Wargaming and Scenarios

The CSIS International Security Program and Futures Lab conduct wargaming scenarios to examine how new technologies and decision making can impact global conflict.

Photo: CSIS

Photo: CSIS

Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

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Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

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Benjamin Jensen

Benjamin Jensen

Director, Futures Lab, and Senior Fellow, Defense and Security Department

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Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.–China Conflict over Taiwan

A new report informed by 15 wargame simulations examines nuclear dynamics in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, assessing what creates the greatest pressure for nuclear weapons use in such a conflict, what happens if nuclear weapons are used, and potential off-ramps.

Report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew F. Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham — December 13, 2024

NATO and Prototyping Warfare

In the future, NATO will revolutionize the way it organizes, operates, and fights through prototype warfare, becoming a more lethal and agile force capable of deterring and defending every inch of the alliance.

Commentary by Arnel P. David and Benjamin Jensen — July 8, 2024

The Future of Hybrid Warfare

In the future, NATO should embrace the concept of hybrid warfare and incorporate it into how it deters and defends. Starting with resiliency as the first step, NATO can use its strengths to put adversaries at a disadvantage and strengthen its approach to hybrid warfare.

Commentary by Frank Hoffman, Colonel Matt Neumeyer, and Benjamin Jensen — July 8, 2024

Using Artificial Intelligence to Rethink the Unified Command Plan

This edition of On Future War explores how the U.S. military can benefit from creative artificial intelligence tools to integrate cyber, space, and electronic warfare, better organizing the national security apparatus and ensuring readiness for modern global competition.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Kathleen McInnis, and Jose M. Macias III — June 17, 2024

Algorithmic Stability: How AI Could Shape the Future of Deterrence

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are reshaping national security and crisis management. This report delves into the future of deterrence and the role of human judgment in an AI-focused crisis simulation.

Report by Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, and Jose M. Macias III — June 10, 2024

It Is Time to Democratize Wargaming Using Generative AI

If more people, from academics and concerned citizens to military professionals and civil servants, gained access to generative AI tools and understood how to integrate them into analytical wargames, the result would be a more diverse set of ideas guiding foreign policy.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, and Dan Tadross — February 22, 2024

Addressing the National Security Implications of AI

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) will be a critical capability for the nation going forward and central to integrated deterrence campaigns and warfighting. These capabilities rely not just on lines of code, but crucial to this endeavor is putting in place the right people, bureaucracy and data infrastructure that turns technology into strategic advantage.

Congressional Testimony by Benjamin Jensen — September 19, 2023