Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

Photo: PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images

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Since 2022, China has conducted numerous military drills and exercises simulating blockades of the island of Taiwan, a democracy of 23 million that sits astride one of the world's maritime chokepoints. What would happen if China initiated a blockade of Taiwan in the coming years? To understand the military challenges in countering a blockade, CSIS ran 26 wargames using a wide variety of scenarios.

Although China could inflict serious hardships, particularly by targeting Taiwan's energy sector, this wouldn't be a low-risk, low-cost option for Beijing. Any blockade creates escalatory pressures that are difficult to contain and could lead to a large-scale war. Building on existing preparations, Taiwan and the United States could strengthen deterrence by demonstrating that a blockade is not feasible.

This report is funded by a grant from the Smith-Richardson Foundation with assistance from the Diane Davis Spencer Foundation.

This report is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2025 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Tags

Asia, China, Wargaming and Scenarios, and Defense and Security
Matthew F. Cancian

Matthew F. Cancian

Associate Professor, United States Naval War College
Eric Heginbotham

Eric Heginbotham

Principal Research Scientist, MIT Center for International Studies

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