
Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.
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The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.
Report by Mark F. Cancian , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023
In the News
US dilemma in response to DC airspace incursion: 'Do you shoot or do you not shoot?'
Mark F. Cancian in Washington Examiner — June 6, 2023
Ukraine’s Next Target: Russian Trenches
Mark F. Cancian in The Wall Street Journal — June 5, 2023
Use of NATO arms for attack in Russia raises doubts about Kyiv’s controls
Mark F. Cancian in The Washington Post — June 3, 2023
Ukraine Situation 'Much Worse' for Moscow Than 2014, Russian TV Pundit Says
Mark F. Cancian in Newsweek — June 2, 2023
Are US arms sent to Ukraine being tracked so they can't be used for attacks in Russia?
Mark F. Cancian in ABC — June 1, 2023
Moscow drone attack exposes Russia’s vulnerabilities, fuels criticism of military
Mark F. Cancian in Associated Press — May 30, 2023
Russia Hits a Dead End in Bakhmut
Mark F. Cancian in The Wall Street Journal — May 30, 2023
Russia captured Bakhmut, but it cost thousands of troops and now its remaining soldiers are exhausted
Mark F. Cancian in Business Insider — May 24, 2023
All content by Mark F. Cancian
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Will Russia Control the Skies over Ukraine?
Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — April 25, 2023
Inside DOD’s FY 2024 Budget
Military Forces and Acquisition Programs: How Did They Fare in the FY 2024 Budget?
Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — March 17, 2023
What’s the Future for Aid to Ukraine?
Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — February 21, 2023
Aid to Ukraine: Much More Than Tanks
Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — February 2, 2023
Expanding Equipment Options for Ukraine: The Case of Artillery
Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian and James Anderson — January 23, 2023
Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
Podcast Episode by H. Andrew Schwartz and Mark F. Cancian — January 13, 2023

Report Launch―The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
Event by Mark F. Cancian , Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.) , Becca Wasser , William S. Murray , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023
The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
Report by Mark F. Cancian , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023
Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems
Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — January 9, 2023