know how valid messages from the State Department were, or how long they would remain the stated policy of the U.S. government. It could change from one day to the next.” The noteworthy change in U.S. attitudes also caught the attention of the former health official, who observed, “What’s been amazing is the openness. So, frontal about things like Venezuela—we’re after the oil. Wasn’t expecting something so brash and unapologetic.”

The potential for a unilateral attack by the United States against drug cartel targets in Mexico remains a concern for Mexican officials at all levels. While some think the likelihood is low, none were willing to discount the possibility entirely. Given Mexico’s loss of over half of its territory in the Mexican-American War (1846–1848), the occupation of Veracruz in 1914, and uncertain levels of involvement of the CIA in Mexico since the start of the Cold War, the country and its people remain suspicious of U.S. military involvement.

A January 2026 poll published by El Financiero found that 79 percent of respondents opposed the entry of U.S. forces into Mexico to combat criminal groups in Mexico. Notably, following the deaths of two CIA agents and two Mexican police officers in a car crash in Chihuahua, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s public comments focused on asking why the Americans were operating in Mexico, not whether they were in pursuit of legitimate targets or if their deaths were retaliatory. The focus on the authorization for the agents to be in Mexico rather than on the activity being interrupted is further underscored by the observation by a multilateral organization representative that in the event of unilateral action, “Even the very good cooperation that they have achieved now on security issues, which is at the highest point recognized by the generals here in the United States, by the FBI, by everyone, even that kind of cooperation will be in danger.” It would be extremely difficult, in other words, for President Sheinbaum to ignore or downplay unilateral action

More generally, the former embassy official described the terrible uncertainty that surrounds every call between Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum and the worry that “this could be the call that ends badly and will completely transform the operative relationship.”

Damage to the relationship extends beyond security matters or conversations at the presidential level. A former health official, speaking about prior collaboration between the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Mexican health and regulatory agencies, noted that the “CDC was highly regarded reference for the region and for Mexico in particular, and may still be. There were strong ties between CDC and Mexico; CDC provided guidance on vaccination strategies, for example. If that changes, what does it mean for cooperation on principles and guidelines? CDC was regarded as best source of information for decisionmaking.”

Economic and Commercial Ties

With the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) up for review in July of this year, commercial ties are subject to considerable attention. While this would have been the case under any circumstance, the Trump administration’s trade policy and aggressive application of tariffs have raised the stakes considerably. One former official noted that “countries will think twice about signing FTAs [free trade agreements] and creating dependence on the U.S.,” and predicted, “much more protectionism in the future, even if governments offer FTAs, because there will be protected sectors and because trade partners aren’t as trusted.” Adding to the uncertainty and complexity of the USMCA review is the fact that “the negotiators, the USTR [U.S. trade representative], the pure technical negotiators, are under a lot more pressure on other stuff, on nontrade things.” Similarly, a former Mexican ambassador to the United States observed that, “More people in Mexico are saying, ‘you can’t really trust the U.S. anymore. We had an agreement negotiated by the current president, and he’s coming for more.’”

The former health official predicted that the shift in U.S. trade policy will also provide lessons to other countries regarding their own supply chain vulnerabilities, thus, “countries will think twice before letting strategic industries change because of the dependence on foreign goods. This will decrease welfare because countries will feel compelled to produce more on their own, even though it is not possible to produce everything. The result will be a less prosperous future.”

On the Mexican side of the border, the former embassy official observed that, “Mexican firms are demoralized because of domestic conditions in Mexico but also because they cannot say ‘at least the U.S. does everything better and we should be more like them.’ They are demoralized by uncertainty and arbitrary decisionmaking.”

The former ambassador noted that there are small groups, on both the left and the right of the political spectrum, which feel that, considering current U.S. politics, Mexico should “break up” with the United States. Another, likely small, group applauds President Trump’s demands on Mexico, which they believe will allow (or force) President Sheinbaum to make needed legal and regulatory changes. Despite concerns, Mexican firms are eager to invest in the United States but fear the uncertainty of the investment climate. The former ambassador observed that the USMCA review was “a good time to strengthen North American relations, and it’s a paradox, but we’ve never been closer to losing it than we are now.”

Making a similar point, the multilateral organization representative noted that the United States is Mexico’s largest market and will be for a long time. “It’s a reliable partner in the sense that we buy a lot from the United States, inputs, and so on. We buy from the U.S., and that is always at better conditions than in any other country. But it has all this uncertainty that doesn’t make it easy right now. Doesn’t make it easy, and it doesn’t feel good, to tell you the truth.”

U.S. Reputation and Reliability

It is perhaps the longer-term impact of current U.S. political dynamics that raises the greatest concern. In the words of a former Mexican embassy staff member. “The idea that the U.S. is a less reliable partner than it used to be is already accepted everywhere. People no longer buy the idea that this is temporary and that if Trump loses, things will go back to the status quo ante. The United States no longer stands for a globalized world which you used to be able to take for granted.” Similarly, a Mexican representative to a multilateral organization pointed out that many governments (not just Mexico’s) are asking “if you can change things so rapidly from one year to the next, how can we be sure that there is not going to be another major shift like that (in the future)?”

For Mexico, the United States was traditionally seen as a model democracy and a standard to which Mexico aspired, though this is not the case at present. The January 2026 poll referenced earlier found that nearly two-thirds of respondents believe the United States is on the wrong path, while only 17 percent characterized it as the correct path. The multinational organization representative observed that, “The United States has been, in many ways, a reference for Mexico, in terms of the country that we want to build, the values that you want to build upon, this idea of democracy, of equality, of opportunities for people, rules, this idea of rule-based development. And all of a sudden, it’s like it’s not a reference anymore. Things are changing, and the values that we thought or the things that we identified with are no longer there, or they are being questioned.”

The Sheinbaum administration, and Mexicans in general, are much more skeptical about dealing with the United States. It would be difficult for Mexico to fully decouple, given the depth and breadth of the relationship, but officials and policymakers, according to the former ambassador, will be more doubtful. Further, and perhaps even more important, he noted that current U.S. actions reinforce the narrative expressed by those who have always called the United States the “evil empire.” “The way you say things is important,” he continued. “It comes off as the U.S. wanting to run over everyone, and this gives the enemies an argument.”

Conclusion

When speaking about the bilateral relationship, experts often observe that neither country chose its neighbor, and neither country can change the geographic reality that places us next to one another. The level of economic, cultural, and social integration also makes decoupling nearly impossible. However, the manner in which either neighbor behaves toward the other generally does have an impact on the quality of the relationship. Despite our history, the two countries have made considerable progress in deepening and broadening ties, especially since the negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement in the early 1990s. Yet the approach taken by the Trump administration is likely to push our countries backward from being friends and collaborators back to being sometimes reluctant neighbors. The United States will likely be worse off as a result.

Andrew I. Rudman is a senior associate (non-resident) with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.