Ukraine's Decreased Grain Production Creates Opportunities for Russia

Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s agriculture sector precipitated a substantial decrease in Ukraine’s harvested land area. While the sector is adapting, reduced farming and export capacity in Ukraine has realigned global agricultural trade in Russia’s favor.  

1. Three years of war have rendered vast areas of Ukrainian farmland unusable and changed the nature of crops planted by Ukraine’s farmers. Amid soaring input, storage, processing, transport, and other costs due to Russia’s invasion, the latest data indicates that farmers who can continue planting have shifted away from grain crops and toward oilseeds. Oilseeds have become more profitable than grains, and demand for oilseeds as animal feed is growing.

2. Decreased agricultural production and exports from Ukraine not only undercut a major pillar of Ukraine’s economy but open opportunities for Russia to expand its agricultural trade and influence in food-importing countries, particularly in the Global South.  

3. The destruction of Ukraine’s agricultural sector advances the Kremlin’s political and economic goals. Russian President Vladimir Putin has clearly stated Moscow’s intent to “replace Ukrainian grain” on global markets, while former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declared food to be Russia’s “silent weapon” for rewarding “friends” and punishing “enemies.”

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• Russia’s Renewed Attacks on Ukraine’s Grain Infrastructure: Why Now? What Next? 

• Demining Ukraine’s Farmland: Progress, Adaptation, and Needs 

• Food as the “Silent Weapon”: Russia’s Gains and Ukraine’s Losses