2014 Global Forecast
November 1, 2013
After a dozen years of war, the 2008 financial crisis, budgetary contraction inside government, and growing political polarization, U.S. security policy stands at a crossroads as America finds itself lacking a durable political consensus on the nation’s role in the world. In Global Forecast 2014, CSIS scholars answer the questions that will determine the future trajectory of American power in 2014 and beyond. The report looks overseas at America’s ability to sustain its rebalance to Asia and adapt to the changing order in the Middle East. At the same time, the authors examine America’s ability to get its own house in order—to develop a sustainable resource strategy for defense and to rebuild a national security consensus to meet the challenges the United States will face in the years ahead.
PART 1:GETTING OUR HOUSE IN ORDER
Can We Rebuild a National Security Consensus?
Kathleen H. Hicks
The Snowden Effect: Can We Undo the Damage to American Power?
James A. Lewis
What Battlefield Lessons Have We Learned from 12 Years of War?
What Has Syria Taught Us about the Right Time to Use Force?
Clark A. Murdock
How Can We Develop a Sustainable Resource Strategy for Defense?
David J. Berteau
PART 2:THE CHANGING ORDER IN THE MIDDLE EAST
What Should the United States and its Allies Expect from the Middle East?
Anthony H. Cordesman
What Should the Middle East Expect from the United States and its Allies?
Jon B. Alterman
Is Russia Back as a Power in the Middle East?
Andrew C. Kuchins
Can We Stop Violent Extremism from Going Mainstream in North Africa?
PART 3:SUSTAINING THE REBALANCE
Should We Change Our Security Approach in Asia? A Conversation with Michael J. Green, Victor Cha, and Christopher K. Johnson
Moderated by Zack Cooper
How Important Is TPP to Our Asia Policy? A Conversation with Ernest Z. Bower, Matthew Goodman, and Scott Miller
Moderated by Murray Hiebert
How Will the Shifting Energy Landscape in Asia Impact Geopolitics?
Sarah O. Ladislaw
How Should We Address Nuclear Risks in Asia?
PART4:NONTRADITIONAL SECURITY APPROACHES
Are There Opportunities to Bolster Regional Security Cooperation? A Conversation with Heather A. Conley, Jennifer G. Cooke, Carl Meacham, Aram Nerguizian, and Ralph A. Cossa
Moderated by Samuel Brannen
What Can Civilian Power Accomplish in Foreign Crises? A Conversation with J. Stephen Morrison, Daniel F. Runde, and Johanna Nesseth Tuttle
Moderated by Robert D. Lamb