2014 Global Forecast

Craig Cohen; Josiane Gabel; Kathleen H. Hicks; Jon B. Alterman; David Berteau; Ernest Z. Bower; Samuel Brannen; Victor Cha; Heather A. Conley; Jennifer Cooke; Zack Cooper; Anthony H. Cordesman; Ralph Cossa; Matthew P. Goodman; Michael J. Green; John J. Hamre; Murray Hiebert; Christopher K. Johnson; Andrew C. Kuchins; Sarah Ladislaw; Robert D. Lamb; Maren Leed; James Andrew Lewis; Haim Malka; Carl Meacham; Scott Miller; J. Stephen Morrison; Clark A. Murdock; Aram Nerguizian; Daniel F. Runde; Sharon Squassoni; Johanna Nesseth Tuttle; Juan C. Zarate

2014 Global Forecast

U.S. Security Policy at a Crossroads

Report by Craig Cohen, Josiane Gabel, Kathleen H. Hicks, Jon B. Alterman, David Berteau, Ernest Z. Bower, Samuel Brannen, Victor Cha, Heather A. Conley, Jennifer Cooke, Zack Cooper, Anthony H. Cordesman, Ralph Cossa, Matthew P. Goodman, Michael J. Green, John J. Hamre, Murray Hiebert, Christopher K. Johnson, Andrew C. Kuchins, Sarah Ladislaw, Robert D. Lamb, Maren Leed, James Andrew Lewis, Haim Malka, Carl Meacham, Scott Miller, J. Stephen Morrison, Clark A. Murdock, Aram Nerguizian, Daniel F. Runde, Sharon Squassoni, Johanna Nesseth Tuttle, and Juan C. Zarate

Published November 1, 2013

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After a dozen years of war, the 2008 financial crisis, budgetary contraction inside government, and growing political polarization, U.S. security policy stands at a crossroads as America finds itself lacking a durable political consensus on the nation’s role in the world. In Global Forecast 2014, CSIS scholars answer the questions that will determine the future trajectory of American power in 2014 and beyond. The report looks overseas at America’s ability to sustain its rebalance to Asia and adapt to the changing order in the Middle East. At the same time, the authors examine America’s ability to get its own house in order—to develop a sustainable resource strategy for defense and to rebuild a national security consensus to meet the challenges the United States will face in the years ahead.

PART 1:GETTING OUR HOUSE IN ORDER

Can We Rebuild a National Security Consensus?
Kathleen H. Hicks

The Snowden Effect: Can We Undo the Damage to American Power?
James A. Lewis

What Battlefield Lessons Have We Learned from 12 Years of War?
Maren Leed

What Has Syria Taught Us about the Right Time to Use Force?
Clark A. Murdock

How Can We Develop a Sustainable Resource Strategy for Defense?
David J. Berteau

PART 2:THE CHANGING ORDER IN THE MIDDLE EAST

What Should the United States and its Allies Expect from the Middle East?
Anthony H. Cordesman

What Should the Middle East Expect from the United States and its Allies?
Jon B. Alterman

Is Russia Back as a Power in the Middle East?
Andrew C. Kuchins

Can We Stop Violent Extremism from Going Mainstream in North Africa?
Haim Malka

PART 3:SUSTAINING THE REBALANCE

Should We Change Our Security Approach in Asia? A Conversation with Michael J. Green, Victor Cha, and Christopher K. Johnson
Moderated by Zack Cooper

How Important Is TPP to Our Asia Policy? A Conversation with Ernest Z. Bower, Matthew Goodman, and Scott Miller
Moderated by Murray Hiebert

How Will the Shifting Energy Landscape in Asia Impact Geopolitics?
Sarah O. Ladislaw

How Should We Address Nuclear Risks in Asia?
Sharon Squassoni

PART4:NONTRADITIONAL SECURITY APPROACHES

Are There Opportunities to Bolster Regional Security Cooperation? A Conversation with Heather A. Conley, Jennifer G. Cooke, Carl Meacham, Aram Nerguizian, and Ralph A. Cossa
Moderated by Samuel Brannen

What Can Civilian Power Accomplish in Foreign Crises? A Conversation with J. Stephen Morrison, Daniel F. Runde, and Johanna Nesseth Tuttle
Moderated by Robert D. Lamb

Can We Adapt to the Changing Nature of Power in the 21st Century?
Juan Zarate