Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, International Security Program
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.

Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023

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Audio Briefs

Will U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine Bring Victory?

An audio version of “Will U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine Bring Victory?,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian — July 31, 2024

Audio Briefs

Will U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine Bring Victory?

U.S. deliveries of military equipment may be enough to stabilize the front but will not be enough for victory. Strategically, the war will still be a bloody stalemate, and this constitutes a partial Russian victory. Ukraine needs to articulate how it plans to win.

Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian — July 30, 2024

Can South Korean 105-Millimeter Ammunition Rescue Ukraine?

Last year, the Biden administration worked with South Korea to send over 300,000 155-millimeter shells to Ukraine. The administration may need to re-tap the South Korean munitions stockpile to arm Ukraine in the face of dwindling stockpiles and congressional inertia.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — March 22, 2024

Air Supplies to Gaza: Commendable Political Theater but No Long-Term Solution

Parachuting food into Gaza is an important gesture, but the United States and its allies would need to increase deliveries by a factor of 90 to feed the entire population. The practical solution is delivery by truck, but that requires cooperation among all parties. 

Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian — March 7, 2024

2024 Global Forecast: Conflict Zones

In the third installment of the 2024 Global Forecast—A World Dividing—CSIS experts offer their views on what to expect on the battlefield in 2024, from the outlook for Ukraine to critical questions about the long-term consequences of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Digital Report by Mark F. Cancian, Max Bergmann, and Maria Snegovaya, Romina Bandura, Kathleen McInnis, Elizabeth Hoffman, Eliot A. Cohen, Daniel Byman, Jon B. Alterman, Natasha Hall, Emily Harding, Craig Cohen, Alex Kisling — February 2, 2024