Risk and Foresight Group

The Risk and Foresight Group at CSIS provides leaders in government and business with insights into the forces of change reshaping the global environment through continuous horizon scanning of trends in human population, energy resources and the environment, technology, information, international security and geopolitics, and governance

 

The Risk and Foresight Group is organized around several ongoing research initiatives.

  • Strategic Insights is a biweekly newsletter on a topic of pressing geopolitical risk at the intersection of government and business interests.
  • Seven Revolutions identifies the most important macrotrends shaping our world to 2050 through an ongoing stream of research and an engaging live/virtual presentation.
  • The Congressional Foresight Initiative[page coming April 2021] brings together a broad bipartisan group of congressional staff to explore long-range trends in seminars with experts in the field.
  • The Global Security Forum is CSIS’s annual flagship gathering of bipartisan national security experts on emerging challenges.

The Risk and Foresight Group was chartered to focus CSIS’s cross-cutting analysis in near-term geopolitical risk, and mid- to long-term futures (2030 to 2050 and beyond). It is also a center of experimentation for innovative use of foresight methodologies such as scenario planning, data analysis, modeling, simulation, and gaming to help leaders and organizations grapple with an era of continuous change.

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Back to (Caring about) the Future

U.S. lawmakers and their staff will need to improve their use of foresight to ensure long-term national prosperity and security. In response, CSIS’s International Security Program and Congressional Affairs team partnered to create the Congressional Foresight Initiative.

Report by Riley McCabe, Madeline Clough, Elizabeth Hoffman, and Erol Yayboke — September 29, 2021

Macrotrends to Watch in 2021

Please join the CSIS Risk and Foresight Group for a discussion with three leading world-watchers on the macrotrends they believe will play an outsized role in shaping 2021 and beyond.

Event — March 10, 2021

Global Political Protests and the Future of Democracy

From Moscow to Yangon, political protests are the most visible front in the global contest between authoritarianism and democracy and a top issue for the new Biden administration.

Commentary by Riley McCabe and Samuel Brannen — March 5, 2021

Promote and Build: A Strategic Approach to Digital Authoritarianism

Digital authoritarianism transcends boundaries while subverting human rights and democratic principles. This brief presents a strategic approach grounded in fundamental principles and framed around promoting resilience while building affirmative alternatives.

Brief by Erol Yayboke and Samuel Brannen — October 15, 2020

Covid-19 Reshapes the Future

Covid-19 marks the beginning of an era of continuous, rapid change across seven global macrotrends.

Report by Christian Stirling Haig, Habiba Ahmed, Henry Newton, and Samuel Brannen — July 28, 2020

The George Floyd Protests: A Global Rallying Cry for Democracy

The U.S. government response to the demands of protesters across the country is a test for global democracy at a time of intensifying competition with authoritarian regimes worldwide.

Commentary by Habiba Ahmed, Henry Newton, Christian Stirling Haig, and Samuel Brannen — June 11, 2020

Forecasting Covid-19’s Course

Government and business leaders often continue to plan for a V-shaped Covid-19 recovery; CSIS scholars anticipate a much longer road ahead.

Commentary by Sarah Ladislaw and Samuel Brannen — May 20, 2020