Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.
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The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.
Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023
In the News
Russia has forced the West to ramp up production of older weapons — even gear it wasn't making any more
Mark F. Cancian in Business Insider — July 5, 2024
Belarus is building up its military on Ukraine's border and bragging about the 'high combat readiness' of its troops
Mark F. Cancian in Business Insider — July 3, 2024
Is the precision revolution in warfare fading away?
Mark F. Cancian in Breaking Defense — July 2, 2024
Ukraine's first F-16s from the Netherlands will arrive 'soon,' defense minister says, with export licenses now issued
Mark F. Cancian in Business Insider — July 2, 2024
Changed rules for Ukraine mean its F-16s will arrive when they can make a far bigger impact, experts say
Mark F. Cancian in Business Insider — July 1, 2024
Explainer-F-16s' Arrival Not a Silver Bullet for Ukraine in War With Russia
Mark F. Cancian in Reuters — June 27, 2024
US defence industry faces uncertainty despite production ‘boomlet’
Mark F. Cancian in Financial Times — June 25, 2024
Biden's Gaza Humanitarian Pier Has Spent More Time Being Fixed Than Moving Aid
Mark F. Cancian in Newsweek — June 24, 2024
All Mark F. Cancian Content
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The Impossible State Live Podcast: Can South Korea Save Ukraine?
Event — May 13, 2024
What Is in the Ukraine Aid Package, and What Does it Mean for the Future of the War?
Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — May 1, 2024
What Is in the Ukraine Aid Package, and What Does it Mean for the Future of the War?
Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — May 1, 2024
Can South Korean 105-Millimeter Ammunition Rescue Ukraine?
Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — March 22, 2024
Reforming the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution Process
Event — March 8, 2024
Air Supplies to Gaza: Commendable Political Theater but No Long-Term Solution
Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian — March 7, 2024
2024 Global Forecast: Conflict Zones
Digital Report by Mark F. Cancian, Max Bergmann, and Maria Snegovaya, Romina Bandura, Kathleen McInnis, Elizabeth Hoffman, Eliot A. Cohen, Daniel Byman, Jon B. Alterman, Natasha Hall, Emily Harding, Craig Cohen, Alex Kisling — February 2, 2024
Security in the Western Pacific: Building Future Capabilities in the Time of AUKUS
Event — January 12, 2024
Security in the Western Pacific: Building Future Capabilities in the Time of AUKUS
Report by Mark F. Cancian — January 12, 2024
“Security in the Western Pacific: Building Future Capabilities in the Time of AUKUS”: Audio Brief with Mark Cancian
Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian — January 12, 2024