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A majority of India’s citizens view the United States positively, and over 80 percent surveyed believe their country will benefit from ties to the new Trump administration. Over the years this support has allowed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to draw India’s defense, strategic, and other potentially sensitive policies closer to the United States despite his country’s historical preference for foreign policy nonalignment. Trade disagreements during the first Trump administration did little to disrupt this dynamic, both because India could retaliate against U.S. tariff increases and because other aspects of the relationship continued to broaden and deepen.
In contrast, the proposed Trump 2.0 immigration policies directly challenge the people-to-people connections that form the foundation of bilateral ties—widely recognized as a defining pillar of the U.S.-India relationship. There is a real risk that backlash over perceived unfairness or mistreatment of Indian citizens will undermine popular support for the United States and pressure Prime Minister Modi to reduce cooperation on trade and other areas of U.S. and bilateral interest.
The upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump provides an important opportunity to help turn potential conflicts over immigration into a proactive agenda that benefits both sides.
The success of the 5-million-strong Indian American community (“Non-Resident Indians,” or NRIs in Indian parlance), the nation’s best-educated and wealthiest minority group, is a point of pride for Indians back home. While not formally an immigrant visa, H-1B holders working in specialty occupations are allowed to convert to immigrant status over time. Given that Indians have received as many as 75 percent of H-1Bs annually since the program’s 1990 start, these visas are part of the origin story behind the success of many if not most NRI families. As do the companies that sponsor H-1B applicants, most Indians argue that H-1B visas fill a critical gap in STEM talent otherwise missing from the U.S. labor pool. They are not convinced by detractors who view the visas as a back door for employers to replace qualified high-skilled U.S. workers with lower-cost foreign counterparts, despite evidence that this has happened in at least some cases. Not surprisingly, reports that President Trump might eliminate or limit the program have garnered a lot of attention in Indian media and have already ruffled feathers. However, the Trump administration is not of one mind on H-1Bs and any changes to the program will take time to evolve.
Although until recently H-1Bs have grabbed most of the media attention, Indians will likely also be disproportionately impacted by the Trump administration’s pledge to deport all undocumented aliens. Deportations have already been on the agenda of the recent phone call between the prime minister and president as well as Secretary of State Rubio and Foreign Minister Jaishankar, who noted India’s commitment to legal immigration only and to repatriating some 20,000 undocumented Indians identified by the Trump administration. The removal has already begun on a relatively small scale, and India’s opposition has already criticized the treatment of the deportees. Not surprisingly, Indian media reports that Modi will raise this issue during his meeting with the president.
It’s notable that the opposition has stressed that any Indians to immigrate to the United States should do so legally; they have so far protested the fact that deportees were shackled, not the removals themselves. However, total estimates of undocumented Indians currently in the United States range as high as 725,000, which is 40 times the number already discussed by Washington and Delhi and 1,000 times the total number deported in the last 15 years. The significantly higher pace and numbers of deportations that will likely take place in the coming months are likely to create increasing controversy in India as well as among NRIs, particularly as some deportees may claim unfair treatment or personal hardship. Adding possible fuel to the fire, a large share of undocumented Indians hail from Gujarat—Prime Minister Modi’s home state—and Punjab, the state that finds itself in the middle of the Khalistan controversy, further increasing the public political pressure that the deportations may place on Modi’s government.
If not handled correctly, debates over visas and illegal immigration may also pit Prime Minister Modi’s base against President Trump’s, reducing the flexibility of either leader to respond to the other’s concerns. Both leaders should act now to avoid the potential for dispute and gridlock.
Despite the high media attention, there is time to accommodate both side’s interests in the H-1B program. Unlike the case with trade, India will have little voice in how U.S. policy changes will be made and implemented, even if U.S.-based Indian companies are among the largest users of the program. The program is not likely to go away any time soon, and many of the options on the table—such as lifting minimum salary requirements for H-1B workers, should be welcomed by those Indians who get the visas. Reiterated support by Modi and other senior Indian officials for enforcement of existing rules, including by Indian companies in the United States, could also ease potential tensions.
In months ahead, the Trump administration’s desire to prioritize AI development, a possible topic of discussion at this week’s meeting, may also result in a larger pie for IT and other skilled tech workers, reducing the U.S. impetus to limit the H-1B program. Continued efforts to connect both countries’ talents in critical and emerging technologies, which are likely to remain a priority for both leaders, will offer the possibility for other accommodations. These might include prioritizing H-1B and O visas in strategic sectors such as AI and critical minerals, and the development of joint degree programs in these areas by U.S. and Indian educational institutions, perhaps tied to Fulbright-Nehru scholarships. The result could be an increased pool of talent familiar with both countries’ innovation ecosystems.
As the removal of undocumented Indians has already begun, this is likely (and appropriately) to be the focus of the prime minister’s and president’s discussions next week. Among other steps they should consider is a joint effort to combat the trafficking networks that prey on Indian citizens wishing to travel illegally to the United States, the consequences of which can be deadly. Minister Jaishankar has already raised the need to address trafficking, and this could be a very productive joint effort. Both countries should also work together (including through the U.S. embassy and consulates in India) on public service campaigns that highlight the risks to Indians of illegal immigration and the increasing likelihood that those who do enter the United States illegally will be deported.
Both leaders should also announce their intention to prioritize the opening of new visa-issuing operations at the recently opened U.S. consulate in Bangalore and the previously announced consulate in Ahmedabad. This may go against both sides’ instincts—President Trump is pledging to slash the budget and government workforce. And the Indian government tends to be wary of agreeing to an increased footprint of the already large U.S. diplomatic presence. Reasons for illegal migration vary, but the current increase in Indians illegally entering the United States is directly correlated to the increase in visa wait times at U.S. consular offices in India. Consulates also play a key role in identifying and shutting down the criminal rings that traffic undocumented immigrants and false documentation for visa applicants.
The growth of U.S.-India ties has been so successful that it is hard to recall that just several years ago, relatively siloed issues could spill over and disrupt our broader cooperation. Working proactively to address immigration and visa issues will help both sides stay on track in working through trade and other potential areas of difference in the months ahead.
Katherine B. Hadda is a visiting fellow at the Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
