Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, Defense and Security Department
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: CSIS

Photo: CSIS

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

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Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

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Audio Briefs

Trump Sends Weapons to Ukraine: By the Numbers

An audio version of “⁠Trump Sends Weapons to Ukraine: By the Numbers⁠,” a new Critical Questions by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — July 15, 2025

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Trump Sends Weapons to Ukraine: By the Numbers

Since President Trump took office, military aid to Ukraine has been on and off, then partially on, then on again, and then increased further. A series of visuals explains the history, the status of aid deliveries, and the recent U.S.-NATO deal.

Critical Questions by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — July 15, 2025

Trump Restructures the Pentagon Budget: Two Views

Who should win and lose under Secretary Hegseth’s direction to reallocate 8 percent of DOD’s budget? CSIS experts Mark Cancian and Melissa Dalton took very different approaches in a recent exercise: a global focus (Cancian) versus the implications of the administration's strategy (Dalton).

Report by Mark F. Cancian and Melissa Dalton — April 16, 2025

The Trump-Putin Phone Call: Some Promise, Some Disappointments, and Many Questions

Today's Trump-Putin phone call included some encouraging developments, such as a ceasefire on deep strikes and a process for continued negotiations. However, there is no 30-day ceasefire, and frontline fighting will continue unabated. This is only the first step in a long process.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Maria Snegovaya — March 18, 2025

Audio Briefs

Is Ukraine Now Doomed?

An audio version of “Is Ukraine Now Doomed?” a new Critical Questions by CSIS's Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — March 4, 2025

Audio Briefs