Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, Defense and Security Department
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: CSIS

Photo: CSIS

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

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Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

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Executive Education

Inside DOD’s FY 2027 Budget

This course provides key insights from CSIS experts and practitioners on what the Trump Administration’s FY 2027 budget and strategy documents reveal about strategic priorities, major budget movements, force structure adds and cuts, and acquisition program changes.

Course Date: May 7, 2026
Registration Closes: April 24, 2026
Executive Education

Meeting China's Military Challenge

Engage with today’s most pressing defense challenges in this two-day course, featuring expert-led seminars and an immersive wargame which will illuminate the consequences of a U.S.-China conflict and the effectiveness of U.S. force structure and strategy.

Course Date: May 5, 2026
Registration Closes: April 24, 2026
Audio Briefs

Assessing the Air Campaign After Three Weeks: Iran War By the Numbers

An audio version of “⁠Assessing the Air Campaign After Three Weeks: Iran War By the Numbers⁠,” a new commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.  

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — March 25, 2026

Audio Briefs
Audio Briefs

$3.7 Billion: Estimated Cost of Epic Fury’s First 100 Hours

An audio version of “⁠$3.7 Billion: Estimated Cost of Epic Fury’s First 100 Hours⁠,” a new Commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — March 5, 2026

Audio Briefs

$3.7 Billion: Estimated Cost of Epic Fury’s First 100 Hours

Operation Epic Fury costs nearly $900 million per day, driven by the large expenditure of munitions. Because most of this is not in the budget, the Pentagon will soon need to ask for more money.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — March 5, 2026

With Trump’s Middle East Buildup, Think Desert Fox—Not Desert Storm

The United States appears poised to attack Iran just eight months after Operation Midnight Hammer. While U.S. military presence in the Middle East is at its highest level since five carrier battle groups assembled at the outset of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, it lacks the size and capabilities needed for major combat operations or regime change.

Analysis by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — February 27, 2026

Russia-Ukraine War in 10 Charts

Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine has reshaped European security, global markets, and the balance of power. These 10 charts break down the battlefield, economic strain, military aid shifts, reconstruction costs, and what comes next.

Commentary by CSIS Scholars — February 24, 2026