The Middle East Futures Project

The Middle East Futures Project explores future scenarios for the Middle East in the shadow of the Iran war.

The Middle East Futures Project will deploy a variety of tools and approaches to deepen our understanding of how regional and global dynamics are changing in the shadow of the Iran war. The Futures Project will explore shifting geopolitical dynamics both within the Middle East and between external actors and the region; new patterns of investment, trade and aid; as well as the conflict’s impact on economic diversification, emerging regional security approaches, and the shifting role of regional mediators. It will bridge regional actors with U.S. public and private sector stakeholders through a series of public events and private workshops to deepen understanding of the region’s momentous changes and develop policy recommendations.

This initiative is made possible by general support to CSIS.

Contact Information

Ninar Fawal
Program Manager and Research Associate, Middle East Program
[email protected]

The Middle East Futures Papers

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

As a core element of the Middle East Futures Project, the Middle East Futures Papers is a Commentary series that will analyze the Middle East’s current period of disequilibrium, explore future scenarios for the region, and identify potential pathways forward.

Explore the series

The Middle East at a “Hinge Moment”

The Middle East has entered a hinge moment—the old order dying, a new one yet to emerge. As the region’s own actors, fortified by newfound agency, compete to shape this unsettled interval, many trajectories, from renewed conflict to stabilization, remain possible.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — September 9, 2026

Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East

The war with Iran has reshaped the Middle East, exposing the limits of U.S. power and raising questions about the future of regional security. As the old order unravels, Tehran may emerge with greater influence in a more multipolar region.

Commentary by Vali Nasr — September 14, 2026

The Levantine Opportunity in a Churning Middle East

The wars of the past three years have eroded the fragile order of the Middle East. Now, for the first time in decades, the Levant has a chance to create a new alignment and build a regional order centered around strong, inclusive states, stability, and open trade.

Commentary by Paul Salem — September 21, 2026

Saudi Arabia Faces the Era of Disequilibrium

Saudi Arabia faces a new era of uncertainty. The Iran war has exposed the kingdom to the vulnerabilities of regional conflict, prompting Riyadh to rethink its security partnerships, energy strategy, and Vision 2030 ambitions.

Commentary by Michael Ratney — September 24, 2026

Featured Events

A Conversation with Lebanon's Minister of Finance, H.E. Yassine Jaber

September 21, 2026 • 11:00 am – 12:00 pm EDT

Hosted by Middle East Program

The Middle East’s Economic Outlook: Risks, Resilience, and the Path Ahead

July 15, 2026 • 3:00 – 3:35 pm EDT

Hosted by Middle East Program

Middle East Futures: U.S. Policy in an Emerging Regional Order

September 28, 2026 • 11:30 am – 12:30 pm EDT

Join the CSIS Middle East Program for an expert panel examining U.S. policy in an emerging regional order.

Hosted by Middle East Program

The Middle East’s Economic Outlook: Risks, Resilience, and the Path Ahead

July 15, 2026 • 3:00 – 3:35 pm EDT

Hosted by Middle East Program

Trump's Iran Deal: What Comes Next? | State of Play

June 15, 2026 • 12:30 – 1:15 pm EDT

Featured Analysis

Photo: Houthi Media Center/Handout via Xinhua/Getty Images

Is the United States Abandoning Saudi Arabia at Its Moment of Need?

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are putting its “upgraded relationship” with the United States to the test.

Commentary by Michael Ratney — September 23, 2026

Photo: Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2026

The Houthis Enter the Iran War and Everything Gets Worse

Commentary by Michael Ratney — August 13, 2026

Beyond the Rome Talks: Pilot Zones, Hezbollah, and Rebuilding State Authority in South Lebanon

Commentary by Paul Salem — July 31, 2026

Will the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Proceed?

Commentary by Michael Ratney — July 23, 2026

Featured Report

Photo: Omar Albaw / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images

The Self-Reliance Dividend: The Imperative of Syrian Refugees’ Economic Inclusion

The current model for refugee management has failed. Will Todman argues that Gulf and Western actors should advance a new approach that prioritizes Syrian refugees’ self-reliance and private sector integration, making them part of the regional connectivity agenda.

Report by Will Todman — October 5, 2026

Featured Briefs

Photo: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Saudi Vision 2030 at Ten

Ten years after its launch, Vision 2030 remains Saudi Arabia's roadmap for resilience. The Iran war reinforced—not weakened—the case for economic diversification, with AI, digital infrastructure, and strategic adaptation now central to the kingdom's long-term ambitions.

Brief by Michael Ratney and Adel Hamaizia — July 6, 2026

Syria’s Promise and Challenges One Year After Assad’s Fall

A year after Assad’s fall, the promise of a new Syria hinges on the transitional government’s ability to garner domestic and international support.

Brief by Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman — December 4, 2025

Featured Charts

Photo: Abdel Hameed Al Nasier/ILO via Flickr

The Price of Exclusion

This installment of Charting the Middle East spotlights how Western aid cuts have rendered the current international response to Syrian refugees obsolete.

Newsletter by Will Todman — October 7, 2026