The Middle East Futures Project

The Middle East Futures Project explores future scenarios for the Middle East in the shadow of the Iran war.

The Middle East Futures Project will deploy a variety of tools and approaches to deepen our understanding of how regional and global dynamics are changing in the shadow of the Iran war. The Futures Project will explore shifting geopolitical dynamics both within the Middle East and between external actors and the region; new patterns of investment, trade and aid; as well as the conflict’s impact on economic diversification, emerging regional security approaches, and the shifting role of regional mediators. It will bridge regional actors with U.S. public and private sector stakeholders through a series of public events and private workshops to deepen understanding of the region’s momentous changes and develop policy recommendations.

This initiative is made possible by general support to CSIS.

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The Middle East Futures Papers

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

As a core element of the Middle East Futures Project, the Middle East Futures Papers is a Commentary series that will analyze the Middle East’s current period of disequilibrium, explore future scenarios for the region, and identify potential pathways forward.

Explore the series
Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images; AFP/Getty Images

The Middle East at a “Hinge Moment”

The Middle East has entered a hinge moment—the old order dying, a new one yet to emerge. As the region’s own actors, fortified by newfound agency, compete to shape this unsettled interval, many trajectories, from renewed conflict to stabilization, remain possible.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — September 9, 2026

Featured Analysis

Photo: Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2026

Photo: Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2026

The Houthis Enter the Iran War and Everything Gets Worse

The Houthis’ entry into the Iran war is creating a dangerous new front for Saudi Arabia—potentially forcing it into a military escalation that the United States wants to avoid.

Commentary by Michael Ratney — August 13, 2026

Featured Briefs

Photo: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Photo: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Saudi Vision 2030 at Ten

Ten years after its launch, Vision 2030 remains Saudi Arabia's roadmap for resilience. The Iran war reinforced—not weakened—the case for economic diversification, with AI, digital infrastructure, and strategic adaptation now central to the kingdom's long-term ambitions.

Brief by Michael Ratney and Adel Hamaizia — July 6, 2026

Photo: OMAR ALBAW/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Photo: OMAR ALBAW/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

Syria’s Promise and Challenges One Year After Assad’s Fall

A year after Assad’s fall, the promise of a new Syria hinges on the transitional government’s ability to garner domestic and international support. 

Brief by Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman — December 4, 2025

Featured Events

Featured Charts

Photo: Mohammed Al-Rifai/picture alliance/Getty Images

Photo: Mohammed Al-Rifai/picture alliance/Getty Images

Open for Business

This installment of Charting the Middle East spotlights growing trade volumes between Syria and select countries or regions since the fall of Assad and the lifting of sanctions.

Newsletter by Philip Luck — August 20, 2026

All The Middle East Futures Project Content

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The Middle East at a “Hinge Moment”

The Middle East has entered a hinge moment—the old order dying, a new one yet to emerge. As the region’s own actors, fortified by newfound agency, compete to shape this unsettled interval, many trajectories, from renewed conflict to stabilization, remain possible.

Commentary by Mona Yacoubian — September 9, 2026

Open for Business

This installment of Charting the Middle East spotlights growing trade volumes between Syria and select countries or regions since the fall of Assad and the lifting of sanctions.

Newsletter by Philip Luck — August 20, 2026

The Localization Prescription

This installment of Charting the Middle East examines efforts to reduce reliance on imported pharmaceuticals, as the Iran war heightens the risk for certain medicine shortages.

Newsletter by Kira Nygren — August 6, 2026

Will the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Proceed?

President Trump's last-minute link between the U.S.-Saudi nuclear agreement and Israel normalization injects new uncertainty into an already contentious deal.

Commentary by Michael Ratney — July 23, 2026

What the Iran War Is Costing Joint Gulf-U.S. Ambitions for AI

For decades, Gulf states invested trillions into the U.S. economy, tied their security to Washington, and bet that alignment was the price of protection. The Iran war raised a clear question: Was alignment the cause of the threat, rather than the cure for it?

Commentary by Joseph A. Farsakh — July 15, 2026