Visualizing Iran’s Escalation Strategy

Iran’s vertical escalation strategy seeks to inflict economic and psychological pain on its Gulf and regional neighbors, as well as provoke widespread disruption across global markets. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that the current disruption is already worse than any previous energy market shock, superseding oil market crises in 1973 and 1979 as well as gas market disruption following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Within the first 24 hours of the conflict, Iran escalated to hit not only combatant country military targets—within the norms of conflict—but also targeted civilian targets and critical infrastructure in non-combatant countries in the Gulf. In these neighboring countries over just the first three days of conflict, Iran hit civilian targets such as apartment buildings and hotels as well as critical infrastructure targets such as airports, ports, data centers, and energy-related infrastructure. Its widening array of targets—from purely military targets to civilian targets and critical infrastructure—intensified the conflict, provoking greater levels of disruption and imposing higher costs.

Beyond its escalatory tactics, Iran’s “eye for an eye” response when its key targets are attacked has ensured that the escalation cycle continues. For example, in response to strikes on its critical infrastructure, Iran targeted other countries’ critical infrastructure in return, including desalination plants and even a failed attempt to hit Israel’s Dimona nuclear research site in response to an attack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility. Going forward, should President Trump’s deadline expire and the president make good on his threat to hit Iranian power stations, a new cycle of vertical escalation can be anticipated, with Iran potentially following suit on its threat to retaliate in kind, hitting power stations and other critical infrastructure in various Gulf countries.

Methodology and Definitions

What Is Vertical Escalation?

Vertical escalation is defined as “increasing the intensity, scope, or severity of a conflict or attack.” In the context of the war with Iran, Tehran has opted to undertake strikes against a widening array of targets as part of its vertical escalation strategy. By hitting an expanding set of targets—moving from strictly military targets to civilian targets and critical infrastructure—Iran seeks to impose mounting costs by expanding the scope of disruption at the local, regional, or global levels.

Definitions of Targets

• Military: A military target is a “person, place, or object that, by its nature, location, purpose, or use, makes an effective contribution to enemy warfighting capabilities.” Targeting military structures, while significant, falls within the norms of warfare. We categorize this is as low escalation.
• Civilian: According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, a civilian target is “any person, object, or infrastructure in a conflict zone that is not a military objective.” In the current conflict, Tehran hit civilian targets including apartment buildings and hotels in neighboring Gulf countries that are non-belligerents within the first 24 hours of the war. We categorize this as medium escalation.
• Critical Infrastructure: Critical infrastructure refers to sectors that are “considered so vital that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination.” In the case of the Gulf, transportation/aviation, energy, and desalination targets are considered critical infrastructure. We categorize this as high escalation.

Mona Yacoubian is director and senior adviser of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.