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Moscow’s War in Syria

May 12, 2020

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This report examines Russia’s military and diplomatic campaign in Syria, the largest and most significant Russian out-of-area operation since the end of the Cold War. Russia’s experience in Syria will shape its military thinking, influence promotion and personnel decisions, impact research and development for its arms industry, and expand its influence in the Middle East and beyond for the foreseeable future. Yet despite the importance of Russia’s involvement in Syria—especially as the United States competes with countries such as Russia and China—there has been little systematic analysis of Russia’s campaign in Syria. This research aims to help fill the gap and provides some new analysis and data. It conducts a broad assessment of the Russian campaign—including political objectives, diplomatic initiatives, and civilian targeting—which places the military campaign in a wider context. In addition, it compiles a data set of Russia’s civilian targeting and analyzes satellite imagery of Russian activity.
 
Overall, this report concludes that Russia was relatively successful in achieving its main near-term political and military objectives in Syria, including preventing the collapse of the Assad regime (an important regional partner) and thwarting a possible U.S. attempt to overthrow Assad. Still, Russia used a systematic punishment campaign that involved attacks against civilian and humanitarian infrastructure in an attempt to deny resources—including food, fuel, and medical aid—to the opposition while simultaneously eroding the will of civilians to support opposition groups.


For more information on Moscow's War in Syria, the CSIS Transnational Threats Project is proud to present Online Event: The Russian Campaign in Syria: Assessing Russian Strategy, Goals, and Operations

This report is made possible by support from the Diana Davis Spencer Foundation and the Sarah Scaife Foundation.

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Written By
Seth G. Jones
Senior Vice President; Harold Brown Chair; and Director, International Security Program
Danika Newlee
Former Program Manager and Research Associate, Transnational Threats Project
Edmund Xavier Loughran
Former Military Fellow
Jason Gresh
Brian Katz
Nicholas Harrington
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Related
Defense Strategy and Capabilities, Defense and Security, Egypt and the Levant, Geopolitics and International Security, Middle East, Russia, Russia and Eurasia, Transnational Threats Project

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