The Middle East Futures Project

The Middle East Futures Project explores future scenarios for the Middle East in the shadow of the Iran war.

The Middle East Futures Project will deploy a variety of tools and approaches to deepen our understanding of how regional and global dynamics are changing in the shadow of the Iran war. The Futures Project will explore shifting geopolitical dynamics both within the Middle East and between external actors and the region; new patterns of investment, trade and aid; as well as the conflict’s impact on economic diversification, emerging regional security approaches, and the shifting role of regional mediators. It will bridge regional actors with U.S. public and private sector stakeholders through a series of public events and private workshops to deepen understanding of the region’s momentous changes and develop policy recommendations.

This initiative is made possible by general support to CSIS.

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The Middle East Futures Papers

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

As a core element of the Middle East Futures Project, the Middle East Futures Papers is a Commentary series that will analyze the Middle East’s current period of disequilibrium, explore future scenarios for the region, and identify potential pathways forward.

Explore the series
Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

The Middle East at a “Hinge Moment”

The Middle East has entered a hinge moment—the old order dying, a new one yet to emerge. As the region’s own actors, fortified by newfound agency, compete to shape this unsettled interval, many trajectories, from renewed conflict to stabilization, remain possible.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — September 9, 2026

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East

The war with Iran has reshaped the Middle East, exposing the limits of U.S. power and raising questions about the future of regional security. As the old order unravels, Tehran may emerge with greater influence in a more multipolar region.

Commentary by Vali Nasr — September 14, 2026

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

The Levantine Opportunity in a Churning Middle East

The wars of the past three years have eroded the fragile order of the Middle East. Now, for the first time in decades, the Levant has a chance to create a new alignment and build a regional order centered around strong, inclusive states, stability, and open trade.

Commentary by Paul Salem — September 21, 2026

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium

Saudi Arabia faces a new era of uncertainty. The Iran war has exposed the kingdom to the vulnerabilities of regional conflict, prompting Riyadh to rethink its security partnerships, energy strategy, and Vision 2030 ambitions.

Commentary by Michael Ratney — September 24, 2026

Featured Events

Featured Analysis

Photo: Manon Roca / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

Photo: Manon Roca / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

Lebanon’s Imperiled Transition: The Need for an Urgent Reset

As Lebanon approaches the two-year mark of the new leadership’s mandate, progress toward real sovereignty and fundamental reform appears dangerously stalled. An urgent strategic reboot is necessary.

Commentary by Paul Salem — November 5, 2026

Featured Report

Photo: Omar Albaw / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

Photo: Omar Albaw / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

The Self-Reliance Dividend: The Imperative of Syrian Refugees’ Economic Inclusion

The current model for refugee management has failed. Will Todman argues that Gulf and Western actors should advance a new approach that prioritizes Syrian refugees’ self-reliance and private sector integration, making them part of the regional connectivity agenda.

Report by Will Todman — October 5, 2026

Featured Briefs

Photo: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Photo: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Saudi Vision 2030 at Ten

Ten years after its launch, Vision 2030 remains Saudi Arabia's roadmap for resilience. The Iran war reinforced—not weakened—the case for economic diversification, with AI, digital infrastructure, and strategic adaptation now central to the kingdom's long-term ambitions.

Brief by Michael Ratney and Adel Hamaizia — July 6, 2026

Photo: OMAR ALBAW/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: OMAR ALBAW/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Syria’s Promise and Challenges One Year After Assad’s Fall

A year after Assad’s fall, the promise of a new Syria hinges on the transitional government’s ability to garner domestic and international support. 

Brief by Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman — December 4, 2025

Featured Charts

Photo: AFP/Getty Images

Photo: AFP/Getty Images

Preparing for the Next Crisis

This installment of Charting the Middle East highlights the importance of early warning systems, emergency communications, and community-based warning mechanisms amid recurrent surges of conflict in the region.

Newsletter by Josiane Atallah — November 5, 2026

All The Middle East Futures Project Content

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Preparing for the Next Crisis

This installment of Charting the Middle East highlights the importance of early warning systems, emergency communications, and community-based warning mechanisms amid recurrent surges of conflict in the region.

Newsletter by Josiane Atallah — November 5, 2026

Risk to Refugee Return

This installment of Charting the Middle East highlights how the scale of unexploded ordnance (UXO) contamination, relative to returning populations, varies across Syria.

Newsletter by Ninar Fawal — October 22, 2026

Avoiding Another Long War in Yemen

In the wake of the Riyadh airport attacks, Saudi Arabia risks getting sucked into another long, costly war that ultimately only emboldens the Houthis and deepens the regional conflict. Allison Minor outlines a better approach.

Commentary by Allison Minor — October 15, 2026

The Price of Exclusion

This installment of Charting the Middle East spotlights how Western aid cuts have rendered the current international response to Syrian refugees obsolete.

Newsletter by Will Todman — October 7, 2026