The United States and Iran Announce a Deal to End the War | State of Play

Tune in here at 12:30 pm ET to hear CSIS experts react to the ongoing news of a ceasefire deal.

What’s the latest?

The United States and Iran have announced their agreement on a framework that includes a 60-day ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The MOU—slated to be signed on June 19 in Geneva—paves the way for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a central driver of the war. Details of the deal remain unclear, but both sides appear to have agreed to a cessation of military operations on all fronts and to lift their respective blockades on maritime traffic through the strait.

Iran will repeat past pledges it has made to never acquire nuclear weapons, and it will now engage in technical negotiations with the United States on the future of its nuclear program. Over the next 60 days, these talks will focus on the status of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its ability to enrich uranium. In exchange, Iran is likely to receive significant economic incentives, including access to billions of dollars of frozen assets and sanctions relief. Some elements of the deal are expected to be announced when the deal is signed, while others may never be publicly acknowledged. Both sides will begin a rapid campaign to control the narrative.

Why does it matter?

The United States and Iran will both claim victory, but both have lost in important ways. For President Trump, the primary success of the deal is the reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which one-fifth of oil and gas trade passes. This will ease global energy markets, but the strait’s closure was a direct consequence of the war. Although the Iranian regime has survived, it will emerge from the war with a crippling economic crisis and downgraded military capabilities.

The deal is a huge relief for Arab Gulf states, which have borne the brunt of continued Iranian attacks and faced severe economic disruption. Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar had no alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for maritime exports, and they will benefit particularly from the resumption of critical oil and gas flows.

The deal is a major blow for Israel and specifically Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who considers Iran an existential threat. The Iran war has been broadly supported in Israel, and Netanyahu faces a tough election in the coming months.

What’s next?

The Lebanon front holds the greatest potential to derail the deal. Iranian leaders claimed that the deal includes a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, but Prime Minister Netanyahu has refuted that claim, and Israel is unlikely to withdraw from areas of southern Lebanon that it occupies. President Trump would need to expend significant political capital to pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu to end military operations in Lebanon, with uncertain prospects for success.

Technical negotiations on Iran’s nuclear file will prove difficult. The last time Iran and the United States secured a comprehensive nuclear accord was in 2015, after two years of negotiations. Tehran has signaled an unwillingness to compromise on key demands and will try to play for time, knowing that President Trump is unlikely to resume the military campaign in the run up to the November midterm elections.

President Trump will meet European and Arab leaders at the G7 summit in France this week, June 15–17. European allies will try to demonstrate that they can bolster the deal by contributing naval assets to an initiative to secure the Strait of Hormuz, something President Trump has long demanded.

What’s under the radar?

The scope, nature, and timing of economic incentives provided to Iran remain unclear. Iranian media reported that the United States will release $12 billion of frozen Iranian assets up front, but U.S. officials deny this. Creative ways of channeling money to Iran could allow President Trump to differentiate this deal from past deals that he harshly criticized. Recent reporting alleges that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) secretly agreed to release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for Iran ceasing its attacks on the small Gulf nation. The UAE denies the reports. Arab Gulf states could also increase their engagement with Iran to create economic interdependence, with the aim of incentivizing Iran not to attack them again.

The Israeli and U.S. strikes have significantly downgraded Iran’s military capabilities, but the deal appears to sustain key sources of Iran’s power projection throughout the Middle East. When announcing the deal, neither President Trump nor Iranian leaders mentioned various issues that have long vexed the region, including Iran’s ballistic missile program or its support for its partners and proxies. As such, Iran will continue to represent a threat to Arab states and Israel.

Will Todman is the chief of staff of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Mona Yacoubian is director and senior adviser of the Middle East Program at CSIS.

State of Play, a podcast and commentary series produced by the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department, features timely analysis from CSIS’s leading regional experts on geopolitical developments and the future of the international order.