South Korea’s New President: Frying Pan to Fire

Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) secured a landslide victory in the 21st South Korean presidential election on June 3. With 49.42 percent of the vote and a 79.38 percent voter turnout—the highest since 1997—Lee comes into office with a solid popular mandate and comfortable control of the National Assembly, something his predecessor never had.

Q1: What happened in today's election?

A1: After a frenetic 60-day election campaign, South Koreans may hope that today’s result marks the beginning of a long-awaited normalization for the country, which has endured a 6-month constitutional and political crisis stemming from former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s short-lived imposition of martial law and subsequent impeachment. The election outcome was largely expected for Lee, who never lost his lead as the frontrunner, while the former ruling People Power Party failed to coalesce around a single candidate and overcome the stigma of being the party of the man who plunged the country into crisis.

The victory today marks a tremendous political comeback for Lee, who narrowly lost the previous presidential election by a mere 0.7 percent to the now disgraced Yoon, and was at one point mired in five ongoing legal cases, one of which had clouded his eligibility to run for this election until the Constitutional Court’s decision in late March. Furthermore, Lee’s win today brings back to office progressive political forces in South Korea that were last in office in 2022 under President Moon Jae-in, two years earlier than expected (South Korean presidents serve a single, five-year term).

Lee takes office on June 4, with no transition period due to the unique nature of this snap election, and will immediately have to tackle an unenviable backlog of domestic and foreign policy challenges. In this sense, the election closed the impeachment chapter but opens a new and even more challenging one.

Q2: Who is Lee Jae-myung?

A2: Lee Jae-myung is the leader of the progressive Democratic Party of Korea, a former National Assemblyman, and a two-time presidential candidate. He was mayor of Seongnam, governor of Gyeonggi Province, and is now the 14th president of South Korea. This is a remarkable achievement for someone who grew up in a slum south of Seoul, dropped out of middle school to work in sweatshops, and worked as a human rights lawyer and labor activist for two decades before entering politics in 2005.

Q3: What challenges await the new president?

A3: Lee arguably faces the most daunting challenges of any South Korean president since Kim Dae-jung was elected to office in the midst of Korea’s liquidity crisis in 1997. In South Korea’s two previous impeachment crises (2004 and 2017), recovery from the economic downturns relied on China’s economic boom in 2004 and the South Korean semiconductor export boom in 2017, but no such favorable factors exist today. On the contrary, what Lee must deal with is a markedly less forgiving external environment—war in Ukraine and Gaza, U.S. tariffs, Chinese export controls, and North Korea-Russia relations—all of which work against South Korea’s economic recovery.

Q4: What will the priority be for the next South Korean government?

A4: The economy will be the top priority for Lee. The Bank of Korea recently cut the 2025 growth forecast by almost half (from 1.5 percent to 0.8 percent), which marks only the fourth time the forecast has dipped below 1 percent growth since 1987. Furthermore, the global trade war between the United States and China, Korea’s two most important trading partners, has started to hurt the Korean export-led economy, with total global exports and car exports down 1.3 percent and 4.4 percent respectively last month. Korean exports to the United States and China have been hit even harder, with each falling by about 8 percent last month, while car exports to the U.S. market have dropped by more than 30 percent year on year.

The interim government that preceded Lee made no progress in alleviating the bevy of Trump tariffs, including the 10 percent baseline tariffs, 25 percent auto tariffs, 25 percent auto parts tariffs, 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico, and 50 percent aluminum and steel tariffs. South Korean trade negotiators under the interim government failed at winning tariff exemptions. With a reported June 4 deadline for countries to present their best trade deals and just a little over a month before the 90-day tariff pause ends on July 8, President Lee will find himself with little to no time to spare before tackling the most important task of his early presidency: reaching a deal with Trump.

Furthermore, there is an unspoken state of quiet crisis in the security aspects of the U.S.-Korea alliance as the Trump administration has plowed ahead with policies with major implications for Korea, including strategic flexibility and the potential withdrawal of a brigade from the Korean Peninsula. Reflective of these problems, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth skipped Seoul on his two trips to the region. Secretary of State and interim National Security Advisor Marco Rubio has yet to make a trip to the region.

Q5: What are Lee’s views on major foreign policy issues?

A5: On relations with the United States, Lee has refashioned himself into a staunch supporter of the alliance, calling it the foundation of South Korean diplomacy. The two leaders will probably have their first meeting on the sidelines of the G-7 summit meeting in Alberta later this month. There will be much to discuss: tariffs, potential troop withdrawals, and North Korea policy.

On Japan, Lee has given interviews this year in which he has acknowledged the importance of trilateralism and strong Korea-Japan relations and disavowed any concerns that his presidency would reverse Yoon’s reconciliation efforts with Japan and the Camp David process. This position will resonate with the Trump administration.

On China, Lee has called for a pragmatic, balanced approach and expressed willingness to “stabilize and manage” ties, underscoring China’s geographic and economic importance. Such policies could clash with the Trump administration, which has made clear that allies cannot expect to hedge between the United States and China by maintaining economic ties with the latter and defense ties with the former.

And lastly, on North Korea, Lee has called for dialogue and cooperation with Pyongyang but has acknowledged that an immediate inter-Korean summit is infeasible. Lee has also promised to reinstate the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, restore inter-Korean hotlines, and halt leaflet campaigns toward North Korea. Trump will likely re-engage with North Korea at some point, but could bypass Seoul in negotiating directly with the North Korean leader.

Victor Cha is president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Andy Lim is deputy director and fellow with the Korea Chair at CSIS.