The United States Withdraws from Syria | State of Play

State of Play, a podcast and commentary series produced by the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, features timely analysis from CSIS’s leading regional experts on geopolitical developments and the future of the international order.

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On April 16, 2026, the United States handed over its last major base in Syria to the interim Syrian government, marking a significant milestone in the interim government’s efforts to reassert control throughout Syria. The withdrawal ends more than a decade of U.S. presence in Syria, as U.S. forces were first deployed to combat ISIS in 2015. A U.S. Central Command spokesman underscored that the withdrawal was “conditions-based,” signaling U.S. confidence that Syrian authorities will be capable of addressing any lingering ISIS threat. The United States will continue to support counter-ISIS operations through “partner-led counterterrorism efforts,” training, intelligence, and logistics.

For its part, the Syrian government announced that it has assumed full responsibility for combating terrorism and celebrated the move as another step toward reasserting sovereignty over its territory.

The U.S. withdrawal concludes more than 20 years of post–9/11 U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East that had prioritized the enduring defeat of al Qaeda and its successor, ISIS. It also demonstrates a shift in U.S. engagement in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, highlighting deepening U.S. ties with the new Syrian government. The Syrian government hopes that the United States will now increase its economic cooperation with Syria.

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Why Does It Matter?

The U.S. withdrawal from Syria is a testament to the success of the integration agreement between the Kurdish-led groups and the Syrian government. Since the January 30, 2026, agreement, no mass atrocities against minorities have been recorded in northeastern Syria.

The withdrawal is a clear win for interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa, who can show Syrians that he has almost completed his efforts to control all Syrian territory and that the United States believes his government can lead operations against domestic threats like ISIS. It is also a win for President Donald Trump, who unsuccessfully attempted to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria twice during his first term.

However, withdrawal carries risks. ISIS has been downgraded, but it has not been defeated, and it continues to operate in parts of Syria’s eastern desert. Should the Syrian government allow for security vacuums to open after the U.S. withdrawal, ISIS could seize the opportunity to resurge in poorly-governed areas, and the United States would not be able to play the same stabilizing role. It would come at a vulnerable time, as ongoing regional instability in Lebanon and Iraq creates challenges on Syria’s borders. The withdrawal also carries risks for Syrian Kurds, who have lost their external patron.

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What’s Next?

As the United States recedes from its role, a scramble for influence is likely to follow. The Syrian government is trying to cement its authority, and it may feel less restrained—especially with the Kurds—without U.S. forces in the area. The U.S. withdrawal also creates an opportunity for other foreign militaries still in Syria to assert their influence. Turkey could expand its security partnership with the Syrian government, and Russia could seek to leverage its continuing (albeit smaller) military presence, especially as a counterweight to Israel’s presence in southern Syria.

Meanwhile, U.S. engagement with Syria is pivoting from a focus on counterterrorism to an emphasis on economic investment opportunities. In a post–Iran war Middle East, Syria is expected to play a greater role as a key economic and energy corridor connecting the Gulf to Europe. Underscoring the need to bypass the Strait of Hormuz given Iran’s asymmetric threats, U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack has reportedly developed a plan that would feature Syria as a new energy hub. The United States might accelerate plans to reopen the U.S. embassy in Damascus, following the Trump administration’s February 10 congressional notification that it intends to “potentially resume embassy operations.”

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What’s Under the Radar?

The U.S. withdrawal could sidestep tensions that are bubbling between Russia and Ukraine in Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. Al-Sharaa has tried to balance relations with both states. He has allowed Russians to maintain access to two bases in Syria, despite their previous role in supporting the Assad regime. At the same time, al-Sharaa recently hosted President Zelensky in Damascus with great fanfare and pledged to increase Syria’s security partnership with Ukraine. This growing relationship has angered Russia, which may try to exert more pressure on al-Sharaa to grow its military presence.

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Mona Yacoubian is director and senior adviser of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Will Todman is the chief of staff of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS.

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Will Todman
Chief of Staff, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department; and Senior Fellow, Middle East Program