Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, Defense and Security Department
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: CSIS

Photo: CSIS

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

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Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

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War Costs Make Up a Third of the $87.6 Billion Supplemental Request

About one-third of the Trump administration’s $87.6 billion supplemental request is driven by costs related to the Iran war. The remainder funds other administration priorities, both defense and domestic. Some war costs will have to be covered by other budget mechanisms.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — July 13, 2026

The War May Be Ending. What Did Epic Fury Cost?

Iran war costs are estimated to be between $34 billion and $42 billion. As neither the FY 2026 defense budget nor the FY 2027 budget request includes war costs, Congress faces a major battle over paying for the war.

Report by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — June 23, 2026

Audio Briefs

The Next Caribbean Crisis? Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba

An audio version of "⁠The Next Caribbean Crisis? Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba⁠,"  a new commentary by CSIS’s Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Mark F. Cancian, and Henry Ziemer. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Mark F. Cancian, and Henry Ziemer — June 3, 2026

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Audio Briefs

Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project

An audio version of “⁠Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project⁠,” a new Commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — May 27, 2026

Audio Briefs

Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project

High expenditure of key munitions in Operation Epic Fury has created a window of vulnerability until inventories return to pre-war levels and then reach levels that war planners desire.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — May 27, 2026

Audio Briefs

The Politics and Repercussions of Washington’s Permanent Joint Board on Defense Pause

An audio version of "⁠The Politics and Repercussions of Washington’s Permanent Joint Board on Defense Pause⁠," a new critical questions by CSIS’s Christopher Hernandez-Roy and Mark F. Cancian with Jamie Tronnes, Richard Shimooka, Christopher Sands, and Philippe Lagassé. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Christopher Hernandez-Roy and Mark F. Cancian — May 26, 2026

Audio Briefs

Reassessing the Strategic Value of China to Korea

With new administrations in Washington and Seoul, and discussion of finding a common approach to China, it is time for a bottom-up reassessment of China's strategic value to South Korea. South Korea cannot properly respond to U.S. policies toward China without a serious and comprehensive reevaluation of its relationship with its neighbor.

Event — May 13, 2026

The Last Line of Defense

China’s Win? The Missile Gap After Epic Fury

Retired Marine Corps Colonel Mark Cancian joins to examine the U.S. munitions stockpiles and what those shortfalls could mean in a future conflict with China.

Podcast Episode by Seth G. Jones and Mark F. Cancian — May 13, 2026

The Last Line of Defence