Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, Defense and Security Department
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: CSIS

Photo: CSIS

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

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Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

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Reassessing the Strategic Value of China to Korea

With new administrations in Washington and Seoul, and discussion of finding a common approach to China, it is time for a bottom-up reassessment of China's strategic value to South Korea. South Korea cannot properly respond to U.S. policies toward China without a serious and comprehensive reevaluation of its relationship with its neighbor.

Event — May 13, 2026

The Last Line of Defense

China’s Win? The Missile Gap After Epic Fury

Retired Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian joins to examine the U.S. munitions stockpiles and what those shortfalls could mean in a future conflict with China.

Podcast Episode by Seth G. Jones and Mark F. Cancian — May 13, 2026

The Last Line of Defence
Executive Education

Inside DOD’s FY 2027 Budget

This course provides key insights from CSIS experts and practitioners on what the Trump Administration’s FY 2027 budget and strategy documents reveal about strategic priorities, major budget movements, force structure adds and cuts, and acquisition program changes.

Course Date: May 7, 2026
Registration Closes: April 24, 2026
Executive Education

Meeting China's Military Challenge

Engage with today’s most pressing defense challenges in this two-day course, featuring expert-led seminars and an immersive wargame which will illuminate the consequences of a U.S.-China conflict and the effectiveness of U.S. force structure and strategy.

Course Date: May 5, 2026
Registration Closes: April 24, 2026

Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire

The United States has depleted its missile inventories but still has enough to continue fighting this war under any plausible scenario. The risk is with future wars—particularly against a peer competitor like China.

Report by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — April 21, 2026