Wargaming and Scenarios

The CSIS International Security Program and Futures Lab conduct wargaming scenarios to examine how new technologies and decision making can impact global conflict.

Photo: MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images

The Evolution of Irregular Warfare

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have demonstrated that irregular warfare is a defining feature of contemporary conflict and a strategic domain in its own right. Ignoring it would be a grave miscalculation in an era of persistent geopolitical competition.

Commentary by Daniel Byman, Seth G. Jones, and Sofia Triana — September 16, 2025

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Benjamin Jensen

Benjamin Jensen

Director, Futures Lab and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department

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The Future of Seapower

Ukraine has neutered the Russian fleet using uncrewed systems and long-range strike. Yet, operations in the Red Sea and elsewhere reaffirm the value of traditional naval assets. How should navies balance investments in old and new capabilities?

Commentary by Mark F. Cancian — September 16, 2025

The Evolution of Irregular Warfare

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have demonstrated that irregular warfare is a defining feature of contemporary conflict and a strategic domain in its own right. Ignoring it would be a grave miscalculation in an era of persistent geopolitical competition.

Commentary by Daniel Byman, Seth G. Jones, and Sofia Triana — September 16, 2025

Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

This report analyzes the operational challenges of implementing and countering a blockade with a series of 23 wargames. It proposes policy changes to better deter a blockade and to cope with one should it occur.

Event — July 31, 2025

Lights Out? Wargaming a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

A Chinese blockade of Taiwan could see the greatest naval battles since World War II. Twenty-six wargames illustrated the risks to China, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States that would ensue. Preparations by Taiwan are urgently needed to enhance deterrence.

Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — July 31, 2025

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

NATO and Prototyping Warfare

In the future, NATO will revolutionize the way it organizes, operates, and fights through prototype warfare, becoming a more lethal and agile force capable of deterring and defending every inch of the alliance.

Commentary by Arnel P. David and Benjamin Jensen — July 8, 2024