Mark F. Cancian

Senior Adviser, Defense and Security Department
Mark F. Cancian

Mark Cancian (Colonel, USMCR, ret.) is a senior adviser with the CSIS Defense and Security Department. He joined CSIS in April 2015 from the Office of Management and Budget, where he spent more than seven years as chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, working on issues such as Department of Defense budget strategy, war funding, and procurement programs, as well as nuclear weapons development and nonproliferation activities in the Department of Energy. Previously, he worked on force structure and acquisition issues in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and ran research and executive programs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. In the military, Colonel Cancian spent over three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, active and reserve, serving as an infantry, artillery, and civil affairs officer and on overseas tours in Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq (twice). Since 2000, he has been an adjunct faculty member at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, where he teaches a course on the connection between policy and analysis. A prolific author, he has published over 40 articles on military operations, acquisition, budgets, and strategy and received numerous writing awards. He graduated with high honors (magna cum laude) from Harvard College and with highest honors (Baker scholar) from Harvard Business School.

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Photo: PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images

Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

A Chinese blockade of Taiwan could see the greatest naval battles since World War II. Twenty-six wargames illustrated the risks to China, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States that would ensue. Preparations by Taiwan are urgently needed to enhance deterrence.

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Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — July 31, 2025

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Munitions Shortages After Epic Fury

Since Operation Epic Fury began, the United States has expended thousands of advanced munitions. Tom Karako and Mark Cancian discuss the state of U.S. stockpiles, replenishment challenges, and what depleted inventories mean for deterrence, allies, and future conflicts.

Event — August 5, 2026

Six Reasons Why the United States Is Low on Munitions

The Iran war has exacerbated the Pentagon’s shortage of key munitions, but it is not the only cause. There are also longstanding strategic, operational, and institutional reasons.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — July 31, 2026

Renewed Iran War Would Test Diminished Interceptor Inventories

U.S. forces fired many air defense munitions during the first phase of Operation Epic Fury. Resumption of combat operations has reduced inventories further, though Iranian launches have so far been lower than before the ceasefire. 

Analysis by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — July 27, 2026

War Costs Make Up a Third of the $87.6 Billion Supplemental Request

About one-third of the Trump administration’s $87.6 billion supplemental request is driven by costs related to the Iran war. The remainder funds other administration priorities, both defense and domestic. Some war costs will have to be covered by other budget mechanisms.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — July 13, 2026

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War Costs Make Up a Third of the $87.6 Billion Supplemental Request

An audio version of "⁠War Costs Make Up a Third of the $87.6 Billion Supplemental Request⁠," a new commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — July 13, 2026

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The War May Be Ending. What Did Epic Fury Cost?

Iran war costs are estimated to be between $34 billion and $42 billion. As neither the FY 2026 defense budget nor the FY 2027 budget request includes war costs, Congress faces a major battle over paying for the war.

Report by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — June 23, 2026

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The Next Caribbean Crisis? Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba

An audio version of "⁠The Next Caribbean Crisis? Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba⁠,"  a new commentary by CSIS’s Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Mark F. Cancian, and Henry Ziemer. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs.

Podcast Episode by Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Mark F. Cancian, and Henry Ziemer — June 3, 2026

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Audio Briefs

Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project

An audio version of “⁠Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project⁠,” a new Commentary by CSIS’s Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — May 27, 2026

Audio Briefs

Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project

High expenditure of key munitions in Operation Epic Fury has created a window of vulnerability until inventories return to pre-war levels and then reach levels that war planners desire.

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park — May 27, 2026