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In an era defined by rapid technological advancements, this report explores the evolving dynamics of deterrence and great power competition, focusing on the strategic calculus of revealing or concealing disruptive military capabilities. From hypersonic missiles to AI-powered systems, these technologies are not just tools of war but instruments of influence, reshaping perceptions of military power and altering the global balance of power. The report examines how states like China and Russia selectively disclose advanced capabilities to gain strategic advantages and compel rival nations to recalibrate their military assessments.
Drawing on formal models and historical case studies, the analysis provides insights into when and why states might choose to reveal secret military capabilities during crises. It identifies three key scenarios—substituting for direct military action, reducing risk in brinkmanship situations, and compensating for battlefield weaknesses. The report also emphasizes the need for reforms in U.S. national security planning, including integrating AI and modernizing intelligence tradecraft, to better manage great power competition in the shadow of game-changing technology.
This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.
