Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, International Security Program
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.

Report by Mark F. Cancian , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023

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Will Russia Control the Skies over Ukraine?

Shrinking air defense missile inventories mean that Ukraine may be able to protect its military forces, but not its cities or infrastructure. Further damage to electrical infrastructure will cause great civilian suffering, making the situation increasingly dire.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — April 25, 2023

Executive Education

Inside DOD’s FY 2024 Budget

This course provides key insights from CSIS experts and practitioners on what the Biden Administration’s FY 2024 budget and strategy documents reveal about strategic priorities, major budget movements, force structure adds and cuts, and acquisition program changes.

Course Date: March 28, 2023
Registration Closes: March 22, 2023

What’s the Future for Aid to Ukraine?

Aid to Ukraine has been bipartisan, but opponents increasingly call for negotiations. Supporters will likely prevail in the near term, but there could be some shifts in composition and increases in oversight. Battlefield success would avert worries about a “forever war.”

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — February 21, 2023

Aid to Ukraine: Much More Than Tanks

There’s much more going on with aid to Ukraine than just tanks. Commitments at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group for artillery, air defense, and armored vehicles are crucial. Most important: aid continues at high levels. 

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — February 2, 2023

Expanding Equipment Options for Ukraine: The Case of Artillery

As concerns arise about whether U.S. aid to Ukraine is sustainable, the Pentagon is increasingly substituting where inventories are running low. One option, a potential model for the future, is to provide the M198—an older howitzer—of which hundreds are available.

Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian and James Anderson — January 23, 2023

The Truth of the Matter

Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

CSIS’s Mark Cancian joins the podcast to discuss the wargame exercise he created for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

Podcast Episode by H. Andrew Schwartz and Mark F. Cancian — January 13, 2023

CSIS the truth of the matter

Report Launch―The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

Please join the CSIS International Security Program for the launch of a new report that features findings from 24 iterations of a CSIS-designed wargame modeling a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

Event by Mark F. Cancian , Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.) , Becca Wasser , William S. Murray , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

CSIS wargamed a Chinese invasion of Taiwan 24 times and found that Taiwan would endure as a democratic and independent entity in most scenarios. However, the costs were enormous. Victory is not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence to avoid war.

Report by Mark F. Cancian , Matthew Cancian , and Eric Heginbotham — January 9, 2023

Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems

Are U.S. weapons inventories getting too low because of transfers to Ukraine? Although most inventories are acceptable, some key munitions will take many years to replace. Often, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — January 9, 2023