Strengthening National Security Resilience in Japan

Japan has long been one of the most important U.S. allies, and its importance is growing as U.S.-China competition dominates U.S. strategic thinking. Beijing may try to coerce Tokyo both because of the close U.S.-Japan security relationship and because of Japan’s disputes with China that are independent of the U.S.-Japan security relationship. Japan’s strong economy and impressive government capabilities give it tremendous potential capacity to resist, respond, and adapt in the face of Chinese pressure. Nevertheless, Japan would benefit from additional preparatory measures for many national security–related contingencies.

This report assesses Japan’s national preparedness and identifies areas of relative strength and vulnerability, focusing on resilience in the context of demanding national security scenarios such as a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan or Chinese pressure on Japan over contested islands. To be truly prepared in the face of Chinese pressure, the report recommends Japanese planners place equal emphasis on security-related disasters and natural disasters; provide consistent resources to local governments on security-related issues; and clarify responsibilities for issues such as combating disinformation in a crisis. These and other measures will help bolster relatively undeveloped elements of national security resilience that China or another foe may seek to exploit.

This report was made possible by the generous support of the CSIS Strategic Initiatives Fund.